UNAMI WANTS TO DECONFLICT ARTICLE 140 REPORTS FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003194

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM UN IZ
SUBJECT: UNAMI WANTS TO DECONFLICT ARTICLE 140 REPORTS FROM
SFA NEGOTIATIONS; KURDS WON'T GET MUCH IN NEXT ROUND; UN
INTEREST IN "GRAND BARGAIN"

Classified By: Classified By: Deputy PolCouns D'Elia: Reasons 1.4 (b an
d d).



1. (C) Summary: The UN will finish its Article 140 reports
on the Disputed Internal Boundaries (DIBs) issues by early
November, but UNAMI Deputy Gilmour told S/A Krajeski October
2 that they want to avoid disturbing the political atmosphere
prior to conclusion of U.S.-Iraq SFA negotiations. He has
heard from some CoR members that they want to delay signing
the agreement until after the change in U.S. Administrations.
He believes a "bridging" Security Council resolution (UNSCR)
will provoke less Russian opposition than we might think,
since the Russians would prefer UN sanction for U.S. troops
in Iraq rather than a long-term bilateral agreement. Gilmour
said the UN expects criticism for its Article 140 reports
from all sides, but especially from the Kurds, who will get
"not much" new territory. The UN will present four options
for Kirkuk Province, none of which looks like it could
attract consensus support. The UN remains interested in
exploring what a "grand bargain" on outstanding Baghdad-Erbil
political disputes might look like, and flagged a
soon-to-be-released ICG report. End summary.

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UNAMI Concentrating on Article 140 Process to Solve DIBs
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2. (C) In an October 2 meeting with Senior Advisor Krajeski,
UNAMI's Political Director Andrew Gilmour revealed internal
UN deliberations on political issues following passage of the
Provincial Elections Law. Gilmour said the UN will cooperate
with efforts by the Council of Representatives (CoR) but does
not plan to push for establishment (under article 24 of the
Provincial Elections Law) of the committee on Kirkuk.
Gilmour said UNAMI is almost finished with its work on the
status of the disputed internal boundaries (DIBs) issues
under Article 140 of the constitution, and that would remain
its primary focus. "It never occurred to me that this
(Article 24 of the Provincial Elections Law) will be the
solution," he said. One thing that has slowed the drafting
of reports has been the lack of authoritative sub-district
boundaries, a result of Saddam's numerous politically
motivated boundary changes.

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UNAMI Hopes to Avoid Conflict Between DIBs and SFA
Negotiations
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3. (C) Gilmour confirmed UNAMI's second and final round of
reports on the disputed areas would be finished by the
beginning of November, following which SRSG de Mistura will
decide when the political atmosphere is right for discussions
with the various parties. Gilmour agreed UNAMI will share
the reports with us privately first. Then it will share them
with the PM, Kurdish officials, and other interested parties.
The UN expects criticism from all sides, but does not plan
to revisit its findings based on the decibel level of
reactions. Gilmour said the UN wants to be careful not to
complicate U.S.-Iraq negotiations on the Strategic Framework
Agreement (SFA),and asked whether the U.S. wants the UN to
avoid releasing its reports prior to completion of an SFA.
Gilmour said UNAMI officials understand that senior U.S.
military officials want them to withhold dissemination of the
report, but UNAMI wants to be sure that Embassy Baghdad is
comfortable with a delay, perhaps until the end of November
if there is no SFA passed by the CoR before then.

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Some Iraqis Want to Delay SFA Agreement until New U.S.
Administration
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4. (C) As an aside, Gilmour said he has heard from a number
of CoR members that they hope to avoid signing an SFA until
after the next U.S. administration takes power, as a way to
ingratiate Iraq with the next President. He acknowledged
that absence of an SFA by the end of the year would severely
complicate UNAMI's own operations and the administrative
preparations for provincial elections in January. Gilmour
noted that, with regard to a possible bridging UNSCR, the
Russians might be less of a problem than we fear, since they
have a strong preference for UN authorization for U.S. troops
rather than a long term bilateral agreement between Iraq and
the U.S.

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Kurds Won't Like UNAMI's Options for Kirkuk

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5. (C) Gilmour agreed to provide a short preview of where
UNAMI expects to come out on DIBs territorial disputes,
commenting that this second and final set of reports would
delve into sub-district demography, history, politics and
economics to support findings on most of the disputed areas.
On Kirkuk, the UN would offer a range of four options: 1)
separate administrative status (perhaps as a stand-alone
region) within the province's current borders; 2) dual GOI
and KRG administration, with an oversight committee that
includes the GOI, KRG, UN, and perhaps the U.S. and EU; 3) a
confederated province of three ethnically-oriented (Kurdish,
Arab, and Turkomen) districts, either within the KRG or
outside it; and 4) dismembering the current province (with
the northern half joining the KRG, the southern half joining
Salah ad-Din Province, and the city given special
administrative status like Baghdad). Gilmour expects
criticism from all sides. The Kurds have already told the UN
they do not want to accept any resolution that puts Kirkuk
outside the KRG, and might even reject dual administration.
According to Gilmour, the Sunni Arabs from Hawija in western
Kirkuk Province would "go to war" if their district was
separated from Kirkuk city.

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KRG to Get Pieces of Ninewa
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6. (C) Kurdish hopes will mostly be dashed by UNAMI's other
recommendations. Gilmour said UNAMI has found no groundswell
of support among the Yezidis of Sinjar District in Ninewa
Province for joining the KRG. UNAMI staff also had concerns
that Sinjar is not contiguous with other parts of the KRG,
although Gilmour said the preference of local residents is
his primary concern. The UN will recommend that Tal Afar
District (also in Ninewa) be split approximately in half, but
the KRG will get less territory than Kurdish officials hoped.
UNAMI staff members commented that KRG authorities have not
pressed (with any passion) for Tel Keif District, so will get
at most a third of it, the sub-district of Faida formerly
administered by Dohuk and perhaps al Qosh. Regarding Sheikan
District, the UN will recommend it rejoin Dohuk Province,
although Gilmour said the Yezidis there would seek guarantees
of local autonomy.

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UNAMI Probably Will Reject KRG Claim to Khanaqin
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7. (C) UNAMI staff have not yet visited Tuz District in Salah
ad-Din Province. They want to visit soon, but also would be
interested in discussing further with U.S. officials. The UN
must consider whether to recommend that the predominantly
Turkomen district rejoin Kirkuk, which would change that
Province's ethnic proportions. In Diyala Province's Kifri
District, the Kurds have good claim to Karatapa sub-district.
It is unclear to the UN whether the city of Kifri is above
the Green Line and should be administered by the KRG.
Khanaqin District in Diyala will also be complicated,
according to Gilmour. The KRG has good claim to the two
northern sub-districts, according to UNAMI, while the two
southern sub-districts should stay with Diyala. That leaves
the central sub-district containing Khanaqin city. UNAMI
officials are leaning toward recommending this stay with
Diyala; although overwhelmingly a Kurdish town, Khanaqin is
populated by Faili Kurds who look to the Shia parties
(chiefly ISCI) for political representation, not the Kurdish
parties.

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UNAMI Still Interested in Pursuing Grand Bargain
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8. (C) The International Crisis Group is preparing a paper,
due out shortly, promoting a "Grand Bargain" to solve many of
Iraq's thorny political problems. According to Gilmour, the
main thrust of the paper will be that the KRG does not gain
Kirkuk Province but gets concessions on non-territorial
issues like the ability to contract with oil companies
independent of Baghdad. (Note: This is the opposite from
what KRG leaders have recently told us they want. They claim
they are willing to give up an independent claim to Kirkuk's
oil to gain agreement to a plan that allows Kirkuk's citizens
to choose whether to join the KRG. End Note.) Gilmour said
the UN is still interested in exploring what a grand bargain
might look like, and asked about the final version of the
Zelikow Report.


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COMMENT: UN Anxiety
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9. (C) Gilmour was very sensitive to the timing of U.S.
negotiations on the SFA and the possible release of UNAMI's
DIBs reports. He wanted our assurance that the U.S. would
not criticize UNAMI for another delay in the issuance of the
reports (noting that UNAMI had originally promised them by
April 10, 2008). Privately, he told S/A Krajeski that SRSG
de Mistura feared that the USG would "sell out UNAMI,s DIBs
proposals" by offering to "give Kirkuk to the Kurds" in
exchange for assurances that Kurdish support for the SFA
remained steadfast. Krajeski said this was ridiculous, Kurd
support for the SFA was solid, and we couldn,t deliver
Kirkuk to them in any case. UNAMI,s position with UN HQ in
NY is more solid following de Mistura,s "triumph" with the
provincial election law, but they remain exceptionally
skittish about the negative local reaction to the DIBs
reports and continued USG support for the process. End
comment.






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