SALAH AD DIN PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS PART II:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003775

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINS IZ
SUBJECT: SALAH AD DIN PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS PART II:
MINORITIES AND BA'ATHISTS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 3211

B. BAGHDAD 1684

C. BAGHDAD 3774

Classified By: PRT SALAH AD DIN TEAM LEADER RICK BELL FOR REASONS 1.4 (
a) and (d).


1. (U) This is a PRT Salah ad Din reporting cable.

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SUMMARY
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2. (C) In addition to National Sunni Arab political
entities, Shi'a and Kurdish parties, representing minority
populations in Salah Ad Din (SaD) province, are preparing for
provincial elections there (ref C). Former and current
Ba'ath party networks in SaD are reportedly split as to whom
to support, or indeed whether to support the electoral
process at all. If key candidates (notably the Deputy
Governor) are disqualified from running on De-Ba'athification
grounds, the consequences for SaD province could be
destabilizing. END SUMMARY.

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MINORITIES
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3. (C) SaD is overwhelmingly Sunni Arab. The Shi'a presence
is concentrated in the two southern-most districts, Balad and
Dujayl (even there, the rural areas are largely Sunni) and in
Tuz district. The Governorate Electoral Officer (GEO)
described the Shi'a turnout during the recent voter
registration drive as "apathetic" (ref B). Tuz is the most
mixed district in the province; its population includes a
substantial number of Turkmen Shi'a, some of whom have voted
according to their ethnic identity, others according to their
religious affiliation.


4. (SBU) Reportedly, some Shi'a Arabs in Tuz are aligning
with Kurds. The Kurds (almost all of them in Tuz) are
expected to make a strong showing as in the past, thanks to
their discipline and unity. However, due to the Sunni Arab
boycott of the 2005 provincial elections, Tuz is currently
over-represented in the Provincial Council (PC); that is
expected to change, as no major boycott by Sunnis is
anticipated for the upcoming elections.

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THE BA'ATHIST FACTOR
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5. (C) The old Ba'ath Party networks are still a part of the
social fabric in SaD, where much of the Party's senior
leadership has its roots. Ba'athists are said to be split
between those, including exiles in Syria, who recognize the
Party made mistakes under Saddam and are willing to make
corrections, and hardline followers of Izzet Ibrahim Al-Douri
(the most senior Ba'ath leader who has never been caught),
who refuse to acknowledge any errors. The PRT understands
that Ba'athists are sending money from Syria to support
electoral campaigns.


6. (C) According to our sources, many residents of Ad-Dawr,
the hometown of Izzet Ad-Douri, hope he will bring the Ba'ath
Party back to power after Coalition Forces leave, and
therefore have not encouraged local participation in the
upcoming elections. Because of this passivity, the current
mayor of Ad-Dawr, who has registered to run for PC on his
own, may do well. Alternatively, Ad-Dawr may find itself
without representation in the PC.


7. (C) Some Ba'ath Party candidates in SaD could be declared
ineligible by the GOI's De-Ba'athification Committee.
Several non-Ba'athist politicians are openly counting on the
disqualification of rivals. Ahmed Abdullah, aka Abu Mazen,
Governor Hamad Humood Shekti's Assistant for Security Affairs
(who, along with the Governor, is running on Ayad Allawi's
list),listed three current PC members who should not be
allowed to run: Deputy Governor Abdullah Hussein Jebara,
Qahtan Hamada Saleh (the Governor's Assistant for Technical
Affairs),and PC member Suleiman Yusuf Ahmed. Another source
claims Abu Mazen met with Ahmed Chalabi recently and offered
him a bribe to prevent Ba'athists*particularly the Deputy
Qhim a bribe to prevent Ba'athists*particularly the Deputy
Governor*from running. (NOTE: The Deputy Governor
reportedly has a letter from Chalabi exempting him from
disqualification. Some have questioned the authenticity of
the letter, but at least one seemingly-reliable source thinks
it genuine. END NOTE).

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COMMENT

BAGHDAD 00003775 002 OF 002


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8. (C) An initial list of potentially disqualified
candidates released by the GOI's De-Ba'athification Committee
has included Deputy Governor Abdullah and the Qahtan Hamada
Saleh, the Governor's Assistant for Technical Affairs. We
believe that if former senior Ba'athists are declared
ineligible, the consequences for SaD could be destabilizing,
as some former Ba'athists in the province have proved to be
effective administrators. END COMMENT.
CROCKER