SHELL LOOKS TO ESTABLISH A PRESENCE IN BASRA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002891 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE ALSO FOR EEB AND NEA/I; DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EPET ENRG EINV IZ SUBJECT: SHELL LOOKS TO ESTABLISH A PRESENCE IN BASRA SENSITIVE - NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION ¶1. This is a Regional Embassy Office Basra cable. ¶2. (SBU) Summary: A Shell International executive team visited Basra between August 28 and September 1 as part of its negotiations on a potential joint venture with the Iraqi government. Under the multi-billion dollar, 25-year agreement, Shell would develop a comprehensive natural gas production system that could end wasteful and polluting flare offs in Basra oil fields, generate substantial profits and make Iraq a self-sufficient exporter of natural gas. The team met with personnel from MND-SE, South Oil Refinery, a member of the Energy Fusion Cell, and the REO. They seemed confident that the company can to meet the challenges of setting up business in Iraq. (Note: Shell's efforts seemed to have been successful. A September 7 AP story reports that the Iraqi cabinet approved the Shell joint venture without providing other details.) End Summary. ¶3. (SBU) A Shell International executive team visited Basra between August 28 and September 1. The members of the team included: Tony Nieman, Venture Manager for Southern Iraq, Shell; Elsine van Os, Security Analyst, Shell; Katie Smith, Assistant Intelligence Manager, Olive Group; Mark Courtnell, Shell Regional Security Advisor; Bob Phillips, Mott MacDonald Program Manager (MMD); Peter Ebb, Operations Support Manager, MMD. The REO met three times with the team. First for an initial introduction meeting; then with Barry Kountz, Project Engineer for USACE GRD, Energy Fusion Cell; and finally with Qasim Ali Qadim, Technical Manager of South Oil Refinery. ¶4. (SBU) Tony Nieman, Shell Venture Manager for Southern Iraq, summarized the company's current efforts to reach an agreement on a multi-billion dollar 25-year joint venture with the Iraqi government. Nieman told REO that Iraqi wells flare off 800 million standard cubic feet of gas daily, at an estimated annual value -- at current market prices -- of more than $1.5 billion. (Note: Iraq's domestic price for natural gas would be several times less than the international price, and, unlike crude oil, gas is a less fungible product and generally priced according to the specific contract between supplier and consumer. The revenue from Shell's joint venture would therefore be less than $1.5 billion.) Security analyst Van Os added that environmentalists have condemned both the wasted fuel and the needless contamination from gas flaring. ¶5. (SBU) The joint venture would be based on a 49-51 split of the returns with the GOI from the capture of natural gas. 50% of the capture would go to the domestic market and the other 50% would be exported to the international market. Shell has carried on quiet negotiations with Iraqi officials outside Iraq for five years and just last week approved a framework agreement in Lebanon with unnamed Iraqi officials. Nieman said Shell already maintains good relations with South Oil Company (SOC) and expects to complete negotiations with the Ministry of Oil by the end of the year, signing a final contract in 14 to 16 months. MMD will start gathering data for Shell in Basra this October. Preparations will involve preliminary training for Iraqi staff and sufficient intelligence to support safe operations. ¶6. (SBU) Nieman remarked on the irony that Iraq is an electricity-starved gas importer when it could be an exporter, especially since expected petroleum production increases will result in even more natural gas by-product. He explained that as more gas is captured, Shell expects to contribute more towards electricity generation in Iraq. According to Nieman, Iraqis have plans to increase their electricity generation capacity, but there is a gap between their plans and actual projects initiated. An initial goal of the Shell project would be to take the oil infrastructure off the national power grid. The Iraqi oil industry should be able to provide for all oil field-related electricity needs. ¶7. (SBU) Although Shell has publicly postponed any projects to help Iraq boost oil production until the country's government finalizes a hydrocarbons law, Nieman noted that Shell viewed this project as falling outside the purview of that law since it involves midstream treatment, which falls under laws that regulate joint ventures. Shell lawyers are looking at the relevance of contract arbitration laws which seem to apply to state-owned entities. With a long track-record managing petroleum extraction in other countries, the company is used to working with these kinds of contract arbitration problems. In the meantime, the team plans to gather data, establish relationships, and hopes to initially work out of the MMD compound in Basra Airfield. ¶8. (SBU) Over the 25-years of the project, Shell expects to set up an entire natural gas production system, starting from a single base BAGHDAD 00002891 002 OF 002 and spreading out, all the way to gas liquefaction plants and port facilities. They are confident their experience can guide them in negotiating and implementing this project, while also building Iraqi sustainability. Shell officials indicated that other private companies, such as GE and Mitsubishi, would also be involved in the project, although not initially. They cited their 40-year contract for natural gas production with Oman, which has recently been renewed for an additional 40 years, as an example of the successfully proven investment model they hope to use in Iraq. ¶9. (SBU) In the face of dire warnings from Qasim Ali Qadim, Technical Manager of South Oil Refinery, about rampant official and private corruption in the Iraqi system, Shell representatives say they are confident the company's wealth of experience in other corrupt cultures, such as Nigeria, as well as the obvious benefits to Iraqis, will give this project what it needs to succeed. Shell sees this as a win-win situation coupling long-term sustainability with benefits to the average Basrawi: employment, income and reliable electric power. Getting this contract in place and operational will also put Shell ahead of future competitors for even more lucrative oil contracts. ¶10. (SBU) Comment: Nieman is well aware of the uneasy relationship between MoO, SOC, and SGC (South Gas Company),commenting that, whenever the Shell delegation left the room, they would inevitably start arguing with each other. Having served previously in places like Iran and Kazakhstan, Nieman did not seem concerned about the bickering. He asked a lot of questions about corruption, however, anxious to assess its extent. Additionally, having just learned about the Chinese oil deal with Iraq, Nieman commented that upon his return to his office in Dubai he would be anxious to get Shell's analysis of it, as it seems to have somehow skirted the issues revolving around the lack of a hydrocarbons law, especially for an upstream deal. He also remarked that a 70-30% split in returns was highly unusual. The Shell deal, once executed, should also draw in smaller companies (Shell contractors and subcontractors) and induce other investors to follow suit, convincing that Basra can support profitable business. ¶11. (SBU) Comment cont'd.: A September 7 AP story reports that the Iraqi Cabinet approved the Shell joint venture, suggesting that Shell's hopes that Iraq's agreement with the China National Petroleum Company would serve as a precedent were well placed. (Initial details of the media reporting are consistent with the information that Shell provided to REO Basra.) While Shell might not be correct that its deal falls outside the scope of the hydrocarbons law (Section Four of one of the drafts, for example, covers exploitation of natural gas),the MoO seems determined to invite foreign participation now rather than wait on the uncertain prospect of hydrocarbons law passage. While there may still be operational details to be worked out, e.g., clarity on a dispute resolution mechanism and harmonization of its plan with existing MoO facilities for capture of natural gas, such as the Zubair gas collection plant, the Shell deal will be a welcome development for both the Iraqi people and Iraq's environment. (The Zubair facility, once operational, will capture 100 million cubic feet per day, septel, of flare gas.). Crocker