SADR CITY'S NATIVE SON AND HIS SHOES: MUTED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004046

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2013
TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: SADR CITY'S NATIVE SON AND HIS SHOES: MUTED
REACTIONS, SO FAR, IN THE STREET; QUESTIONS REMAIN
REGARDING PLANNED U.S. DRAWDOWN AND IRANIAN INFLUENCE

Classified By: Deputy Polcouns John Fox, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Reactions in Sadr City to its native son's
Muntader al-Zaidi's shoe-throwing incident during President
Bush's recent press conference in Baghdad led to varied --
though mostly muted -- reactions in the capital's largest
district, home to approximately 40 percent of the city's
population and its poorest residents. A much-publicized
demonstration carried by Arab media numbered only in the
hundreds, a small gathering in comparison to past marches and
the area's total population. The IA colonel in charge of
Sadr City security noted that "they wanted a million-man
march and only got a few hundred." A diverse sample of
residents were largely circumspect in their responses. One
college engineering student remarked, somewhat sarcastically,
that the incident simply reflected Iraq's newfound democracy.
The district chairman told Poloff that the Government of
Iraqi (GOI) had chosen to avert its attention from the
sprawling neighborhood, criticizing that "our leaders do not
know the reality of Sadr City." A prominent sheikh, head of
Sadr City's large Jamillah market, suggested that prolonged
detention of al-Zaidi could lead to more unrest in the run-up
to January 30, 2009 provincial elections. END SUMMARY.

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NATIVE SON: HERO?
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2. (C) A sample of Sadr City residents (government
officials, students, ISF, shopkeepers, unemployed laborers
and PRT contractors) mostly downplayed the shoe-throwing
incident by the city's native son. The IA colonel in charge
of Iraqi army units in the city said that the much-hyped
demonstration carried widely by Arab media had only resulted
in hundreds, not thousands, of anti-coalition protesters
marching in a few Sadr streets. The IA chief noted there had
been no security problems throughout the one-day
demonstration, which he said was held entirely within a
400-meter radius of the main Sadr office. (NOTE: Coalition
forces in Sadr City reported no follow-on shoe-throwing
incidents directed at their patrols in the southern sector of
the city. END NOTE.)


3. (SBU) Two college students urged Americans to be careful
and treat Iraqis "with respect" despite the disrespect shown
to the U.S. president. An engineering student pointed to the
incident (somewhat sarcastically) as a sign of Iraqi
democracy, adding that he had seen images of eggs being
thrown at past presidents in the U.S.; this situation should
not be viewed any differently. Another student went on to
urge that as U.S. troops departed cities in Iraq, they should
maintain a nearby presence in order to assist ISF if fighting
with militias again broke out, which he implied was likely to
happen -- "first, you need to honor the agreement, other ones
can follow, including possible American bases, but only if
Iraq needs them later on." (COMMENT: Average residents in
Sadr City repeatedly criticize the GOI for its lack of effort
or willingness to educate Iraqis about SA details and the
planned U.S. combat unit drawdown by June 2009. Dozens have
told Poloff that they welcome the day when U.S. troops are no
longer needed to patrol city streets in humvees and MRAPs --
Qlonger needed to patrol city streets in humvees and MRAPs --
but only when ISF units are strong enough to perform these
functions. Iraqi army chiefs and residents seem to agree
that sufficiently independent ISF capability in Sadr City
will take years, not months. END COMMENT.)

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PROLONGED DETENTION,
MORE PROBLEMS AHEAD
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4. (C) Prominent Sadr City Sheikh Mohammed (in charge of the
area's Jamillah market, a breadbasket for the capital)
apologized on behalf of Sadr City for the shoe-throwing. He
criticized al-Zaidi as an "attention seeker" only; most
Iraqis, while not in favor of indefinite U.S. military
occupation, recognized that a close partnership would be
required to sustain recent security improvements. Sheikh
Mohammed warned that a prolonged detention of Sadr's now
famous native son could lead to more demonstrations in Sadr
City and complicate election preparations. He urged the U.S.
to help refocus GOI leaders' attention on past promises for
the area, particularly investments in housing and

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infrastructure outlined in the GOI's "ten billion over ten
years" development plan. Such resources, he said, would be
more persuasive long-term symbols for Sadr City's poor
residents than al-Zaidi's shoes.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) Immediate reactions in Sadr City to the shoe-throwing
incident did not encompass large portions of the city. Media
images conveying the one-day street demonstration exaggerated
the event. The sprawling district's residents seem to
acknowledge that the relative calm in the city is dependent
on a continued U.S. partnership, despite strong nationalistic
instincts to see U.S. combat troops leave streets as soon as
possible. Notably, a group of newly reconstituted Iraqi
police in Sadr City (seven of eight of whom said they were
natives of Sadr City) expressed concern about the timing and
form of the planned U.S. troop drawdown. One sergeant in
particular, clearly the leader among the group of IP, openly
questioned whether "all coalition forces" would leave Sadr
City. He added bluntly that "we need U.S. support here
because Iran is already living beside us in the city."
CROCKER