NINEWA: GEO PREDICTS HIGH TURNOUT FOR PROVINCIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003029 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ SUBJECT: NINEWA: GEO PREDICTS HIGH TURNOUT FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS AS REGISTRATION PROCESS CONCLUDES Classified By: Ninewa PRT Leader Alex Laskaris, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message. ¶1. (C) Summary: The GOI,s chief elections officer in Ninewa Province is optimistic that Sunni Arab participation in provincial elections will be high. GEO Director Adel-Haleq Dabbagh based his optimism on local conversations he has had with Sunni leaders and the more than half million Ninewa citizens who participated in the voter registration update process. Dabbagh also noted his disappointment with the number of IDPs who registered and said he intends to seek additional time for IDPs. Finally, Dabbagh said that he is ready to present his plan to administer provincial elections to the Iraq High Elections Commission (IHEC). End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - GEO EXPECTS HIGH TURNOUT IN PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Ninewa PRT met with GEO Dabbagh on September 13 to discuss his views on final registration numbers, his plan for running the elections in Ninewa, and the overall mood of the public regarding the elections. In general, Dabbagh was upbeat about the prospects for high voter turnout for elections this year. Dabbagh said that Sunni Arabs across the province tell him that elections are a must and that boycotting provincial elections in 2005 was a mistake. Dabbagh said there is a minority, maybe 20 percent, who believe that provincial elections are only a U.S.-sponsored game that will not change anything. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FINAL NUMBERS FROM REGISTRATION PROCESS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Dabbagh said that 573,000 Ninewa voters participated in the registration process by confirming the accuracy or correcting errors in their registration details. That number represents nearly one third of the 1.5 million eligible voters in Ninewa. Dabbagh said that approximately one in 25 of the 573,000 noted an error in their registration information. (Note: In Iraq, most voters are automatically registered if they hold a Public Distribution Systems (PDS) card. However, if, on voting day, the voter,s information (e.g. full name or address) does not match what is on the voters roll, the citizen will not be allowed to vote. Therefore, the voter registry update was designed to allow an opportunity for citizens to check their registration information and update if necessary.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOW IDP REGISTRATION REMAINS A PROBLEM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Dabbagh noted two outstanding issues, one major and one minor. First, Dabbagh said he was not entirely satisfied with the number of IDPs who participated in the registration process. According to Dabbagh, people who have been displaced since August 2007 present a problem because they have not yet been registered. (Note: Citizens displaced before August 2007 are accounted for and are registered, according to Dabbagh.) Dabbagh said that he would propose to the IHEC an extension of the registration deadline for IDPs. Second, Dabbah alleged that Peshmerga at Kurdish checkpoints have "harassed" shipments of registration materials intended for parts of Ninewa under de facto Kurdish control by blocking them temporarily and searching them. Dabbagh did not claim the searches of elections related material were different in kind from other searches conducted at security checkpoints and does not consider them a major hindrance to the registration process. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - GEO TO PRESENT HIS ELECTION PLAN TO IHEC - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Dabbagh also said that he has finished identifying 632 locations that will serve as voting centers. Those centers will house 3,822 polling stations. According to Dabbagh, the voting centers will have three levels of security with the IP manning the inner ring and the IA guarding the outer two rings looking for VBIEDs and SVESTs. Dabbagh said he is ready to present his plan to the IHEC in Baghdad. ¶6. (C) Comment: We have found Dabbagh to be a competent technocrat, one who has worked well with both the Iraqi Security Forces and the coalition. While we cannot vouch for his skills as a political analyst, our emerging sense is that there is broad Sunni support for participation in the BAGHDAD 00003029 002 OF 002 electoral process. End comment CROCKER