BABIL: WILL MODERATE SADRISTS EMERGE IN ELECTIONS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003860

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: BABIL: WILL MODERATE SADRISTS EMERGE IN ELECTIONS?

Classified By: PRT Babil Team Leader Ken Hillas for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

(U) This is a Babil PRT reporting cable.


1. (SBU) Summary: Senior Sadrist leaders in Babil Province
believe that a more moderate Sadrist presence may emerge if
Muqtada al-Sadr's followers comply with his recent directive
to participate in the upcoming provincial
elections. Da'wa provincial leaders are hopeful about the
prospects for cooperation with Sadrists in the new
Provincial Council (PC). Our Babil interlocutors are
divided, however, over how much change the elections will
bring. Some expect that ISCI's political dominance will be
reduced; others believe the party's deep pockets and its
influence with the ARMY and police will help them retain
power. Sadrists still have no clear signal from Muqtada
about whom to support, thus the battle between moderate and
hard-line Sadrists in Babil continues. End summary.

Da'wa, Sadrists Focus on Beating ISCI
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2. (C) In a joint December 5 meeting with the PRT, Da'wa
deputy party chief Dr. Ne'ama and moderate Sadrist Murtada
Kamil, both PC members, said that that their parties are
focused on beating the province's dominant party, ISCI.
Da'wa and the Sadrists are running separately in the
elections, but expressed hoped that the parties could work
together in the new PC. Dr. Ne'ama said that the Sadrist
call to participate in provincial elections will increase the
chances of non-ISCI candidates, since most voters identify
ISCI with the failure of religious parties to deliver
services for their constituents. They also believe that ISCI
will not be able to convince the public that it is the
preferred choice of the Najaf religious leadership. Kamil
acknowledged that some Sadrist candidates are masquerading as
independents. Neither man is running for re-election.


3. (C) Both Da'wa and Sadrists fear election fraud
perpetrated by ISCI. Dr. Ne'ama and Murtada believe that
ISCI will attempt to rig the results in the early voting
period for the police, the ARMY and prisoners. They believe
that the party has infiltrated the provincial leadership of
the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and are concerned that
commanders will pressure those under them to vote for ISCI.
Ne'ama and Murtada urged that the PRT underscore to General
Fadhil Radad, the IP commander, the need to avoid any
partisanship by ISF. They also suggested that an
ISCI-leaning electoral office will be able to twist the
confusing proliferation of candidates (more than 1400 for 30
PC seats) to ISCI's advantage. To guard against perceived
election fraud, Da'wa will have 1600 observers at polling
places throughout the province.

Former OMS Director More Skeptical
--------------


4. (C) In contrast to Ne'ama and Murtada, Dr. Salah, the
former OMS Political Director in Hillah, does not foresee a
big shift in political power in the PC. Salah, who was also
in the December 5 meeting, does not see much of an opening in
the short term for change in OMS attitudes toward the
political process. (Note: Dr. Salah recently resigned his
OMS position, citing JAM extremist threats against his life.)
He mentioned two major factors that affect the Sadrists'
relationship to the political process. First, entering the
political process means to some extent dealing with Coalition
Forces (CF) and ISF, which is difficult for hardened Sadrist
leaders to justify to their peers and supporters. He
suggested this problem could be resolved if they held
government positions and could meet as part of their official
Qgovernment positions and could meet as part of their official
duties. Second, it is difficult for Sadrists to cooperate or
form coalitions with other parties because party extremists
view such cooperation disloyalty.


5. (C) Dr. Salah suggested that OMS moderates are gradually
gaining the upper hand, although he painted a picture of
confusion and contradiction within the movement's leadership.
He believes there are Sadrist initiatives to open dialogue
with others. Since being released from prison in April, he
has noticed that changes in OMS personnel indicate that
progress is being made. He pointed to the internal conflict
between OMS Babil leader Sheikh Sadiq al-Issawi, a moderate,
and Sayyid Sa'ad, one of the OMS/JAM extremists in Hillah.
This conflict was resolved by the OMS leadership in Najaf by
transferring Sa'ad to Maysan Province. Dr. Salah predicted
that Muqtada's call for his followers to participate in the
political process would help boost voter turnout among his
followers and bolster Sadrist prospects of winning seats on
the new PC.

Which Sadrists to Support?

BAGHDAD 00003860 002 OF 002


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6. (C) Sadrist voters still do not have a clear signal from
Muqtada al-Sadr about which Sadrist candidates to support.
This predicament was apparent at last Friday's mosque sermon
by Sheikh Sadiq, who is a credible voice for
Muqtada. Sheikh Sadiq reiterated the call to participate,
but, when asked by followers whom to vote for, could only say
he was waiting for directions. In the meeting with the PRT,
Dr, Salah and Murtada indicated that OMS does have
favored candidates in the province, but these have not been
made public.
CROCKER