SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS A CONCERN FOR BAGHDAD'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004004

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2013
TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS A CONCERN FOR BAGHDAD'S
UPCOMING PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTION

Classified By: Deputy Polcouns, John Fox reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (U) This is a Baghdad PRT Reporting Cable.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Provincial elections in Baghdad involve big
numbers, a wide range of conditions and complicated planning
-- like most things in the capital area. Over 2,400
candidates will compete for the 57 positions comprising the
next Baghdad Provincial Council; 106 political entities
submitted candidate nominations. Election officials are
planning for 1,771 polling centers across the province. One
senior electoral official is concerned about
IDPs,(Internally Displaced Person) ability to vote in
Baghdad,s rural qadas and raised concerns about security,
but both managers believe preparations are on track and that
turnout will be good. END SUMMARY.

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IDPs
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3. (C) The Karkh Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) manager,
Hussein Al Bayati, has told PRT officers that he is concerned
that IDPs displaced from urban Baghdad to the rural qadas may
not be able to vote. Al Bayati indicated that most IDPs in
these areas never registered as IDPs with the Ministry of
Migration and Displacement and are therefore not on the
special IDP voter registry. Unregistered IDPs also did not
update their residence information during the voter
registration period in July or during the Exhibition and
Challenge Period. Al Bayati felt displaced persons, failure
to register as IDPs or to update their information was due to
fear and the difficulty of the process. He likewise
indicated that the Independent High Electoral Commission's
(IHEC) public awareness campaign was ineffective in informing
IDPs how they will be able to vote. IDPs in the qadas are
unlikely to return to urban Baghdad to vote. Mr. Al Bayati
anticipated some IDPs will be turned away from the polling
centers in the rural qadas and is preparing for possible
disturbances as a result.

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Election Day Security
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4. (C) The Rusafa GEO manager, Muhsen Hassan, raised several
concerns about security in his area of responsibility, which
includes Sadr City. Due to the continuation of military
operations, the Iraqi ARMY (IA) rather than the Iraqi Police
(IP) provided security for voter registration centers (VRC)
during the July voter registration update. Hassan related
that the presence of the IA at the VRCs in July deterred
people from visiting. The people in the area do not view the
IA division assigned there favorably. Making matters worse,
the IA placed numerous soldiers at the VRCs, sometimes as
many as 20 rather than the standard four. The manager
further noted that in one instance a VRC was used as a post
for 150 preparing for an operation. He has requested that
either Special Forces or the IP provide security for the
polling centers in Sadr City on Election Day.


5. (C) Al Bayati indicated that security on the Karkh side of
the Province is good and he has fruitful relationships with
both the IA and IP. He is, however, concerned about the
ability of the IP to guard the polling centers on Election
Day. The IP had difficulty staffing the VRCs in his area and
there will be a greater number of polling centers than VRCs
to guard.

6.(C) Both GEO managers expressed concern about the use of
Sawha members for security in the rural Qadas of Baghdad
Province. They noted that the movement has become political,
with those not being paid by MOD allowed to register as
candidates. Due to a potential conflict of interest, they
believe it best that the Sawha not assist in guarding polling
centers, but rather be used for patrols or checkpoints.
Qcenters, but rather be used for patrols or checkpoints.


7. (C) The GEO managers were also in agreement with regard to
the role of Coalition Forces (CF). Both opposed a CF
presence at the polling centers, but hoped to see CF on
patrols, at checkpoints and in main squares on Election Day.
They indicated that a CF presence would result in a larger
voter turnout, believing voters see CF as a deterrent to AQI
and JAM. Likewise, both believe IP should guard the polling
centers, with IA as a second ring of security. The GEO
managers have related these concerns to IHEC, but noted that
they have been unsuccessful in their requests for meetings
with commanders at the Baghdad Operations Command (BOC). The
PRT has arranged a meeting between the BOC and the GEO
managers for mid-December.


8. (SBU) Al Bayati and Hassan expressed concern over their

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personal safety and inquired about the availability of
weapons. Neither has one, and their bodyguards are unarmed.
Discussions with IHEC revealed that many mid-level staff are
also concerned for their safety, but have received no
assistance from IHEC or MOI.

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VOTER TURNOUT AND PUBLIC OUTREACH
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9. (U) Polls conducted in October 2008 indicated fewer people
in Baghdad Province intended to vote in the provincial
elections than had expressed their intention in July 2008.
Both Al Bayati and Hassan felt this would change, however,
once the candidates were announced. They indicated that the
Sunnis in Baghdad Province's rural qadas are eager to
participate. While more outreach needs to be conducted among
Baghdad,s urban Shia, they believe political campaigning and
the issuance of religious Fatwas will motivate individuals to
visit the polls. Both GEOs indicated that in addition to
IHEC,s Get out the Vote campaign, they are meeting with
local district and qada leaders as well as universities to
conduct civic education.

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TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS
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10. (SBU) Al Bayati and Hassan requested CF assistance with
communications on Election Day. Both rely on spotty
cell-phone connections to communicate with their staff at the
polling centers. Additionally, both GEO managers believed CF
assistance with the transportation of election materials is
needed. It is their fear that the materials will not arrive
at the polling centers on time and requested aerial or ground
support for the convoys.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) PRT staff have been impressed with the level of
preparation and coordination between the two GEOs, but the
scale and complexity of balloting in Baghdad (which will
range from densely populated urban neighborhoods to remote
rural towns) will require an intense, sustained effort over
the next 45 days. Election officials, observations suggest
that election day security and effective coordination of
transportation of materials pose the largest challenges to
smooth elections. We understand that the BOC prefers the IA
to take the lead for security in the Province; both GEOs
expressed an interest in seeing the IP guarding polling
centers. Those and other detailed arrangements for securing
polling centers remain to be resolved.
CROCKER