SADR CITY'S NATIVE SON AND HIS SHOES: MUTED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004046 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2013 TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL SUBJECT: SADR CITY'S NATIVE SON AND HIS SHOES: MUTED REACTIONS, SO FAR, IN THE STREET; QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING PLANNED U.S. DRAWDOWN AND IRANIAN INFLUENCE Classified By: Deputy Polcouns John Fox, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Reactions in Sadr City to its native son's Muntader al-Zaidi's shoe-throwing incident during President Bush's recent press conference in Baghdad led to varied -- though mostly muted -- reactions in the capital's largest district, home to approximately 40 percent of the city's population and its poorest residents. A much-publicized demonstration carried by Arab media numbered only in the hundreds, a small gathering in comparison to past marches and the area's total population. The IA colonel in charge of Sadr City security noted that "they wanted a million-man march and only got a few hundred." A diverse sample of residents were largely circumspect in their responses. One college engineering student remarked, somewhat sarcastically, that the incident simply reflected Iraq's newfound democracy. The district chairman told Poloff that the Government of Iraqi (GOI) had chosen to avert its attention from the sprawling neighborhood, criticizing that "our leaders do not know the reality of Sadr City." A prominent sheikh, head of Sadr City's large Jamillah market, suggested that prolonged detention of al-Zaidi could lead to more unrest in the run-up to January 30, 2009 provincial elections. END SUMMARY. -------------- NATIVE SON: HERO? -------------- ¶2. (C) A sample of Sadr City residents (government officials, students, ISF, shopkeepers, unemployed laborers and PRT contractors) mostly downplayed the shoe-throwing incident by the city's native son. The IA colonel in charge of Iraqi army units in the city said that the much-hyped demonstration carried widely by Arab media had only resulted in hundreds, not thousands, of anti-coalition protesters marching in a few Sadr streets. The IA chief noted there had been no security problems throughout the one-day demonstration, which he said was held entirely within a 400-meter radius of the main Sadr office. (NOTE: Coalition forces in Sadr City reported no follow-on shoe-throwing incidents directed at their patrols in the southern sector of the city. END NOTE.) ¶3. (SBU) Two college students urged Americans to be careful and treat Iraqis "with respect" despite the disrespect shown to the U.S. president. An engineering student pointed to the incident (somewhat sarcastically) as a sign of Iraqi democracy, adding that he had seen images of eggs being thrown at past presidents in the U.S.; this situation should not be viewed any differently. Another student went on to urge that as U.S. troops departed cities in Iraq, they should maintain a nearby presence in order to assist ISF if fighting with militias again broke out, which he implied was likely to happen -- "first, you need to honor the agreement, other ones can follow, including possible American bases, but only if Iraq needs them later on." (COMMENT: Average residents in Sadr City repeatedly criticize the GOI for its lack of effort or willingness to educate Iraqis about SA details and the planned U.S. combat unit drawdown by June 2009. Dozens have told Poloff that they welcome the day when U.S. troops are no longer needed to patrol city streets in humvees and MRAPs -- Qlonger needed to patrol city streets in humvees and MRAPs -- but only when ISF units are strong enough to perform these functions. Iraqi army chiefs and residents seem to agree that sufficiently independent ISF capability in Sadr City will take years, not months. END COMMENT.) -------------- PROLONGED DETENTION, MORE PROBLEMS AHEAD -------------- ¶4. (C) Prominent Sadr City Sheikh Mohammed (in charge of the area's Jamillah market, a breadbasket for the capital) apologized on behalf of Sadr City for the shoe-throwing. He criticized al-Zaidi as an "attention seeker" only; most Iraqis, while not in favor of indefinite U.S. military occupation, recognized that a close partnership would be required to sustain recent security improvements. Sheikh Mohammed warned that a prolonged detention of Sadr's now famous native son could lead to more demonstrations in Sadr City and complicate election preparations. He urged the U.S. to help refocus GOI leaders' attention on past promises for the area, particularly investments in housing and BAGHDAD 00004046 002 OF 002 infrastructure outlined in the GOI's "ten billion over ten years" development plan. Such resources, he said, would be more persuasive long-term symbols for Sadr City's poor residents than al-Zaidi's shoes. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Immediate reactions in Sadr City to the shoe-throwing incident did not encompass large portions of the city. Media images conveying the one-day street demonstration exaggerated the event. The sprawling district's residents seem to acknowledge that the relative calm in the city is dependent on a continued U.S. partnership, despite strong nationalistic instincts to see U.S. combat troops leave streets as soon as possible. Notably, a group of newly reconstituted Iraqi police in Sadr City (seven of eight of whom said they were natives of Sadr City) expressed concern about the timing and form of the planned U.S. troop drawdown. One sergeant in particular, clearly the leader among the group of IP, openly questioned whether "all coalition forces" would leave Sadr City. He added bluntly that "we need U.S. support here because Iran is already living beside us in the city." CROCKER