GENERAL OTHMAN TALKS TRIBES, SECURITY, IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002802 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV IR IZ SUBJECT: GENERAL OTHMAN TALKS TRIBES, SECURITY, IRAN REF: BAGHDAD 2683 Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) General Othman, Commander of the Iraqi Army (IA) 8th Division (responsible for all five Middle Euphrates provinces),spoke openly with Senior Advisor Gordon Gray on August 27 regarding political dynamics in the region, particularly developments that will impact the security situation. Key topics included the religious parties governing the region, the potential for Shi'a tribes in upcoming provincial elections, and the ongoing security threat posed by militias and Iran. The General, himself a tribal sheikh from Diwaniyah, encouraged coordination between the Prime Minister's office and Shi'a tribes -- including through 'support councils' -- as a means of countering ISCI/Badr dominance in the region. While sanguine about IA capability to handle security threats in the region, he warned of slippage in Basra and Amara, where he predicted security would worsen further with the recent return of Iranian-trained insurgents. End summary. IA Relations with ISCI/Badr -------------- ¶2. (C) Speaking in his Diwaniyah headquarters, General Othman made clear his dislike for the ruling ISCI/Badr party in the province. Othman emphasized that Hamed al-Khudari (ISCI; former Provincial Council Chair, now Governor) did not support Operation Lion's Pounce in late 2007, and that the IA and Coalition Forces (CF) had to pressure him into acting against Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) elements. He noted with disdain that ISCI/Badr had earlier this year arrested Provincial Council (PC) members with alleged JAM affiliations, and is now trying to take credit for security gains. The General was still irritated with Khudari for his role in seizing agricultural equipment and fertilizer distributed by CF and IA to tribal villages, and for his role in freezing the emerging Southern Awakening program in Diwaniyah. ISCI/Badr, he argued, knows that it is vulnerable even in Diwaniyah (see reftel for details). He conceded, however, that ISCI is working hard to organize tribes through patronage. Othman alleged that Badr has Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC) staff on the payroll in Najaf, Hillah, Diwaniyah, and Wasit, and that they will "teach the 60% of uneducated Iraqis how to vote." Tribes and Sadrists -------------- ¶3. (C) While conceding the strength of ISCI/Badr in the upcoming provincial elections, the General said the Shi'a tribes in the south and middle Euphrates have a chance to organize a counter-response -- if they link efforts with Prime Minister Maliki. A sheikh from the Ghanami tribe in the northeast corner of Diwaniyah Province with strong links to organizers of the movement, Othman was more skeptical than his tribal peers about independent tribal electoral prospects due to lack of needed funding. The General noted that Prime Minister Maliki had made aggressive efforts to recruit tribes through support councils, paying out 25 million Iraqi dinars (20,000 USD) last month as seed payments. Othman stated categorically that he and his army support such efforts as a means of countering Iranian influence. ¶4. (C) The General also noted a division within "Sadrist" elements in the province and region. He noted that moderate, relatively educated Sadrists had been meeting lately in an attempt to rebrand their movement under the image and guidance of Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Sadr (i.e., Sadr I). Othman believes that they would be likely to win some seats on the Provincial Council if they can get out their message. Iran and Ongoing Security Threats -------------- ¶5. (C) Othman made a point of emphasizing that the Iraqi Army can handle security matters in the region and the country. He warned, however, of increasing threats from Iran. The General claimed that "three companies" of newly trained Iraqi insurgents -- presumably JAM members -- had recently entered from Iran in the Maysan area. The General said that these members are focused on disrupting Basra and Maysan, and have already increased mortar attacks, assassination attempts, and IED bombings in the area. He also noted that some insurgents are in the South Central region now, citing the discovery the previous night of a car with IED equipment near a South Babil checkpoint. "We know who they are and we are watching," Othman said of the insurgents in Diwaniyah. "We are looking for a suitable time to make a move." BAGHDAD 00002802 002 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) General Othman, widely considered one of the most effective commanders in the IA, reinforced several trends we had noticed elsewhere in the South. Like other Shi'a IA commanders, Othman draws distinctions between ISCI/Badr and Prime Minister Maliki (and, by extension, Da'wa). He also confirmed that tribal support councils are being organized not only by the PM's office but also by the Iraqi Army itself. As a proponent of a Sons of Iraq program in Diwaniyah -- which was scuttled by both Maliki and ISCI/Badr -- he sees support councils as a means to help provide security in the provinces. It is unclear how comfortable he really is with the politicization of support councils, but he certainly expressed no dissent. The General believes that he can provide security during any future election, but worries openly about the willingness of political groups to guarantee honest elections. End comment. BUTENIS