SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS A CONCERN FOR BAGHDAD'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004004 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2013 TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL SUBJECT: SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS A CONCERN FOR BAGHDAD'S UPCOMING PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTION Classified By: Deputy Polcouns, John Fox reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (U) This is a Baghdad PRT Reporting Cable. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Provincial elections in Baghdad involve big numbers, a wide range of conditions and complicated planning -- like most things in the capital area. Over 2,400 candidates will compete for the 57 positions comprising the next Baghdad Provincial Council; 106 political entities submitted candidate nominations. Election officials are planning for 1,771 polling centers across the province. One senior electoral official is concerned about IDPs,(Internally Displaced Person) ability to vote in Baghdad,s rural qadas and raised concerns about security, but both managers believe preparations are on track and that turnout will be good. END SUMMARY. -------------- IDPs -------------- ¶3. (C) The Karkh Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) manager, Hussein Al Bayati, has told PRT officers that he is concerned that IDPs displaced from urban Baghdad to the rural qadas may not be able to vote. Al Bayati indicated that most IDPs in these areas never registered as IDPs with the Ministry of Migration and Displacement and are therefore not on the special IDP voter registry. Unregistered IDPs also did not update their residence information during the voter registration period in July or during the Exhibition and Challenge Period. Al Bayati felt displaced persons, failure to register as IDPs or to update their information was due to fear and the difficulty of the process. He likewise indicated that the Independent High Electoral Commission's (IHEC) public awareness campaign was ineffective in informing IDPs how they will be able to vote. IDPs in the qadas are unlikely to return to urban Baghdad to vote. Mr. Al Bayati anticipated some IDPs will be turned away from the polling centers in the rural qadas and is preparing for possible disturbances as a result. -------------- Election Day Security -------------- ¶4. (C) The Rusafa GEO manager, Muhsen Hassan, raised several concerns about security in his area of responsibility, which includes Sadr City. Due to the continuation of military operations, the Iraqi Army (IA) rather than the Iraqi Police (IP) provided security for voter registration centers (VRC) during the July voter registration update. Hassan related that the presence of the IA at the VRCs in July deterred people from visiting. The people in the area do not view the IA division assigned there favorably. Making matters worse, the IA placed numerous soldiers at the VRCs, sometimes as many as 20 rather than the standard four. The manager further noted that in one instance a VRC was used as a post for 150 preparing for an operation. He has requested that either Special Forces or the IP provide security for the polling centers in Sadr City on Election Day. ¶5. (C) Al Bayati indicated that security on the Karkh side of the Province is good and he has fruitful relationships with both the IA and IP. He is, however, concerned about the ability of the IP to guard the polling centers on Election Day. The IP had difficulty staffing the VRCs in his area and there will be a greater number of polling centers than VRCs to guard. 6.(C) Both GEO managers expressed concern about the use of Sawha members for security in the rural Qadas of Baghdad Province. They noted that the movement has become political, with those not being paid by MOD allowed to register as candidates. Due to a potential conflict of interest, they believe it best that the Sawha not assist in guarding polling centers, but rather be used for patrols or checkpoints. Qcenters, but rather be used for patrols or checkpoints. ¶7. (C) The GEO managers were also in agreement with regard to the role of Coalition Forces (CF). Both opposed a CF presence at the polling centers, but hoped to see CF on patrols, at checkpoints and in main squares on Election Day. They indicated that a CF presence would result in a larger voter turnout, believing voters see CF as a deterrent to AQI and JAM. Likewise, both believe IP should guard the polling centers, with IA as a second ring of security. The GEO managers have related these concerns to IHEC, but noted that they have been unsuccessful in their requests for meetings with commanders at the Baghdad Operations Command (BOC). The PRT has arranged a meeting between the BOC and the GEO managers for mid-December. ¶8. (SBU) Al Bayati and Hassan expressed concern over their BAGHDAD 00004004 002 OF 002 personal safety and inquired about the availability of weapons. Neither has one, and their bodyguards are unarmed. Discussions with IHEC revealed that many mid-level staff are also concerned for their safety, but have received no assistance from IHEC or MOI. -------------- VOTER TURNOUT AND PUBLIC OUTREACH -------------- ¶9. (U) Polls conducted in October 2008 indicated fewer people in Baghdad Province intended to vote in the provincial elections than had expressed their intention in July 2008. Both Al Bayati and Hassan felt this would change, however, once the candidates were announced. They indicated that the Sunnis in Baghdad Province's rural qadas are eager to participate. While more outreach needs to be conducted among Baghdad,s urban Shia, they believe political campaigning and the issuance of religious Fatwas will motivate individuals to visit the polls. Both GEOs indicated that in addition to IHEC,s Get out the Vote campaign, they are meeting with local district and qada leaders as well as universities to conduct civic education. -------------- TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Al Bayati and Hassan requested CF assistance with communications on Election Day. Both rely on spotty cell-phone connections to communicate with their staff at the polling centers. Additionally, both GEO managers believed CF assistance with the transportation of election materials is needed. It is their fear that the materials will not arrive at the polling centers on time and requested aerial or ground support for the convoys. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) PRT staff have been impressed with the level of preparation and coordination between the two GEOs, but the scale and complexity of balloting in Baghdad (which will range from densely populated urban neighborhoods to remote rural towns) will require an intense, sustained effort over the next 45 days. Election officials, observations suggest that election day security and effective coordination of transportation of materials pose the largest challenges to smooth elections. We understand that the BOC prefers the IA to take the lead for security in the Province; both GEOs expressed an interest in seeing the IP guarding polling centers. Those and other detailed arrangements for securing polling centers remain to be resolved. CROCKER