SAHWA LEADER TO AMB CROCKER: WE MUST HAVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003341 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: SAHWA LEADER TO AMB CROCKER: WE MUST HAVE INVESTMENT TO SUCCEED REF: A. BAGHDAD 3255 ¶B. BAGHDAD 3008 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha, the leader of Anbar's Iraqi Awakening Conference (Sahwa) party, and prominent Anbari politician Sa'adoun Duleimi, told Ambassador that Anbar province needs investment from U.S. companies. Sheikh Ahmed bemoaned the current weak state of the economy in Anbar, particularly the agricultural sector. He also touched on the Awakening's preparations for upcoming provincial elections, expressing confidence in his prospects. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Sheikh Ahmed and Sa'adoun Duleimi, a statistician and former Minister of Defense, met Ambassador Crocker at the Embassy on October 9. The discussion focused largely on the current economic situation and economic potential of Anbar province. Sheikh Ahmed asserted that factories in Anbar operate at one quarter of capacity, and there is little electricity. Duleimi worried that agriculture, a key segment of Anbar's economy, "is almost dead." Sheikh Ahmed said that Anbaris are giving up farming due to increased fuel prices. He warned that USD 16 million in loans for farmers in Anbar might be wasted without fuel subsidies for the farmers. When questioned about the unemployment rate in Anbar, Duleimi replied that it is "very high," and that only military and security people are working. NEED FOR U.S. INVESTMENT IN ANBAR -------------- ¶3. (C) Duleimi stated that Anbar needs investment to help the unemployed. Sheikh Ahmed took up this theme, saying that he had "a message for the American people: There is a need for U.S. companies to come to Anbar and to partner with Iraqi companies--nothing will make us succeed except investment." He wished that U.S. companies, rather than Russian or other countries' companies, would benefit from the sacrifices made by U.S. armed forces in Iraq. He referred to Iraq's oil and gas resources as investment opportunities, and exclaimed that a USD 200 million investment "could cover whole governorates." ¶4. (C) In response to Ambassador Crocker's inquiry about Gulf or Middle Eastern companies' investment in Anbar, Sheikh Ahmed said that only one Gulf company is working in Anbar. The Ambassador promised to ask the Crown Prince to explore investment opportunities in Anbar. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador also stated that partnership is important, and that while it would be very difficult for U.S. companies to invest in Iraq alone, partnering with Iraqi companies or companies from other countries in the region would be better. The Ambassador added U.S. companies at this stage are more concerned about the lack of an effective legal structure to protect U.S. investors and their investments in Iraq than about security concerns. UPCOMING ELECTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) Recalling the Ambassador's recent visit to Anbar and walk through Ramadi's downtown market (ref A) there with the Deputy Secretary, Duleimi observed that Arab media covered the visit closely. He thought that the Ambassador,s presence was an "excellent" message that meant a great deal to the people of Anbar. He hoped that GOI leaders would make similar visits to Anbar and tour Ramadi. Sheikh Ahmed said he told the Minister of Defense to tell the Prime Minister of the Ambassador's and the Deputy Secretary's visit to Anbar and their walks through the streets. Sheikh Ahmed invited the Prime Minister and anyone else from the GOI to come for a similar tour. ¶7. (C) Referring to a vigorous public display of support for Sheikh Ahmed and the Sahwa he saw during the market walk, Ambassador Crocker noted that he had seen Sheikh Ahmed's "election campaign" while in Ramadi. Sheikh Ahmed laughed and responded that "you told me it seemed the election results have already been settled." ¶8. (C) Turning to the upcoming provincial elections, the Ambassador asked Sheikh Ahmed about the possibilities for cooperation with other parties in Anbar and elsewhere. Sheikh Ahmed did not answer directly, saying only that people are getting ready to participate and they had never done so before. He also noted that there were tribal, non-religious parties that are registered for elections. He claimed that a similar situation exists in all the governorates. BAGHDAD 00003341 002 OF 002 THE ECONOMY AS ELECTION ISSUE -------------- ¶9. (C) Sheikh Ahmed maintains that with strong people in power the terrorists will not stay; by contrast, religious parties are weak when confronting terrorists. He believed that "we need economists, not religious people, as candidates. In the U.S., the candidates talk about the economy, he commented and he wished candidates would do the same in Iraq. Ambassador noted that a discussion of such issues would be useful in Iraq now. ¶10. (C) Duleimi noted that surveys six months ago revealed that people named security as their number one priority, but a recent survey revealed that security was second to services and the economy. He observed that "if we do not pay attention to the economy it will reflect negatively on security." SECTARIANISM IN IRAQ -------------- ¶11. (C) Commenting on an Iraqi think-tank's publication on Iraqi public opinion that he presented to the Ambassador, Duleimi said the results indicate Iraqis still think about the needs of the country as a whole, rather than focusing on particular ethnic or sectarian perspectives. Ambassador Crocker agreed, saying that "Iraq was never overtly sectarian for very long." Duleimi commented that apart from some very specific periods (2006-2007, '80s-'90s under Saddam, and in the late 19th century) sectarian or ethnic divisions were more personal ways of life rather than specific government policies. ¶12. (C) Sheikh Ahmed agreed, noting that Shi'a and Sunni had fought together as Arabs against Iran because they were Persians. He added that more Shi'a than Sunni fought in that war. Ambassador Crocker recalled how little understood the Iran-Iraq war is in the United States and expressed the hope that he could invite a prominent Shi'a Iraqi General to speak at U.S. military institutes about his experience in that war. With a subtle smile on his face, Sheikh Ahmed murmured that perhaps the Americans need to understand how to fight the Iranians. CROCKER