ERBIL: NEW KURDISH COMMITTEE ON ARTICLE 140, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002660

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PTER IZ
SUBJECT: ERBIL: NEW KURDISH COMMITTEE ON ARTICLE 140, AND
KURDISH REACTION TO FAILED PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS LAW

Classified By: Classified By: RRT Erbil Regional Coordinator Lucy Taml
yn for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)

This is an Erbil Regional Reconstruction Team message.


1. (C) Summary: KRG Minister of Extra-Regional Affairs
Mohammed Ihsan told RRT Deputy Team Leader (DTL) that all
previous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) committees on
Article 140 have been abolished, and one committee, called
the High Committee on Article 140 (Committee),has been
established. Ihsan said he will serve as Chairman, and that
most of the members can be considered &moderate.8 On the
CoR,s failure to pass the election law, Ihsan noted that
Islamic or Kurdish nationalist forces could take power in the
Kurdistan Region if the current Kurdish leadership continued
to fail on resolving Kirkuk. He also complained the U.S.
takes the Kurds for granted and should not push them to offer
further concessions. The Kurdish public may be disenchanted
with the Kurdish leadership, but the cause is more likely to
be corruption, limited essential services, and unemployment,
rather than Kirkuk. End summary.

New KRG Article 140 Committee established
--------------


2. (C) Minister of Extra-Regional Affairs for the Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG) Mohammed Ihsan told RRT Deputy Team
Leader (DTL) in a meeting August 10 that all previous
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) committees on Article 140
have been abolished, and one committee, called the High
Committee on Article 140 (Committee),has been established.
Ihsan will serve as Chair of the committee, which will be
made up of Kurdish members of the Council of Representatives
and KRG and provincial level Kurdish officials. Ihsan said
the Committee,s mandate is to represent Kurdish views on
issues related to Kirkuk and other Disputed Internal
Boundaries (DIBs) to the US, UNAMI, Arabs, and to Turkomen
and other minority communities. The Committee will replace
the Article 140 Committee in the Kurdistan National Assembly
(KNA),chaired by KNA Deputy Speaker Kemal Kerkuki, and the
KRG Presidency Council Committee on Article 140, chaired by
Toilers Party Secretary General Qadir Aziz. Ihsan noted that
the members of the new committee are viewed as moderate, and
Kirkuk hard-liners such as Kerkuki have been excluded.
Members of the new committee are:

Mohammed Ihsan, Chair of Committee, member of Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP)
Sa,adi Barzinji, CoR and KDP member
Khalid Shwan, CoR and KDP member
Rizgar Ali, Kirkuk Provincial Council Chair, member of
Patriot Union of Kurdistan (PUK)
Rafaat Abdulla, member of PUK Kirkuk branch
Najat Hassan, member of KDP Kirkuk branch
Mohammed Faraj, KNA and Kurdistan Islamic Union member
Sherwan Hairder, KNA and KDP member

Kurdish reaction to failed election law
--------------


3. (C) Ihsan said KRG President Massoud Barzani traveled to
Kirkuk on August 8 due to the extreme public pressure he came
under from the &thousands of letters and petitions8 he
received, asking why he had failed the Kurds in resolving
Kirkuk. Ihsan also complained that the US has misused
Kurdish friendship with the US by continually pressuring the
Kurds to delay and compromise on the issue of Kirkuk.
&Don,t press us more8 he exhorted, adding that the issue
needs to be resolved by the end of the year. Furthermore,
during this period, diplomatic and military options would
need to be considered. Ihsan added that if no solution was
found by the end of 2008, the KRG would not be able to
control the Kurdish public, which could react violently to
the failure of Kurdish leadership to resolve Kirkuk. He said
the public could also turn to either Islamic or Kurdish
nationalistic elements in the next elections, endangering the
special friendship the Kurds have with the US. When probed
by DTL on which nationalistic Kurds could take over, Ihsan
suggested Qadir Aziz, but could not come up with any other
names.

Comment
--------------

4. (C) Although provincial elections are not scheduled for
the KRG provinces, the failed federal election law is a
black-eye for the Kurdish leadership in its quest to add
Kirkuk to the KRG. The situation is exacerbated by the
Kurdish leadership,s continuing failure to lower Kurdish
expectations that DIBs will be resolved soon. Ihsan,s
remarks regarding the disenchantment of the Kurdish public
with their leaders may be correct, but in the RRT,s opinion
those sentiments stem mostly from the corruption, lack of job

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opportunities, and poor service delivery rather than the
failed elections law and Kirkuk. We have heard more than one
allegation that marchers in the recent Erbil demonstration
protesting Election law 24 were paid or pressured to attend.


5. (C) Ihsan,s suggestion that Qadir Aziz could potentially
take over power within the KRG seems unrealistic. Aziz has a
tiny following and appears to the public as thoroughly
co-opted by the existing leadership. It is more difficult to
judge the popularity of Islamic parties such as the Kurdistan
Islamic Union and the Kurdistan Islamic Group. Upcoming KNA
elections scheduled for June 2009, will ) if free and fair
-- determine their actual popularity. End Comment.
CROCKER