SALAH AD-DIN ANALYSIS: TRIBAL POLITICS IN LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003992 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI IZ SUBJECT: SALAH AD-DIN ANALYSIS: TRIBAL POLITICS IN LOCAL ELECTIONS Classified By: PRT Salah ad-Din Team Leader Rick Bell for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). (U) This is a PRT Salah ad Din reporting cable. Summary -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Tribal influence will play an important role in the upcoming provincial elections in Salah ad Din (SaD). That said, there are substantial divisions within the tribes, and limits on the ability of leaders to mobilize political support. The influence of most sheikhs or tribal leaders is localized, whereas the structure of the upcoming elections dictates that candidates must compete province-wide. For example, the Deputy Governor's candidate list features many prominent Juboori leaders, but many other Juboor are running on other prominent lists and tribal voting is expected to be divided within the province. Successful candidates are likely to be those with a combination of appealing qualities: tribal status, personal reputation and policy stance. End Summary. Tribal Lines Still Matter... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Tribal dynamics have been instrumental in the establishment of the current political order in SaD. The 2005 decision by a segment of the Juboori (plural Juboor) tribe to participate in the provincial elections, in spite of a boycott by fellow Sunnis, established them as the predominant political force in SaD. Likewise, in the absence of a strong national government, tribal authority filled a critical gap in rule of law and security in the province. It was the tribally affiliated Sons of Iraq (SOI),rather than the national defense establishment, that drove al-Qaeda and other insurgents out of one neighborhood or village after another. This has made tribal leaders more influential, because they improved the situation of their communities and in many cases pocketed a share of their SOIs' wages. Consequently, many of the top candidates in the January elections will be tribal leaders. ¶3. (C) The most powerful leader of the SaD Juboor, Deputy Governor Abdullah Hussein Jebara, professes to be running on a substantive platform appealing to all non-sectarians (even communists),but a well-placed Juboori told the PRT flatly that it is based on tribal loyalty. The provincial investment commission chairman, a close associate of the Deputy Governor and a fellow Juboori, has told the PRT that voting will be primarily along tribal lines and that the tribe that best mobilizes its members will win. ¶4. (C) Tribal affiliations will also likely be a potent motivator for groups seeking to end the dominance of the Juboor. Members of the Nassiry tribe commented to the PRT during a recent market walk that they planned to vote "against Juboor" rather than for anyone in particular, because the Juboor had monopolized contracts and public services. ...But There are Limits to Tribal Influence -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Divisions within tribes and the structure of the election itself may make it difficult for any one tribe to gain dominance merely by mobilizing its own members. The larger tribes in the province -- e.g. Juboori, Nassiri, Obaydi, Azzah, and Khazraji -- are spread across several districts, and different communities within the same tribe have different interests; infighting even among close relatives in the same village is common. The currently predominant people in SaD are not the entire Juboori tribe, but a narrow subset. Juboor from Tikrit look down on Juboor from Balad. In a stark example of intra-tribal enmity, a Juboori from Balad district assassinated Sheikh Naji Hussein Jebara of Tikrit district, Qassassinated Sheikh Naji Hussein Jebara of Tikrit district, the top Juboori sheikh for SaD Province (and the Deputy Governor's older brother),in 2007. ¶6. (SBU) Splits among tribes can be seen in the way that candidates from the province's largest tribe, the Juboori, have aligned themselves with a variety of parties: Dr. Amer Ayash al-Jubouri, Dean of the Tikrit University Law school, created the Salah ad-Din National List; Deputy Governor Abdullah Jebara al-Jubouri leads the Front for the Iraqi National Project (Jemoo'); another leading Juboori tribe member, Abu Mazen, the Governor's Assistant for Security BAGHDAD 00003992 002 OF 002 Affairs, is running on Allawi's Iraq National List. These are just a few of the many SaD political parties that Juboori tribe members have joined, and each Juboori candidate will seek to garner support from local members of his extended family, clan and tribe. ¶7. (SBU) Few tribal sheikhs exert influence beyond the district level in SaD, which will make it difficult for them to mobilize sufficient numbers of voters in a province-wide election. Tribal leaders have some influence, not absolute control, and it gets weaker the more distant the kinship. Tribal politics would be more relevant if the elections had been organized with each district as a separate electoral constituency. In order to build the broader support needed to compete province-wide, several politicians and parties have forged province-wide coalitions. Tribal Strategy vs. Issues-Based Campaign -------------- ¶8. (C) The political issue most resonant with people in SaD is the delivery of services and the basic quality of life. Voters are dissatisfied with these and blame the current government. Those not from the same tribe appear more inclined to generalize about the offender's tribe (e.g., the Nassiry tribesmen who said they don't care who they vote for, so long as it's not the Juboor). Despite this resentment, strength and success have an appeal all their own: befriend the powerful, get results. Competence and integrity can override tribal bias as well: in a discussion with the PRT a few days later, premier sheikhs of the same tribe praised the Deputy Governor as a good and honorable man and said they would vote for Dhamin Alaiwi Mutlug (another Juboori PC member from the Deputy Governor's hometown, who is running on a rival list.) CROCKER CROCKER