UNAMI CONTEMPLATING GREATER ROLE IN FACILITATING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003070 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM UN IZ SUBJECT: UNAMI CONTEMPLATING GREATER ROLE IN FACILITATING "GRAND BARGAIN" BETWEEN BAGHDAD AND ERBIL Classified By: Senior Advisor Krajeski: Reasons 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In the face of some skepticism from UN Headquarters, SRSG de Mistura believes the UN should be more proactive in ameliorating tensions between Baghdad and Erbil. He is worried by rising Arab-Kurd tensions, concerned by news of a reported Turkish-Iranian agreement to stifle Kurdish autonomy by force if necessary, and regrets waning USG influence. Deputy SRSG Gilmour said UNAMI will finish its next round of reports on the Iraqi Disputed Internal Boundaries in early November but will decide when to release them based on the POLITICAL atmosphere. Gilmour worries about a negative reaction from the KRG, since the Kurds "will not get much" in terms of UNAMI recommendations for KRG territorial expansion. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UN Cautious, but Moving Forward on DIBs Reports - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Senior Advisor for northern Iraq Tom Krajeski, accompanied by Special Advisor to the CG Emma Sky, met with UNAMI Deputy SRSG Andrew Gilmour September 22. Gilmour said that NY is keeping UNAMI on a tight leash but will allow UNAMI to present its reports on the Disputed Internal Boundaries (DIBs) areas. The reports should be ready by early November, although UNAMI officials will consult with the USG, Kurdish Regional Government (KRG),and maybe others (probably including PM Maliki) in mid-October prior to their release. They plan to gauge POLITICAL atmospherics to determine whether or not the reports will be useful or provoke dispute. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UN Worries Kurds Won't Be Satisfied with UNAMI Findings - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Gilmour is worried the Kurds "will not get much" in the UN recommendations on territorial claims: most of Sheikan and Makhmour Districts, some of Tel Keif, a sliver of Tuz District, and three sub-districts of Khaneqin District (including the city). The UN will not recommend that Sinjar (strongly controlled by the Kurdish POLITICAL parties, but with a substantial Yazidi population) be allowed to join the KRG. According to Gilmour, UNAMI will prepare a separate paper on Kirkuk, with a menu of options, perhaps recommending some kind of autonomous status outside the KRG for the city and splitting the province along ethnic lines. Gilmour said that UNAMI had abandoned the idea of "trading" a few of the disputed districts in return for Kurd concessions on Kirkuk. To Gilmour, it looked increasingly like the Kurds will have to learn to live without Kirkuk and will get very little new territory out of the deal. Losing Sinjar will be particularly hard to swallow given the huge effort the KDP has put into claiming and controlling the largely Yazidi district. Gilmour agreed with Krajeski,s view that the Kurds would not take this news lightly, and he feared a rash reaction. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SRSG Wants to Be More Aggressive, Notes Waning USG Influence - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) SRSG Staffan de Mistura believes the UN should get more involved in facilitating a "grand bargain," and likes the ideas contained in the informal paper by Phil Zelikow. This would result in increased UNAMI involvement in negotiations over the hydrocarbons law, provincial elections, revenue sharing, and confidence building between Arabs and Kurds (to include improving RELATIONS between Baghdad and Erbil). De Mistura is concerned about an agreement between Turkey and Iran to stifle Kurdish autonomy by force if necessary, as the Iranians reportedly told him during his recent visit to Tehran. He believes USG influence will diminish during the next year as Iraqi parties -- Arab and Kurd -- seek to make deals without invoking the power and prestige of the U.S. Gilmour remarked that if there is no SOFA, it will be "curtains" for UNAMI, because UNAMI staff travel will be so restricted. ¶5. (C) Comment: UNAMI is determined to push ahead with the next phase of DIBs reports in spite of UN HQ timidity and the negative reaction in Kurdistan to the first four reports issued in June. There have been calls for SRSYG de Mistura,s head from a growing number of (mostly fringe) politicians -- Arab and Kurd. UNAMI,s problems regarding the DIBs process may be mounting but we should continue to offer support. Coupled with an increased effort to reinvigorate the "normalization" phase of Article 140 process, the UNAMI reports still offer a framework for BAGHDAD 00003070 002 OF 002 negotiation and resolution of the disputed internal boundaries of Iraqi Kurdistan. Considering the recent confrontation between KRG and GOI forces in Khaneqin, and the potential for further confrontations in Ninewa and Kirkuk, we need an option that does not involve soldiers and guns. End comment. CROCKER