SURVEY OF SOUTHERN POLITICAL ENTITIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002505 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV IR SUBJECT: SURVEY OF SOUTHERN POLITICAL ENTITIES REF: A. HILLAH 00062 ¶B. BAGHDAD O/I 7/8/08 ¶C. BAGHDAD 2270 ¶D. BAGHDAD 2124 ¶E. BAGHDAD 0458 ¶F. BAGHDAD 0699 Classified By: Classified by Acting Deputy Political Counselor John Fox for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is a joint Baghdad - PRT - REO reporting cable. ¶2. (C) Summary: 229 political entities (individual candidates and parties) registered in the southern provinces for the upcoming provincial elections. The number and composition of the entities is another manifestation of widespread dissatisfaction with the religious parties currently in power - over half of the parties use the word 'independent' in their name, and many of the individual candidates advertise themselves as technocrats - doctors, engineers, teachers and scientists. Even the parties themselves are often closely associated with a single, locally popular figure, and candidates will likely compete as much on personal reputation as political platforms. Although the Sadr Trend is not participating in the elections, Sadrist-affiliated parties and candidates are also registered in many, but not all, provinces. End Summary. Overview -------------- ¶3. (C) Overall, 112 parties and 117 individuals in southern provinces registered to compete in the provincial elections, representing 46 percent of registered political entities nationwide and 67 percent of registered provincial entities. Numerous contacts in the south have described widespread disenchantment with 'the parties' (hizb / ahzaab - referring to the Islamic parties that came into power in the 2005 elections) and emphasized the importance of electing independent groups. The list of registered entities reflects these sentiments; only four candidates and 26 parties competed under the same name in the 2005 elections, and over half (57) of the party names contain some variant of the word 'independent.' Only three - Hizbollah in Maysan, Hizb Da'wa Tanzim in Basrah, and the national Iraqi Da'wa Party - contain the word 'party' itself. Of the individual candidates, only one - Anam al-Sulahi from Basrah - is a woman. Babil -------------- ¶4. (C) Former Babil governor Iskander Witwit enjoys some tribal support in the north of the governorate but was previously forced from office by the rival Sayyid Rasul faction and has a mixed public reputation. The Qais al-Mamuri list, named after the assassinated Babil IP Chief, has received a good amount of publicity. However, Qais' burial site was recently vandalized, and there are concerns that attacks will continue against the family and candidates. The Independent Iraqi Democratic Assembly for Freedom and Construction is compromised of former Baathists and is led by Sayid Aziz al-Hussayni, one of three Iraqis originally asked by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to be Babil's governor. Finally, four entities participated in the 2005 elections and received significant public support: The Powerful, Trustworthy Independent Bloc; Our Family; The Independent National Union; and the Independent Partisans Bloc. While the religious parties are courting tribal leaders throughout the province (ref A) others are hiding behind the auspices of an 'independent' slate. The Independent Cadre and Teachers Union, for example, is reportedly an ISCI/Badr front that is courting teachers and school-aged voters in and around the province. Basrah -------------- ¶5. (C) The Justice and Unity Assembly is a coalition formed from local intellectuals, technocrats, and tribal leaders (ref B). The United Arab Emirates are supporting the Free Democratic Iraq Assembly; although Sheikh Muzahim Kan'an al-Tamimei runs the party his nephew, Mohammad al-Kan'an, is registered as the party head. Mohammed's father worked for Iranian and Iraqi intelligence and was executed by Saddam. The Revolutionaries of the Shabaniyah Uprising Movement is connected to the local OMS and led by Adil Abdel Sayid, a moderate Sadrist. The Union of Political Prisoners in the Center and the South is led by Sitar al-Imarah, who claims to be independent but has ties to ISCI. The Independent Organization for Social Justice and Development is registered under Sheikh Rashash al-Imarah but is led by Tawfiq al-'Abadi, who lacked the degree necessary to register. BAGHDAD 00002505 002 OF 003 Tawfiq is related to former governor and local head of the Badr Corps, Hasan al-'Abadi, and is alleged to receive support from ISCI, Badr, and Kuwait. Local contacts also claim that several candidates, including Sabah al-Bazuni, Adil Rahma, and Musa al-Halfi, are true independents, although the extent of their popular support is unknown. Dhi Qar -------------- ¶6. (C) The Sheikhs' Council of Southern Tribes is led by Sheikh Ali Munshid, an ally of the Governor and a supporter of U.S. and Coalition efforts. On July 16, 900 sheikhs gathered under the auspices of the council and a Muthanna-based tribal movement, the Assembly of the Middle Euphrates, to denounce religious parties and the delays in holding provincial elections (ref C). The Independent List for Justice and Development is led by former Dhi Qar governor Sheikh Sabri; according to unconfirmed allegations he signed a pact with OMS to gain support. Abdul Hussein al-Dukhali heads an organization for victims of persecution by the Saddam regime and has ties to Da'wa. Freedom of Independent Shatra is led by the head of the Shatra City Council who in the past was affiliated with JAM/OMS, and allegedly still receives support from moderate JAM/OMS members. Solidarity in Iraq is the party of Mohammed Mehdi al-Baqir and the local front for Sharistani's national party. The Sons of Rifa'i are a tribal-affiliated group with alleged ties to ISCI. Engineer 'Abd-ul-Khaliq al-Khafaji is a relative of Sheikh Amr al-Khafaji, an influential sheikh from the corner of Garraf area in northern Dhi Qar, and of Aws al-Khafaji, a known JAM commander, but the extent of his links to either is unknown. Karbala -------------- ¶7. (C) The National Gathering for Iraqi Tribes in Holy Karbala is led by Sheikh Abass Alwan al-Hussein Aziz. In June provincial Da'wa leaders, including Governor Aqeel al-Khazali, agreed to run with the gathering on a unified slate in Karbala (ref D). Maysan -------------- ¶8. (C) Abilities of Maysan is a led by Zaid al-Hoshi, a close aide to the Sadrist governor who may also have ties to VP Abdel Mehdi. DG of Municipalities Ali Atwan is also affiliated with the Sadrists and running as an independent candidate. Perennial Maysani political figure Karim Mahud al-Muhammadawi (aka Abu Khatim or 'The Prince of the Marshes' - ref E) has again registered his Hizbollah in Iraq party. Muthanna -------------- ¶9. (C) Najim Abed Sayah (aka Abu Chefat),founder of the Sons of the Two Euphrates, is a prominent Albu Hassan sheikh with connections to other Sunni and Shia tribes. Mohammed Fawaz Jabar al-Zayadi drove a bus in San Diego from 1993-2003 as a refugee before returning to Iraq with the Department of Defense. He made millions skimming contracts with the Japanese government and is recruiting progressive young sheikhs for a campaign focusing on development and tourism. Governor Ahmed Marzouk is running as head of The Public and enjoys considerable financial and political backing. The aforementioned Mid-Euphrates Assembly is led by PC Member Hakim Khasan, a former member of the Iraqi Opposition Conference who is rumored to suffer from schizophrenia. Najaf -------------- ¶10. (C) The Independent Reform Assembly is led by Raad al-Haris and enjoys the financial support of his brother, Deputy Minister of Electricity Saad al-Haris. The 1991 Uprising Trend for Shabaniyah People is chaired by Aboud Ghanim, locally well-known for his participation in the 1991 Intifada against Saddam's government. The Hamidi Assembly for Independents is a front for the Najaf Sahwa and its chair, Adnan al-Hamidi, enjoys close ties with Sheikh Abu Risha. He was arrested and subsequently released by the provincial government due to his efforts to organize the Najaf tribes. The Independent Assembly is led by Najaf PC Chair Abdul Hussein al-Mousawi and includes famous Najafi academics and intelligentsia. Fulfillment to Najaf is headed by Iraqi intelligence official and former Najaf governor Adnan al-Zurfi, a pro-American politician who fought against the Sadrists and is vehemently anti-ISCI. Sadr al-Iraq is led by Sadrist MP Haidar Fakharaldeen, while candidate Sayyid Huseein al-Mousawi is also affiliated with the Sadr Trend. Finally, Isam al-Sayyid Nour al-Yassiri is the son of Nour BAGHDAD 00002505 003 OF 003 al-Yasiri, famous for his resistance to the British in 1920, and is affiliated with ISCI and is popular in many rural areas. Wasit -------------- ¶11. (C) Mohammed Eidan al-Waeli is the mayor of Numaniyah and likely a passive supporter of JAM elements. Oday al-Ghawari is the son of the Wasit representative to Ayatollah Sistani. The Independent Assembly for Sheikhs in Wasit is led by Sheikh Tagwaha, acting DG of Education prior to the establishment of the CPA. The Wasitoun Assembly was founded by Shi'a endowment head Fawzi al-Bakiri and has a technocratic focus (ref F). The Yasiri House is the party of PC member Hadi al Yasiri. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Tribal leaders, technocrats, and independents are all political alternatives to the religious parties currently in power and are represented to varying degrees in every southern province. Despite the wide array of opposition figures, it remains unclear how many of these fledging independent candidates will be able to compete against the party machinery of the status quo and retain their autonomy against attempts from religious parties to hijack their image and message. Ultimately, the most competitive entities may well be coalitions formed from tribal and technocratic candidates that combine rural popularity with professional acumen. End Comment. CROCKER