FORMER IHEC OFFICIAL HANDICAPS WASIT ELECTIONS

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 002471 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV IZ SUBJECT: FORMER IHEC OFFICIAL HANDICAPS WASIT ELECTIONS REF: A. 07 BAGHDAD 212 ¶B. 08 BAGHDAD 2089 Classified By: PRT Team Leader Robert Kagler for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (U) This is a PRT Wasit reporting cable. ¶2. (C) Summary. PRT met August 2 with Haidar Abed Allawi, former Wasit office manager for the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) currently employed by the Basrah IHEC office. Haidar sees new evidence of the ISCI bias of Wasit's new Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) and forecasts electoral ruin for the province's dozens of upstart political entities. End summary. ¶3. (S) True to form, Haidar had little good to say about Wasit's new GEO (Kadhem Abdul al Shemmari) and Deputy GEO (Hamza Abeyass Kadhem). "The GEO is an ISCI backer. He knows nothing about elections. His deputy Hazma knows nothing about elections." Asked about to elaborate, Haidar replied that "It makes a big difference that the head of the office is ISCI. Kadhem has been allowing people to get hired without the proper vetting. He rehired Khaled al Araji, whose brother is a Badr Organization terrorist." (Note: On January 16, 2007, CF arrested two Wasit PC members on suspicion of facilitating EFP networks. One of those arrested (ref A) was Qassim al-Araji, Khaled's brother. End comment.) "Khaled is very admired, but he is very political" Haidar said, adding: "Also, ISCI will manipulate the elections process by selecting elections observers." (Note: Over 10,000 trained election obververs have registered with IHEC. In addition, everal NGOs are conducting Party Agent oberver training and encouraging each party to send its agent to every polling center to act as observers. End Note.) ¶4. (C) Haidar again raised the specter of "shadow" lists, or so-called independents bankrolled by parties, saying that "all the parties are doing it. ISCI has a list to pursue their agenda." Haidar predicted that Wasit ISCI party head Ahmed al Hakim, Hayy native and Badr Organization member Abu Mohammed al Kinnani and Hizballah party member Abu Kadhem al Meeyahee would all be elected to the PC. ¶5. (C) "Independents are doomed," opined Haidar. "Not one person from these 'political organizations' will be elected. They had the 25 million Iraqi Dinar needed to register, but not the 70 million Iraqi Dinar needed to run a real campaign." Asked whether groups of professionals such as doctors or attorneys might be able to cover the cost of campaigning, Haidar replied: "The Iraqi does not spend money from his own pocket for such things." A possible exception is independents who were elected in 2005 under the marja'iyya-sanctioned Gathering of Iraqi Elites. Haidar expects at least three such independents to run competitively, including the current PC Chair Mohammed Hassan Jabber, Hajj official Mohammed Ghazal, and Wasit University Arabic professor Dr. Naim. Asked to handicap the provincial elections, Haidar ranked ISCI first, followed by the Sadr Trend, the "institutional" independents, Fadilah, so-called "favorite sons," and at most two candidates from the profusion of newly founded political organizations. ¶6. (C) Comment: Haidar paints with a broad brush and sometimes contradicts himself, but he has been a friendly PRT contact and his move to Basrah seems to have loosed his tongue on matters Wasit-related. It is unclear why parties would create "shadow" lists when their proclaimed strategy has been to bring independents into their parties (ref B). PRT has heard this claim from other sources, most recently Wasit Shia Endowment head Fawzi al Bakiri, who asserted that ISCI COR member Majeed Khayr Allah Rahi had established such a list. Still, given the discontent with religious parties, the proliferation of political entities in Wasit -- 48 at last count -- could in part be an effort to confuse the electorate with falsely independent groups. End comment. CROCKER