QASSIM DAOUD ON POSSIBLE ALLIANCE TO END ALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000363 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2023 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: QASSIM DAOUD ON POSSIBLE ALLIANCE TO END ALL ALLIANCES (AND MALIKI'S POLITICAL CAREER) Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Shia Independent CoR member Qassim Daoud told us February 5 that he has had several meetings in recent days with senior ISCI leaders about the formation of a "National Front" CoR grouping that would alter Iraq's current political landscape and end the government of Prime Minister al-Maliki. Describing the new alliance as a "beautiful basket of parties" that bridges ethno-sectarian divides, Qassim said it would contain ISCI, the two main Kurdish parties, the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP),Iraqiyyah, Qassim's "Solidarity Bloc" of ten Shia independents, and possibly Saleh al-Mutlaq's National Dialogue Front. ISCI, Iraqqiyah, and IIP sources either confirmed ongoing talks regarding formation of a new grouping or were sufficiently cagey to suggest that such talks are indeed underway. In the same breath, however, Qassim said his "Solidarity Bloc" had rejected ISCI overtures of a provincial electoral partnership because the Iraqi public is turning away from Islamist politics. Concerned about Sadrist control of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC),Qassim is preparing a lawsuit against IHEC that will ask a court to order dissolution of the current IHEC leadership team. End Summary. Beautiful Basket Means Farewell to Nuri? -------------- ¶2. (C) Qassim confided that he has had four meetings in the past week with ISCI's Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, Adel Abdel Mehdi, and other senior officials about formation of a "National Front" that would include ISCI, Qassim's Solidarity Bloc, the two major Kurdish parties, Iraqiyyah, IIP, and possibly Saleh al-Mutlaq's National Dialogue Front. Fielding a line-up of approximately 157 CoR members, the "National Front" (a "beautiful basket of parties," Qassim gushed) would be able to establish a quorum and simple majority on any issue before the CoR. Qassim emphasized that the Dawa Party would not be welcome to join the "National Front," and he predicted with clearly evident glee that an early item of "Front" business would be removal of Maliki through a no-confidence vote, with current Vice President Adel Abdel Mehdi as replacement Prime Minister. ¶3. (C) Senior Hakim aide Haitham al-Husseini confirmed that Hakim has been shopping ideas about a new political order in recent meetings with Ayad Allawi, Tareq al-Hashimi and other heavyweights, but Haitham was guardedly cagey when asked about specifics of a new alliance. Iraqiyyah contacts also acknowledged preliminary rumblings regarding a new alliance. IIP contacts have been across-the-board reluctant to engage in any in-depth discussion over the purported alliance. Nevertheless, reading between the lines and listening to reports from more talkative contacts, there is clearly a great deal of positioning going on behind the scenes amongst the groups. One contact posited that ISCI, the Kurds, and IIP essentially agreed to work together to ensure the legal formation of three distinct regions - Shia, Kurdish, and Sunni - with Hashimi leading the latter. The MOU signed between the IIP and the two main Kurdish parties last December was ample evidence to critics that the two groups had yet again sold out Iraqi national interests in lieu of their own private agendas. Hashimi continues in his recent public statements to downplay that agreement and conduct damage control among his Sunni compatriots. Hashimi,s recent public engagements with Shia leaders, Grand Ayatollah Sistani last Autumn and the Hakims more recently, also feed rampant rumors of behind the scenes positioning. ¶4. (C) Declaring that "we'll leave Maliki and Jaffri behind, along with Adnan Dulaymi, Khalaf al-Alayan, the Sadrists and the other troublemakers," Qassim predicted a likely Dawa counterpunch that would jettison Maliki and replace him with former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaffri, who would rely on the Sadrist Trend as his chief base of political and popular support and thus be obliged to make concessions to the Sadrists. As is his wont, Qassim was withering in his criticism of the Maliki government, characterizing the Prime Minister as "an idiot" and his cabinet ministers as "wild animals," and repeatedly implored the USG to abandon support for Maliki. Maliki's hostile relations with his neighbor Qassim make the famously tense Maliki-Hashimi relationship look like a lovefest by comparison, and it has degenerated to the point that Maliki blocked road access to Qassim's house by installing a t-wall that forces Qassim to transit a parking lot controlled by the PM's security detail in order to reach his own home. We noticed that the obstructing t-wall has been painted with a garish mural since our last visit, a sure sign that it is there to stay. Provincial Elections, Sadrists Mock IHEC Lawsuit -------------- --- BAGHDAD 00000363 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) While Qassim maintained that he and his independent bloc would be pleased to join the "National Front" under ISCI's leadership, he said he flatly rejected ISCI overtures to enter into a provincial election partnership because he thinks the Iraqi electorate is disgusted with all Islamist political parties, particularly Shia religious parties like ISCI and Dawa, and is eager for a non-sectarian alternative. He continued that Grand Ayatollah Sistani is similarly disenchanted with Shia religious parties, and has already sent word to ISCI's Hakim and others that they may not use his name or photo in election campaigns, as they did in 2005 polling. Qassim claimed that the religious parties - including the Sadrists - are well aware of their diminished popularity in south-central Iraq and will turn their militias loose during the campaign and polling in order to preserve their dominance through threats, intimidation, and violence. Qassim confided that he may have trouble recruiting independent candidates to contest elections for fear of assassination by thugs affiliated with rival contestants. Concerned about Sadrist control of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC),Qassim is preparing a lawsuit against IHEC that will ask a court to order dissolution of the current IHEC leadership team. When he warned several Sadrist CoR members about the impending lawsuit, he related, they burst out laughing in reply. BUTENIS