IRAQIS WELCOME OBAMA VICTORY, BUT EXPRESS CONCERN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003508 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: IRAQIS WELCOME OBAMA VICTORY, BUT EXPRESS CONCERN OVER U.S. COMMITMENT TO IRAQ Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Summary: In discussions following the November 4 election of Barack Obama, Iraqi contacts have reacted positively but cautiously. While some expressed surprise at Obama's victory, all contacts were congratulatory and positive, recognizing the historic significance of the election of the first African-American president. Contacts consistently noted concern and uncertainty regarding continuing U.S. support for Iraq under an Obama administration, including a possible loss of U.S. focus on Iraq. They would welcome affirmations of America's continuing commitment to Iraq as we confront challenging bilateral issues during the transition period. End Summary. Iraqi Leaders Congratulate and Ponder Obama Win -------------- -- ¶2. (C) In conversations with Embassy Officers November 5, Iraqi reaction was overwhelmingly positive and congratulatory. Foreign Minister Zebari described the election as an "extraordinary, historic event." Prime Minister Maliki's Chief of Staff, Tariq Abdullah, told the DCM that the election had ended positively and that the election of an African-American for the first time had sent a "strong message." Dhia Mahdi, Chief of Staff to Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Rafi Issawi, offered congratulations to Poloff, and praised Senator Obama. UIA independent Abbas al-Bayati, a prominent advocate for Iraqi Turkomen, confessed that while he had publicly supported the candidate of the party that overthrew Saddam, privately he was thrilled that Americans elected such an inspiring figure. He added that his young son had leapt around the room with glee when the news came in. America Still Firm ? -------------- ¶3. (C) Maliki advisor Sadiq Rikabi was effusive in a conversation with S/I Satterfield, stating: "I take my hat off to the United States. To elect an African-American as President is an historic and amazing demonstration of your democracy. The American people should be very proud." Rikabi hedged his comments, however, expressing concern over the possibility that the Vice President-elect would be put in charge of Iraq, given what is regarded here as Biden's alleged support for Iraq's partition. (Comment: Prime Minister Maliki is not a big supporter of a confederation-like Iraqi state. End Comment.) ¶4. (C) Redha Taki, a member of the leadership council of the Shia Islamist ISCI party, asked PMIN what changes Obama would bring to American policy on Iraq. He acknowledged some concern within the ISCI leadership about whether the American commitment to Iraqi security would remain steadfast. Taki noted that ISCI Chairman al-Hakim and other senior ISCI figures had heard directly from President Bush about his commitment, but Obama is more of an unknown. ISCI called a special meeting November 5 morning to examine the implications of Obama's victory and the party's reaction to it. The meeting's conclusion, Taki stated, was that Iraq need not fear any huge shift in American policy on Iraq. PMIN noted that ISCI needed above all to help finalize passage of the SoFA to ensure smooth transition on bilateral security relations, and Taki readily agreed. ¶5. (C) Anbar province's Shaykh Ali Fares and Baghdad's Shaykh Mutallib al-Masari, both Sunni Arabs, highlighted to us their concern that the Obama victory would lead to a rapid withdrawal of American forces in 2009. Fares stressed that Iraqi security forces were not ready to defend Iraq's borders against Iran and they would have trouble maintaining internal security as well. PMIN urged them to weigh in with their contacts in the political parties and parliament to press the need to conclude the SoFA expeditiously. Both said they already are doing so, and Mutallib highlighted his efforts with Sunni Arab hardliner Saleh Mutlaq. ¶6. (C) Council of Representatives member Mithal Alusi told Poloff that he was confident President Obama would be a strong leader and continue to support Iraq. Fadhila bloc leader Hasan al-Shimmari stated that Obama's victory was historic and reflected the will of the American people. He cautioned, however, that Iraq would have to wait to see what Obama's Iraq policy would be. ¶7. (C) Hamid Majid Mousa, head of the Iraqi Communist Party, praised Obama's victory but expressed concern to us that BAGHDAD 00003508 002 OF 002 Obama might not remain as focused on Iraq as President Bush, particularly in light of the financial crisis in the U.S. Mehdi Hafedh and Maysoon Damluji of the secular Iraqiyya party also praised Obama's victory but reiterated Mousa's concern that the next administration might be more consumed with the economy and other issues than Iraq. Hammadi added that he was concerned that Obama could push for an early withdrawal of troops, commenting that the new Administration might make Afghanistan a higher priority than Iraq. Sadrists Urge U.S. Troop Out Within 16 Months -------------- ¶8. (U) The Sadrist bloc in the Iraqi parliament issued a statement November 5 calling Obama's victory a landslide and noted Obama's call during the campaign to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq within 16 months. Spokesman Ahmed al-Masoudi called on Obama to implement this policy, noting that withdrawal of U.S. troops will benefit both countries and, stated that there is no legal cover for American troops to remain in Iraq. ¶9. (C) Comment: Although our Iraqi contacts have generally been positive toward Obama's victory, their comments also reveal an underlying anxiety that the new Administration may bring a significant change in U.S. Iraq policy. Notably, they are concerned that the economic crisis and the war in Afghanistan may take priority over Iraq. Iraqi officials such as these would welcome affirmations of sustained American commitment to Iraqi security, stability and democracy as we go forward in a challenging transition period here. End Comment. CROCKER