IRAQ AGRICULTURE: RAIN FUELS EXPECTATION OF NORMAL GRAIN

UNCLAS BAGHDAD 003799 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE PLEASE PASS TO USDA/FAS OGA GRIFFIN, SHEAN STATE ALSO PASS TO USDA/FAS OCRA ALLEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR ECON ETRD IZ SUBJECT: IRAQ AGRICULTURE: RAIN FUELS EXPECTATION OF NORMAL GRAIN PRODUCTION SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. ¶1. (SBU) Substantial general, at times locally very heavy, rain arrived 29 November, providing much needed moisture for rain-fed wheat and barley production in the 2009/10 crop year. Based on accumulated rainfall data from the Ministry of Agriculture, this event provided ample moisture for seeding and germination of dry land wheat and barley production from Ninawa Province in the north through the central provinces of Iraq. MoA is extremely pleased and relieved with the arrival of rain, especially following the severe drought experienced in Iraq for the 2008/2009 crop. MoA reported rainfall totals are listed in paragraph 4. ¶2. (SBU) FAS/Baghdad preliminary analysis indicates this rainfall is sufficient to maintain a forecast of normal wheat and barley production, 2.0 and 1.0 million metric tons respectively, for the 2009/10 marketing year as of this date. Additional rainfall for the rain fed grain areas will still be required to bring this forecast to reality. ¶3. (SBU) Rice production remains a question of how much irrigation water will be allocated for the crop. A decision by the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) has yet to be publicized. However, Iraqi reservoir levels are reported to be below those of the previous crop season, when MoWR restricted the application of irrigation water for rice production. Local analysts expect MoWR to again restrict water availability for rice irrigation based on reported reservoir levels. ¶4. (SBU) According to Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) officials, rainfall accumulations were recorded as follows: PROVINCE LOCALE REPORTED RAINFALL 29-30 Nov (mm) Bagdad Baghdad 42.1 Baghdad Airport 5.8 Ninawa Mosul 32.8 Ninawa Sinjar 0.8 Ninawa Rabiaa 7.9 Ninawa Telaafar 11.0 Salah ad Din Tikrit 11.3 Salah ad Din Samarraa 18.0 Ta'mim Kirkuk 5.3 Ta'Mim Tuzkhurmato 12.4 Ta'Mim Chumchama l4.3 Wasit Al-Hay 14.5 Wasit Al-Azzizia 23.8 Wasit Badra 34.8 Maysan Omara 20.4 Maysan Ali Al-Gharbi 23.2 Dahuk Dahuk 38.0 Dahuk Zakho 36.6 Dahuk Makhmur 18.2 Karbal' Karbala 1.1 Najaf Najaf 0.5 Qadisiyah Diwaniyah 8.3 Al Anbar Ramadi 6.1 Basrah Al-Faw 0.7 Babil Hilla 1.8 SOURCE: MoA Unpublished Data CROCKER