IRAQI PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS TIMELINE UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003232 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: IRAQI PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS TIMELINE UPDATE REF: BAGHDAD 3160 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Steve Walker for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Shortly after parliament passed the provincial election law, UNAMI Chief Electoral Advisor Sandra Mitchell began working closely with the Independent High Electoral Council (IHEC) and the International Electoral Assistance Team (IEAT) to develop a timeline to hold provincial elections by January 31, 2009. In the next four months, coalition registration will end, parties must nominate candidates, the voter registry must be finalized, ballots designed, a mechanism for "special needs" voting (detainees, police, hospital patients) determined and a security plan finalized. At an October 1 briefing, Mitchell cautioned that this is a tentative timeline and could be modified by IHEC at any time. Candidate nomination and ballot design are affected by the minority representation issue (reftel). End Summary. ¶2. (C) On October 1, UNAMI Chief Electoral Advisor Sandra Mitchell briefed PolOffs on her meetings with the Independent High Electoral Council (IHEC) and the International Election Assistance Team (IEAT) to develop an election timeline to meet the January 31, 2009 deadline for provincial elections. Mitchell cautioned that the timeline is tentative owing to the unresolved issue of minority representation (see para 6). However, she did say IHEC is comfortable with the January 31 deadline. The following is a month-by-month breakdown of upcoming election events: OCTOBER -------------- ¶3. (C) Coalition registration was re-opened after the election law passed on September 24. It will close on October 10, and Mitchell informed PolOffs that several coalitions have registered (Note: Coalition registration officially ran from May 28 through June 17. End Note.) Candidate nomination will begin October 15 and run through October 28. Registered political entities will need to submit the names of candidates to be placed on the party lists. The parties will submit the names to each Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) in the provinces in which the parties will run. Mitchell said that UNAMI plans to be present at each GEO during this critical process in order to ensure it goes smoothly. Candidate names will be submitted to the De-Ba'athification Committee for vetting. The Committee will have ten days from date of receipt to disallow any candidate. By the end of October the National Joint Security Plan must be finalized. MNF-I is working closely with the Supreme Council for Election Security on this project which will, inter alia, establish the locations of polling centers. Also during this time, IHEC will need to determine the number of seats for each provincial council. The election law established the number of seats on each council as 25 for the first 500,000 citizens in each province, with one seat added for each 200,000 additional citizens. IHEC must use the population numbers provided by the most recent Public Distribution System (PDS) database. NOVEMBER -------------- ¶4. (C) On or about November 5, IHEC will conduct a televised ballot lottery to determine the position of each party list on the ballot in each province. It is unclear whether they will also use the lottery to determine the position of the names within the list. There is the possibility a province the size of Baghdad could have 30,000 candidates distributed among 512 parties. The Exhibition and Challenge Period for the provisional voters list will take place November 5-12, which will include the addition of approximately 700,000 new voters representing Iraqi youth who will turn 18 in 2009. Voters who updated their information during the voter registration update period may check to see that their information was updated correctly. Also, challenges may be made to names on the voter registry, such as reporting a neighbor has died or moved. These challenges will be investigated, and a final voter registry will be printed later in the year. On November 24, accreditation of observers, agents and the media will begin and will run through January 22. IHEC has extended invitations to international observers such as the Arab League, the EU and the Carter Center, but has not had any responses. IHEC will not provide security for observers, which may serve as a disincentive for them to come. Finally, on November 30, 60 days before January 31, 2009, the Council of Ministers will announce the date of the election. This allows for the campaign period to begin. DECEMBER BAGHDAD 00003232 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶5. (C) The campaign period will run from December 1 through January 29. IHEC will begin training polling center staff on December 3. The training will continue until January 26, and UNAMI is expecting approximately 300,000 workers to be trained and plans on utilizing teachers, principals and members of the Iraqi bar association (schools will serve as polling stations). IHEC has prepared an MOU for these groups, but nothing has been signed yet. On December 8, IHEC will begin its Get Out the Vote (GOTV) media campaign which will continue after the election, through February 23, to explain the vote tally and challenge period before certifying the results of the election. Mitchell identified voter outreach as a critical part of the elections preparation process and said it would be a key focus on UNAMI's engagement with IHEC. (Note: DRL-funded programs implemented by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI),working in coordination with UNAMI, will supplement GOI public outreach programs by targeting specific communities, including women, youth, internally displaced persons as well as ethnic and religious minorities. These programs will include television, radio, and print media products as well as campaigns delivered by indigenous Iraqi NGOs. End Note.) ¶6. (C) Ballot printing needs to begin no later than December 16. Because of the open list system, the ballots will be very large (perhaps the size of a phonebook in a small town),and UNAMI believes it will take approximately five weeks to print them. The printing needs to be completed by January 14 to provide distribution time out to the polling centers. As with the voter registration list, ballots will also be printed out of country. IHEC must determine the ballot format before tenders can be released, and this could be a challenge. One option, which would be the easiest to print and tally, is the "two tick" system where a voter will make one mark for the party, then choose one candidate from that party's list. This could confuse the voter who thinks he or she is voting twice, and may cross party lines on the ballot. In addition, minority representation affects ballot design. If the CoR establishes minority set-aside seats on provincial councils, a special list of minority candidates will need to be included on the ballot. If the CoR delays in making this decision until after candidate registration concludes, it will be difficult to add minority lists to the ballot. IHEC is addressing this issue by requesting religious/minority affiliation on the candidate registration form, which will enable it to cull the minority registrants to develop a minority list in each province, if needed. December 27-January 21, IHEC will finalize special voting procedures. Detainees, VIPs in the International Zone, police who will be guarding polling centers and hospital patients will all need a way to vote without traveling to a polling center. JANUARY-FEBRUARY -------------- ¶7. (C) IHEC's Tally Center will open on January 5. This will be the nerve center of IHEC in the run-up to the election. After the election, IHEC will allocate seats and determine who will fill the women's (and possibly minority) quota seats. It may also act as overflow office space as repairs to the fire-damaged sections of the IHEC office will not be completed before election day. January 15-19 the printer will ship the ballots to the four GEO warehouses. By January 26, IHEC and the SCES, in consultation with MNF-I, will complete the security plan and fortify the polling centers. Election day will be January 31. Votes will be counted at local polling centers rather than at GEOs or IHEC headquarters. This will reduce the likelihood of fraud, as there has always been the risk of ballots being tampered with during transit to other locations for final counting. Provisional results will be announced quickly. In 2005 results were not announced for over six weeks, which fueled rumors of election tampering. UNAMI expects IHEC to announce certified final results on February 23, but much of this depends on the number and severity of fraud allegations. Mitchell said UNAMI would be very involved in the dispute resolution process and had recently hired an international expert to work full time on the issue. She was confident effective complaint mechanisms would be in place in time for the elections, but cited a lack of capacity in IHEC's legal department as well as the fact that the department's offices were destroyed in an electrical fire in August as a significant challenge. DELAY ON TIMELINE STILL POSSIBLE -------------- ¶8. (C) One of Mitchell's biggest concerns is another fire delaying the timeline. The fire at IHEC in August was caused BAGHDAD 00003232 003 OF 003 by an over-taxed electrical system. IHEC staff that was located on the third floor where the fire occurred have been re-located to the second floor. This overcrowding is over-taxing that floor's electrical system. MNF-I has volunteered to bring the Army Corps of Engineers to the IHEC to assess its electrical system and provide assistance to reduce the risk of fire. CROCKER