KARBALA: EXPLOSION RAISES CONCERNS DURING TIMES OF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003324 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: KARBALA: EXPLOSION RAISES CONCERNS DURING TIMES OF POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY Classified By: PRT Karbala Team Leader Don Cooke for reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d). ¶1. (S) Summary: An explosive device killed an employee of the Karbala Provincial Council (PC) on October 9, 2008, raising concerns about the safety of provincial officials. Emerging evidence suggests that the deadly explosion might have been intended to threaten council members in advance of a planned PC vote to remove Governor Aqeel, a Da'wa member. As a result of the incident, provincial officials and employees are on heightened alert with security measures increased. The explosion occurred amid intense political infighting between Da'wa and ISCI, which has been further elevated by the Governor's recent decision to remove Police Chief Ra'ad Shaker. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) On October 9, Provincial Council employee Jasim Mohammed was killed when an explosive device attached to the underside of his Provincial Government owned vehicle exploded, killing Jasim and wounding two passengers. Council members expressed surprise that Jasim would have been targeted for assassination as he was an administrative employee, not an elected council member and had no recognized ties to any particular political party or council bloc. Initial speculation was that Jasim was a victim of a long-standing tribal feud. That version of the events became less likely as details of the event emerged. Car Bomb to Explode in PC Parking Lot? -------------- ¶3. (S) Jasim followed a usual morning routine: he would drive his PC-owned vehicle the 30-minute trip from his home to a parking space within the PC compound where Council members also parked. The timing of Jasim,s trip was fairly predictable. Because of his use of an official government vehicle, he was permitted to drive around the various security checkpoints and his vehicle was not subject to search before entering the PC compound. Jasim began his day on October 9 with his usual routine but en route to the Council offices he took a detour to assist two of his relatives to whom he offered a ride. As a result of this detour, Jasim did not arrive at the Council Building at his usual time. Approximately 15 minutes after the time when Jasim would typically have parked his car in the PC lot, an explosive device detonated under Jasim,s side of the vehicle as he passed through the al-Hur area of Karbala Province. The explosion killed Jasim instantly and injured his two passengers, one of whom has since died. The explosive device is reported to have been attached with magnets to the underside of the vehicle and detonated with either a timer or by remote device. ¶4. (S) The day of the explosion had been the date scheduled by the Provincial Council for a vote on a proposal to remove Governor Aqeel (Da'wa) from office for certain, unspecified transgressions which, based upon press reports of statements supposedly made by the Acting Council Chairman, supposedly related to the Governor acting independently of the Council. Had events of October 9 gone as originally scheduled, Jasim,s vehicle would have been parked on the Council lot as PC members were arriving to cast their votes on the proposal to remove the Governor. However, Council members were notified the evening prior that the meeting was rescheduled due to the Chairman,s absence from Iraq; the Chairman was on a trip to Iran and India. Many observers, noting the relatively sophisticated techniques employed, are blaming the bombing on Iran or Iranian agents within the province. ISCI and Da'wa -------------- ¶5. (S) The actual motivation for the Council,s effort to remove the Da'wa Governor appears to be two recent politically controversial developments that non-Da'wa council members see as blatant efforts by Da'wa to control Karbala in advance of the upcoming provincial elections. The first is Governor Aqeel,s strong support for the Prime Minister Maliki-inspired Tribal Support Councils which now include a dozen councils throughout Karbala and are seen by ISCI and other religiously-based parties as a political organizing tool for Da'wa. The second is the Prime Minister's early October removal of Major General Ra,ad Shaker, who was both the commander of the Karbala Operations Center and also the Iraqi Police commander. This later event is seen by many PC contacts as an effort by Da'wa to place the security forces firmly under the party's control in advance of the elections. While MG Ra,ad is generally considered to be Da'wa, his allegiance is said to be with the Hindiyah wing of the party as opposed to the Karbala wing which is favored by Prime Minister and the Governor. MG Ra,ad,s removal was hotly disputed by ISCI-allied council members, including the Acting BAGHDAD 00003324 002 OF 002 Chairman, Abdul Al al-Yassiri. The PRT has received reports that Yassiri, a self-proclaimed &independent,8 has become allied with ISCI over the past several months. Religious Authorities vs. Ra'ad -------------- ¶6. (S) Ra,ad became politically vulnerable when his Emergency Response Unit, under Major Ali, tried to enter the Old City to investigate reports of arms caches in the shrine area. Major Ali was refused access by the Shrine Police and word of the attempt by regular Iraqi Police to enter the Shrine area infuriated the religious authorities. The Old City is patrolled by the Fourth Brigade of the Iraqi Police. While they theoretically come under the direct control the Ministry of Interior, the reality is that they are recruited and controlled by Ayatollah Sistani and religious authorities in the Shrine. ¶7. (S) Comment: The Prime Minister has pressed hard to expand Da'wa influence in Karbala Province in advance of the provincial elections. Governor Aqeel has been a loyal Da'wa soldier and has pressed key Maliki initiatives that have raised the ire of an overwhelming majority of the provincial council, whose numbers include only five Da'wa members. Unfortunately for Governor Aqeel, his loyalty to party could cost him his job. The greater risk for all, however, is the potential for physical violence as desperate political parties with ready access to weaponry cross political swords in an attempt to maintain lucrative government positions. Normally lethargic provincial officials have displayed newfound energy in the approaching provincial elections. The stakes are perhaps elevated by clear public dissatisfaction with all of the political incumbents. The PRT is working to urge peaceful resolution of political disputes while vigilantly avoiding the appearance of taking sides. End comment. CROCKER