IRAQI NSC ON AUGUST 10 REVIEWS SECURITY SITUATION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002608 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2018 TAGS: MOPS MARR MASS PREL PTER IZ SUBJECT: IRAQI NSC ON AUGUST 10 REVIEWS SECURITY SITUATION IN MOSUL-NINEWA, DIYALA OPERATIONS, AND BUDGET EXECUTION REF: BAGHDAD 02510 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S/REL MCFI) Summary: Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki chaired the August 10 meeting of the National Security Council (I-NSC) that focused on security operations in Diyala, budget execution, and the need for re-energized security operations in Mosul in the face of an up-tick of AQI and criminal activity in Ninewa province. The Council also discussed removing T-walls in Baghdad, securing religious marches, protecting judges, and revitalizing Sadr City reconstruction. End Summary. Security Better, but. . . -------------- ¶2. (S/REL MCFI) Maliki opened the meeting with the suggestion that the concrete barriers (T-walls) in many parts of Baghdad be removed from areas where they are no longer needed. He cited the International Zone (IZ) as such a place, noting that removing the walls would make the IZ more appealing - it is secure, let's make its image better, he added. The Ministers of Defense and of Interior agreed that the issue should be studied, suggesting the formation of a committee by the Baghdad Operations Center (BOC) to evaluate where the T-walls were no longer needed. The BOC committee would include the Baghdad city administration and representatives for the Ministries of Interior and Defense and the Multi-national Force-Iraq (MNF-I). MNF-I Commanding General (CG) David Petraeus signaled his support for the study. Mosul and Ninewa Need Support -------------- ¶3. (S/REL MCFI) Minister of Defense Abdul Qadr noted that there had been a decrease of violence in the city of Mosul and throughout the province of Ninewa but more operations were needed, particularly in Tal Afar and Mosul. He called for heliborne or airborne operations in two terrorist facilitation areas in the Al Jazeera desert area west of Mosul. (He noted that soon the Iraqi M-17 helicopters would be ready for operations.) ¶4. (S/REL MCFI) MOD cited the lack of cooperation from residents of Mosul (Mosawis) as a reason for the continuing violence. MOI Jawad al-Bulani agreed, calling for a renewal of the relationship between the GOI and the people in the province. Bulani observed that in some areas AQI and Baathists are still coming back and hoping to create chaos and split different ethnic groups. ¶5. (S/REL MCFI) PM Maliki agreed with the assessment that providing security requires more than just military action. He stated that security requires reconstruction, delivery of social services, and reconciliation among the different groups (Sunni, Shia, Kurds, Yazidis). He described Mosul as an old stronghold of the Baath Party, and noted the GOI must work with the tribal leaders and undermine the Baathists to succeed. He assessed that the final resolution of the situation would require political reconciliation. ¶6. (S/REL MCFI) Minister of State for National Security Shirwan Wa'eli argued that the situation in Mosul was getting worse. He painted a dire picture of a resurgent AQI and Baathists, citing suicide bombings, extortion, and smuggling to finance criminal and terrorist activity. The Deputy Director of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) added that AQI was still active and that assassinations continued. The PM responded that Iraqi Security Forces and Iraqi intelligence services must work together - intelligence efforts are crucial to success, he added. ¶7. (S/REL MCFI) Summing up, National Security Advisor (NSA) Dr. Muwaffaq Rubaie decried the siphoning off of reconstruction funds to AQI or criminal elements via extortion, contractor fees, and protection rackets. He called for precisely targeted operations against those preying on the people. He thought it important to determine how to break the climate of fear in Mosul as had been done in Basra. PM Maliki agreed, adding that the ISF must be strong and take decisive action against those seeking to use Syrian help to undermine the GOI. When asked if the I-NSC should consider an additional IA or National Police brigade, Maliki called for greater use of special Counter-terrorism units and Iraqi Special Operations Forces. Diyala Operations -------------- BAGHDAD 00002608 002 OF 003 ¶8. (S/REL MCFI) MOD reported that operations in Diyala were proceeding well, underlining the excellent cooperation between the IA and IP. MOI concurred, adding that a police presence was being established in areas from which it had been absent. He noted the need to hire more police from the local community. The PM observed that the Awakening Councils had opened centers in Diyala. MOD stated that phase two of the three phase operation started on August 8, and he noted that most brigades had already achieved their objectives. ¶9. (S/REL MCFI) Deputy PM Dr. Rafi Issawi underscored the importance of creating jobs and providing needed services to the people of Diyala. Noting the impression from his visit to Diyala the day before, he announced that major deficiencies in the Ministries of Health and of Education must be addressed. Reconstruction, Issawi argued, must also take into account what is needed to revitalize the agriculture sector in Diyala Province, to include water wells, agricultural implements, and equipment to transport water to farms. He stated that compensation must be paid in a timely way to those whose property has been damaged or destroyed in the security operations and that benefits should be paid to those who had died assisting ISF. He also reported that there had been problems with coordination, arguing that some arrests in Diyala had been carried out based on old, outdated information. ¶10. (S/REL MCFI) PM Maliki interrupted the discussion at that point to call the IA commanding general in Diyala - Maliki told him to pay the volunteers and martyrs their benefits and immediately provide his lists of outstanding warrants for deconfliction. ¶11. (S/REL MCFI) General discussion then ensued on the importance of providing services as a follow-up to security operations. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, PM, and NSA all highlighted the need to respond quickly with reconstruction and development assistance. MOI also intervened, stressing the need for a fair distribution of services to the different groups, for example the Kurds, in the province. The Prime Minister noted the need for the Ministries to push and encourage reconstruction efforts, and he authorized them to make an exception and pursue direct contracting to speed their efforts. The CG voiced strong support for this line of action, noting that this direction was as important as the direction to launch the operation in Basra in March that fundamentally changed the strategic situation. Services should have been provided to take advantage of the situation, however, and provided quickly, he added. In Basra and Sadr City, however, those GOI reconstruction efforts were timid and not fully implemented. General Petraeus complimented the PM's aggressive direction and desire to capitalize on what had been achieved by the Iraqi Army, Police, and people. Pause in Diyala for Amnesty -------------- ¶12. (S/REL MCFI) DPM Issawi requested clarification on amnesty opportunities in Diyala. The PM floated the idea of a suspension or pause in raids for a couple days to allow fighters in Diyala to lay down their arms under an offer of amnesty. MOD expressed some reluctance, noting that the option of surrender under amnesty already existed. (Note: The GOI later announced a pause in offensive combat operations in Diyala from Monday, August 11 to Friday, August ¶15. End Note.) Budget Execution -------------- ¶13. (S/REL MCFI) Minister of Finance Bayan Jabr distributed spreadsheets to the Council showing budget execution to date. General Petraeus noted that the Ministry of Oil had a negative spending balance when returned letters of credit left over from last year were included. Jabr responded by insisting that budget execution in 2008 was better than last year, citing a figure of fifty-seven percent executed by Ministries and fifty percent by Provinces as of August 1. He did, however, admit that some Ministries were doing better than others and some, like the Ministry of Oil, were procrastinators. In reviewing the tables on the documents, he noted some errors - he promised to revise the presentation and return next week with more easily understood budget documentation with all figures corrected. Shabaniyah Walk -------------- ¶14. (S/REL MCFI) The Prime Minister noted the need for thorough preparation for the upcoming Shabaniyah walk, which commemorates the birth of the 12th Imam. He also complained BAGHDAD 00002608 003 OF 003 of the number of marches taking place with the consequent loss of economic activity and disruption of life, as well as extra demands on the ISF. Expressing his understanding for the people's interest in enjoying the freedom to march, banned under Saddam's dictatorship, he still suggested talking to Grand Ayatollah Sistani and the Marja about reducing the number of walks. General Petraeus informed the Council that the Iraqi planning for this security operation has been quite impressive and reflects a very good Iraqi effort that is much better than for last year's Shabaniyah. He also recommended the PM visit his National Operations Center (NOC) and suggested that DMOI MG Ayden should like in the NOC during the event and all GOI agencies and the MNF-I should have liaisons there. He also agreed with the PM about the need to reduce the number of walks, underlining the negative economic impact of so many marches - Iraq will not be able to compete successfully in the global economy due to losses from frequent marches, curfews, bans on vehicle traffic, etc., he added. Detainees and Judicial Fear -------------- ¶15. (S/REL MCFI) The PM observed that judges are continuing to be attacked. As a result, the judiciary was not doing its job. Judges' fears for their and their families' safety undermined effective judicial decision-making. MOI called for dedicated armored vehicles and more judicial police, properly equipped, to protect the judges. He also suggested that the GOI provide secure housing near the Rule of Law Complex to judges to lessen their fear of reprisal. Sadr City Reconstruction -------------- ¶16. (S/REL MCFI) D/PM Issawi remarked that complaints from Sadr City residents about the GOI's failure to complete reconstruction and development projects were growing. He hinted that a meeting with the Sadr City committee might be useful. After some general discussion, the PM called for quick action and avoiding further studies and long bureaucratic processes. The key to success is to implement the projects for which funding has already been budgeted. CROCKER