KIRKUK ARABS LINE UP BEHIND AHMED OBEIDI IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003567

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: KIRKUK ARABS LINE UP BEHIND AHMED OBEIDI IN
PREPARATION FOR ARTICLE 23 PROCESS

BAGHDAD 00003567 001.3 OF 002


Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Fox; reasons 1.4(b) and
(d)

THIS IS A PRT KIRKUK REPORTING CABLE.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Arab leaders in Kirkuk chose Ahmed Obeidi
to represent their interests to the committee established
under Article 23 of the Provincial Elections Law to make
recommendations on the future of Kirkuk. Obeidi has formed
secretive "cells" to collect information on issues such as
joint administration, land reform, and demographics and to
make recommendations to the Article 23 Committee. Arab
leaders believe that the (Kurdish Democratic Party) KDP plans
to sabotage the Article 23 process, and is the biggest
obstacle to its success. Despite this, they believe that
they hold the upper hand against the Kurds in the Council of
Representatives (CoR). Kirkuk,s Arabs appear to be further
along organizationally than the Kurds and Turkmen, Kirkuk's
two other main ethnic groups. In an ominous admission,
Obeidi said he is pressuring Arabs who are cooperating with
the Kurds. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Arab Kirkuki politicians were quick to focus on the
November 1 deadline for establishment of a multi-ethnic
committee under Article 23 of the Provincial Elections Law.
The passage of the Provincial Elections Law received great
support from the (mainly Sunni) Arabs in Kirkuk Province.
Many Arab leaders compare Article 23 to the failed &Thirteen
Point Agreement8 signed in December 2007 that ended the Arab
boycott of the PC but was never fully implemented. In
general, Arab leaders express optimism over the prospects of
finding a solution for Kirkuk palatable to all ethnicities
within the framework of Article 23.

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Ahmed Obeidi takes the lead on Article 23 preparation
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3. (SBU) Arab preparation for the Article 23 Committee in
Kirkuk is being organized under Ahmed Obeidi, a leader in the
Arab Unity Party and the Iraqi Republican Gathering. Ahmed
Obeidi was a Ba'athist and former military (perhaps
intelligence) officer during the Saddam era. He told us he
has recently finished his masters in law and is pursuing a
PhD. He holds no public office, but is considered, along
with Sheik Hussein Ali Salih (aka Abu Saddam),to be one of
the most influential Arab leaders in the province. Whereas
Abu Saddam garners the majority of his support through tribal
networks in the Hawija District, Ahmed Obeidi, who is
considered a technocrat, derives his support from the
educated Arabs in Kirkuk City. PRT engagements with Arab
provincial council (PC) members, along with the Deputy
Governor Rakan Saeed, confirm that Ahmed Obeidi has the lead
on Arab collaboration with the Article 23 Committee.


4. (SBU) In a 29 October meeting with the PRT, Ahmed Obeidi
discussed preparations for the Article 23 Committee and
confirmed that he is the leader of Arab participation. When
asked if Abu Saddam would play a role, Obeidi replied that
the majority of violations against the Arabs are occurring in
or near Kirkuk City. It is natural, he argued, that he
rather than Abu Saddam, who works out of Hawija, take the
lead. He said that he confers regularly with Abu Saddam, and
that Arab preparation is a group effort. Obeidi also stated
that he is in contact many times each day with the Arab
members of the Article 23 Committee ) Omar Jabouri and
Mohammed Tameemi.

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Arabs plan to work closely with the Article 23 Committee
--------------


5. (SBU) According to Ahmed Obeidi, he has a team of
approximately 30 hand-picked people working at the
grass-roots level in preparation for the Article 23
Committee. These individuals are all well-educated
professionals with backgrounds in law, politics, and
security. Obeidi claims all are unpaid and are working only
to help the other Arabs in the province. They are broken up
into &cells8 that focus on particular issues or geographic
areas. He gave an example of a cell focusing on DG-level
leadership positions in the province to document the absence
of an ethnically diverse administration, as pledged in the
December 2007 agreement. Obeidi said that all cells report
directly to him. Each cell is distinct and the identity of
cell members is kept secret ) one cell does not know who the
members are in another cell. The cells began their work in
mid-October and will continue until the Article 23 Committee
completes its work on 31 March.


BAGHDAD 00003567 002 OF 002



6. (SBU) Ahmed Obeidi outlined the following three steps of
action for his preparation group: first, to concentrate on
collecting information and evidence related to the areas of
study mentioned in Article 23 of the Provincial Elections
Law, which they are currently doing; second, to submit the
evidence to the Article 23 Committee and await any response;
and third, to make recommendations to the Article 23
Committee on ways to resolve Kirkuk,s outstanding issues.
Obeidi stated that his overarching goal is to find solutions
to these problems so the people of Kirkuk can live peacefully
without one ethnicity dominating any other. He also
emphasized that any solutions for Kirkuk must be &moderate8
and take into account the interests of all ethnicities.


7. (SBU) Obeidi stated that the two &technical advisors8
for the Arabs on the Article 23 Committee have been chosen,
though for security reasons their names are not being
released at this time. According to Obeidi one of the
advisors is &from a legal background8, and the other is
ex-military with police experience. Neither of the advisors
is from Kirkuk,s PC.

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No confidence in the KDP, though possible collaboration with
Turkomen
--------------


8. (SBU) Obeidi stated that the biggest obstacle that the
Article 23 Committee faces in Kirkuk is the KDP. (Kirkuk's
Arab leaders generally see the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
as more amenable to compromise.) He alleged that the KDP
plans to obstruct the work of the Article 23 Committee and
block the implementation of joint administration. (Obeidi
claimed that he had proof of this, but refused to elaborate.)
Kirkuk Deputy Governor Rakan Saeed, along with PC members
Mohammed Khalil and Ramla Obeidi, also made similar
statements regarding expected KDP obstructionism.


9. (C) Obeidi also referred to other Arabs in Kirkuk who were
creating obstacles and possibly working with the Kurds. He
said that this &family8 has been identified and is &being
pushed into a corner8 to eliminate its influence. (COMMENT:
We believe Obeidi was referring to the al-Assi family in
general and Sheik Abdullah Sami al-Assi and Sheik Burhan
al-Assi in particular. From someone of Obeidi's background,
this is ominous-sounding, but PRT believes that in the
current context Obeidi was referring to actions taken to
isolate the al-Assi family politically. END COMMENT)


10. (SBU) PRT asked if the Arabs are collaborating with the
Turkomen while preparing for the Article 23 Committee.
Obeidi replied that the Arabs are interested in working with
the Turkomen, but have not been able to coordinate with them.
Obeidi stated that there have been attempts to contact
Turkomen leaders, but since the ITF coalition broke up there
is no clear Turkomen leader in the province. He implied that
the Arabs will continue trying to find common ground with the
Turkomen, but did say that the two groups have differences of
opinion.


11. (SBU) COMMENT: It appears the Kirkuk Arabs are further
along in their preparations for the Article 23 Committee than
the Kurds or Turkmen. They argue that the Article 23 process
is consistent with the &Thirteen Points Agreement,8 and
declare that if only the Kurds had followed through with
their end of the bargain, the problems of today would not
exist. We are less certain. Arab leaders are concerned the
KDP will seek to sabotage the Article 23 Committee, but
believe that Kurdish influence in the CoR is waning and that
Arab aims can be attained there if the Article 23 committee
process fails. Ahmed Obeidi stressed several times that the
Arabs want to present &moderate,8 well-considered
recommendations to the committee. If true, this more
moderate stance would be a change from just two months back.
PRT Kirkuk will monitor any Arab and Turkomen collaboration
over the coming weeks as the Article 23 Committee begins its
work. END COMMENT.


CROCKER