TRIBES AND TECHNOCRATS MARK PRE-ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003928

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IZ
SUBJECT: TRIBES AND TECHNOCRATS MARK PRE-ELECTION
MANEUVERINGS IN ANBAR

REF: A. (A) BAGHDAD 433

B. (B) BAGHDAD 3008

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John G. Fox for reasons 1.4(b
/d)


1. (U) This is a PRT Anbar reporting cable.


2. (U) SUMMARY: Several months ago, outsiders looking at the
electoral line-up in Anbar Province saw what appeared to be a
head-on match up between the governing Iraqi Islamic Party
(IIP) and its nemesis, the Iraq Awakening Conference (MSI).
Today the electoral battle lines are blurred. The IIP is not
running an independent slate; it is part of a coalition with
tribal entities led by the influential head of Anbar's
Duleimi tribal confederation. Meanwhile, some "awakening"
co-founders have not closed ranks behind the MSI; they will
stand before the voters at the head of their own parties, and
in effect compete with MSI for the same voter pool. Overall,
the emphasis at this stage of the campaign is on a
candidate's tribal ties and technocratic competence; some
candidates appear to be motivated by little more than
political opportunism ) the scramble to switch parties just
to stay in the game. There are no Islamist themes or strident
ideology. END SUMMARY

End of IIP dominance
--------------


3. (U) Although it is too early to predict the outcome in
Anbar of the forthcoming provincial election, one development
appears likely: the Iraqi Islamic Party's (IIP) undisputed
control of the Provincial Council (PC) will end after the
ballots are counted. The chief reason is that the party is
not fielding an independent list; it has entered into a
political bloc called the Coalition of Intellectuals and
Tribes for Development (CITD),which yokes together two
Islamist and two tribal entities.


4. (SBU) According to our IIP contacts, the party will field
only 12 of the 29 candidates on the combined list. Thus, even
if the CITD does well at the polls, the IIP's influence on
the new Council will be diluted by its coalition partners.
The other CITD members are:

-- The Anbar Sheikhs and Intellectuals Party, led by Sheikh
Amer Abdul al-Sulayman al-Assafi. Amer is one of Anbar's most
prominent sheikhs and the head of the province's influential
Duleimi tribal confederation.

-- The Independent National Tribal Grouping led by Sheikh
Omar al-Jabouri.

-- The General Conference of the Iraqi People (GCIP) led by
Adnan Al-Dulaymi. The GCIP is part of the Iraqi Accord Front,
a Sunni Islamist political grouping, which also includes the
IIP.


5. (C) Noteworthy about this combination is that two national
Islamist parties have hitched their electoral fortunes to
"tribal" political entities. Note that the word "tribes"
figures prominently in the coalition's name, whereas as the
word "Islamic" is absent from it. Sheikh Amer and the Duleimi
confederation are not joining forces with Islamist parties,
but the other way around. One explanation, of course, is that
the Islamist parties seek to use Amer's tribal brand name to
retain a behind-the-scenes control of the Provincial Council
after the election. It is more likely, however, that the IIP
sees the handwriting on the wall and has opted to emphasize
the tribal identity of IIP candidates to ensure the party
survives as a local player.


6. (C) The IIP has long been vilified by its detractors on
the local scene, who complain that the party's control over
the Provincial Council is illegitimate, a result only of the
widely boycotted January 2005 election. Only 3,700 votes were
cast in the whole province at that time; the IIP won about
2,700 of them. On this fragile reed, the legitimacy of
Anbar's Provincial Council rests today.
QAnbar's Provincial Council rests today.


7. (C) Moreover, Anbar's IIP has the disadvantage of being
the incumbent party, associated with poor public services,
electricity blackouts, unemployment, and even bearing some
responsibility for the 2005-07 insurgency. Not a few voters
are put off by the IIP's religious roots ) it is an offshoot
of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood ) and blame it for
importing terrorists into the province. Thus the party has
much to gain by downplaying Islamism in favor of a new-found
tribal identification.


8. (C) The IIP's move to combine with Sheikh Amer fits into a

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familiar pattern: the party has long had good ties with the
province's prominent sheikhs, and even voted to make several
of them permanent members of the Provincial Council members.
Indeed, it is virtually impossible to sustain a political
consensus on the local scene based strictly on partisan
politics. Tribal leaders have traditionally affected local
decisions, and are doing so today in the upcoming election.
In a telling example, Sheikh Amer distributed portions of
slaughtered sheep to families in his areas during the recent
Eid Al-Adha holiday, a gesture normally expected of a
paramount sheikh. This time around, however, the gifts bore
CITD markings, a kind of political advertisement.

Political Opportunism
--------------


9. (C) The theme of political opportunism ) scrambling to
stay in the game ) also affects the careers of individual
politicians. IIP loyalist and Provincial Council deputy
chairman Khamees Abtan told us recently that he will be in
the CITD coalition, but listed as a "tribal" candidate, not
an IIP member. Anbar Governor Ma'amoun Sami Rasheed, who has
IIP roots but has sought to be non-partisan while in office,
will also run on the CITD bloc, -- but as a member of Sheikh
Amer's party.


10. (SBU) Earlier this fall, the IIP was part of a
short-lived courtship with its arch-rival, the Iraq Awakening
Conference, or Muatamer Sahawat Al-Iraq (MSI),in an attempt
to forge a grand IIP-MSI-tribal alliance. That effort failed,
but it left the IIP in the rather favorable position of being
teamed up with Sheikh Amer and the Duleimi confederation,
thus complicating MSI's election chances.

MSI: popular but facing challenges
--------------


11. (SBU) Several months ago, outsiders looking at the
forthcoming election saw a match-up between the IIP and MSI.
MSI is the successor of the Anbar Awakening Council, founded
by the late Sheikh Sattar Abu Risha and a group of tribal
leaders in Ramadi in 2006 to drive Al-Qaeda from that city.
During 2008 Sattar's older brother, Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha,
led MSI's metamorphosis from an anti-insurgent security
organization into the political party that he now leads.


12. (SBU) MSI has offices in many Anbari cities, as well as
in cities outside the province. It has strong popular
support, at least in Ramadi, and a well-earned image of
combating terrorism. In October the party appeared to get an
inflow of fresh cash for the election campaign. Today MSI is
registered in a bloc with the smaller National Independent
Gathering, a technocratic party, a move designed to appeal to
voters who are looking for educated, technocratic civic
leaders.


13. (C) However, Ahmed's grasp on the reins of leadership is
questionable. On at least one occasion, he expelled potential
rivals from the MSI inner circle. Last spring, the party held
a conference during which it jettisoned some of its tribal
founders in favor of recruiting technocrats into leadership
positions (Ref A). Moreover, some MSI hard-liners have
criticized Ahmed for sometimes being too chummy with the IIP,
as illustrated by the failed attempt several months ago to
form a bloc with it. That move may cost MSI at the polls,
because it was strongly opposed by several figures previously
close to Sheikh Ahmed.

Power challengers
--------------


14. (U) Several key "awakening" founders have not closed
ranks behind Ahmed, but rather are leading their own parties.
One is Sheikh Hameed Al-Heiss, the leader of the Anbar
Salvation Council, a party with the same name as the 2006-07
anti-insurgent organization in Ramadi. Moyad Al-Thiyabi,
Qanti-insurgent organization in Ramadi. Moyad Al-Thiyabi,
formerly the MSI's secretary general and a trusted aide of
the late Sattar Abu Risha, is on Hameed's list (Ref A).


15. (SBU) Hameed is frequently seen with his political ally,
Sheikh Ali Hatim Suleiman Al-Dulaymi, who is heading up the
National Iraqi Salvation Front (NISF). Ali Hatim is Sheikh
Amer's nephew and the presumed heir to head the Duleimi
confederation. The fact that he is fielding a list in
competition with his uncle suggests a generational-change
sub-text to the forthcoming election. In any case, Ali Hatim
and Hameed Al-Heis are two parts of a three-party coalition,
called the Iraqi Tribes List.


16. (C) It should come as no surprise that MSI is up against
Ali Hatim and Hameed Al-Heiss. One of the defining traits of

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tribal politics is that it combines and re-combines to
prevent any one leader from becoming too strong; Ahmed
appears to be facing that situation. In fact, MSI has never
been the monolithic Sunni movement that many outside
observers have made it out to be (see Ref B).


17. (C) In his public statements, Ahmed typically gives the
impression that he speaks on behalf of a broader movement,
and in that regard his self-promotion is not atypical of many
Iraqi tribal sheikhs. Even the foreign press has inaccurately
identified Ahmed as the leader of the "Sunni Awakening
Movement" (e.g., The Chicago Tribune, July 28),perpetuating
the false impression that there is one monolithic Sunni
tribal movement with Ahmed at its head. Sheikhs Amer, Hameed,
and Ali Hatim are competing in an election, showing that the
MSI is not the only game in town.

Comment
--------------


18. (C) The irony of these pre-election maneuverings is that
the IIP, a religiously based party and home to many Anbari
technocrats, has donned a tribal identity, whereas MSI,
originally a tribal-based security organization, has moved to
recruit technocrats. The movements may reflect the awareness
of both parties of their vulnerabilities. The IIP no doubt
realizes that the appeal of religion as the basis of
political life in Iraq is limited, while MSI knows that the
electorate prefers rule by technocrat, and even has contempt
for semi-illiterate tribal leaders. Both parties seem to be
remedying their vulnerabilities.


19. (C) Some 38 political entities will test their fortunes
in the upcoming polls. We have spoken with many of them. They
tend to be pragmatic, meaning that they are focused on
improving the local quality of life and willing to continue
cooperation with the Coalition. That impression fits with the
overall tenor of the race so far, with its emphasis on tribal
roots, technological competence and a dash of political
opportunism. Many observers here believe that the provincial
election will be contested, but not contentious.

CROCKER