KARBALA: NOT MUCH SOFA TALK

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003558

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IZ
SUBJECT: KARBALA: NOT MUCH SOFA TALK

Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SOFA is not a hot topic in Karbala. Among the
Provincial Reconstruction Team,s (PRT,s) contacts who have
a view on the matter, opinions range from hardline
nationalism ("Send all the Americans home now") to
profit-oriented pragmatism ("Let Washington pay to stay
however long it wants") to apprehension ("Iran will move into
the vacuum created by the withdrawal of U.S. forces").
Interestingly, few Karbalans say the Iraq-for-Iraqis tinge of
the Friday sermons of Abd al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i -- Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's deputy here -- affect their
thinking. On November 7, Karbala'i emphasized in his sermon
that Iraqi territory must not be used as a staging ground for
U.S. military operations on neighboring countries.


2. (C) SOFA was only raised once Senior Advisor Gordon
Gray,s meetings during his November 2-3 visit. Independent
Provincial Council member (PC) Kadhum Jawad Nour al-Safi, in
an impromptu pull-aside following the departure from FOB
Husayniyah of his PC colleagues, told Gray that the SOFA is
not well understood by 95 percent of Karbalans. He urged the
Embassy to publish its text and to make a greater effort to
explain it to Iraqis. Gray replied that a text of the SOFA
has been published in the Arabic-language press and that the
Embassy has made personnel available to discuss the draft
agreement with Council of Representatives members. (Note:
Kadhum's brother, Ahmed Jawad, is a senior Sistani
representative in Karbala, head of the Abbas Shrine. End
note.)

--------------
A Poll Apart
--------------


3. (SBU) Meanwhile, a rather unusual local poll demonstrates
that -- whatever their views on the SOFA -- many here regard
Iraqi passports as a liability. Asked by the al-Rafidayn
(Mesopotamia) Media Agency whether they supported adding an
article to the SOFA requiring Washington to give all Iraqis
U.S. passports, 80 percent of the nearly 1,500 Karbala
respondents ticked the box next to "Yes, I endorse adding
this article because it will provide Iraqis with freedom of
travel throughout the world without waiting a long time for a
visa and it also will enable Iraqis to live and work in the
United States whenever they wish." The remaining 20 percent
agreed with "No, I reject this idea because it would turn
Iraq into American territory, impinge on Iraq's heritage and
economy, and link Iraq completely with U.S. policies."
Al-Rafidayn claims to have worked previously with the Zogby
polling organization.

--------------
Comment
--------------


4. (C) Public apathy regarding the SOFA is not surprising
given that the sole coalition force presence in Karbala is
Forward Operating Base Husayniyah, home to the generally
well-regarded PRT and military training teams. There appears
to be little consensus other than it is time for Iraq to try
to stand on its own. That many here apparently would like to
have the option to leave, and perhaps to live and work
elsewhere, suggests a tacit acknowledgement that the
country's transition from crawling to walking could be
fraught with peril. End comment.
CROCKER