SOUTHWEST TRIBES BEGINNING TO AWAKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002447

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV IR IZ
SUBJECT: SOUTHWEST TRIBES BEGINNING TO AWAKE

REF: A. BAGHDAD 2307

B. BAGHDAD 2273

C. BAGHDAD 2124

Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The south's tribes are poised to play a
significant role in the provincial elections. On July 30 and
31 Senior Advisor Gordon Gray met with leaders of three
emerging tribal-based political parties, two of which - the
Sheikhs' Council of Southern Tribes and the Mid-Euphrates
Alliance - have reportedly allied with Sheikh Abu Risha and
the Mutammar Sahwa al-Iraq (MSI),or Iraq Awakening
Conference. Although the popular support for tribal parties
is unknown, discontent with the performance of the religious
parties currently in office may provide tribal leaders with
the chance to successfully compete in provincial elections.
End summary.


2. (C) On July 30 Gray and PRT members attended a gathering
of over 700 provincial tribal leaders hosted by Sheikh Najim
Sayah (Abu Chefat) at his guesthouse in Muthanna (Abu Chefat
is a prominent member of the powerful Albu Hassan tribe.)
The event began with speeches from Abu Chefat, PC Chair Abdul
Hussein al Dhalmi, and Sheikh Abu Baqir. Speakers repeatedly
stressed the dire state of service delivery; "We used to live
under tyranny, but now we live under perpetual darkness,"
said Abu Chefat. Common themes included Muthanna's role as
the birthplace of the 1920 revolt against the British; the
need to recognize the leadership role of sheikhs in Iraqi
society; and the fact that Muthanna was the first province to
transfer to Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC). Following the
meeting, tribal leaders and U.S. officials adjourned for a
lunch and a subsequent discussion. Although vague on
details, the sheikhs stressed the importance of the tribes
and condemned foreign influence in Iraq from Iran and Saudi
Arabia. "We refused to join in Saddam's war with Iran, but
now we hate Iran because of what it is doing to our people,"
said one sheikh.


3. (C) On the margins of the meeting, Sheikh Hakim Khasan,
leader of the Assembly of the Mid-Euphrates, told us that he
had formed an alliance with Sheikh Ali Munshid, leader of the
Sheikhs' Council of Southern Tribes, and Shiekh Abu Risha's
head of the opposition Mutammar Sahwa al-Iraq (MSI),or Iraq
Awakening Conference. He volunteered to arrange a meeting
between himself and other tribal leaders with U.S. officials
in Baghdad. (Note: Over 900 sheikhs attended a July 16
gathering hosted by Hakim Khasan and Ali Munshid - ref 2273).


4. (C) On July 31, Gray and PRT members met with Sheikh Ali
Munshid. "Iraq is different than it was in 2005," Munshid
said, explaining why he believed tribal parties stood to gain
ground in the provincial elections. "There is a saying in
the street, 'We listened to the marja'iyya, and all we
received is blowhards." Munshid added that the tribes were
also gaining support in urban areas, because "people know we
are loyal only to our land - we have no outside interests."
Munshid said that he had worked for the past four years to
build his political party and presented a short pamphlet that
outlined its platform and goals, including: bringing sheikhs,
academics, and technocrats into the political process;
amending the constitution to strengthen Iraqi unity;
combating corruption; increasing employment opportunities,
and working with foreign countries to support Iraq's
political and economic development. Munshid confirmed that
he had formed a political alliance with Hakim Khasan and Abu
Risha, forming a coalition "that stretches from the north to
the south." Munshid dismissed Abu Chefat as a "small sheikh"
who had collaborated with Saddam.


5. (C) Munshid said he had been asked by Sami al-Askari, on
behalf of Prime Minister Maliki, to run as a candidate with
the Da'wa party. "They are looking for people who are not
politicians," Munshid explained (Note: Reporting (refs b and
c) indicates that Da'wa is actively recruiting tribal sheikhs
through the south. End note.) He said that he refused the
request, and sent a letter to Prime Minister Maliki stating
that any delay in the provincial elections was in the
interests of Iran. Munshid added that he had also been
approached by representatives from ISCI. He acknowledged
that successful Iraqi Security Forces operations had
increased public support in the south for PM Maliki, but
doubted that this increase would translate into additional
votes for Da'wa candidates. Munshid dismissed Ibrahim
Ja'afari as a "moron" whose electoral chances would be hurt
by the participation of Sadrist candidates in the National
Reform Trend. He predicted that the south would remain stable
during the elections, but warned "If ISCI loses the election
in the morning, they will issue a fatwa against the Americans
by the afternoon."


6. (C) Comment: The south's tribes are poised to play a

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significant role in the provincial elections. Although the
popular support for tribal parties is unknown they have
several advantages: popular discontent with the religious
parties in office is widespread; parties that include
academics and tribal leaders may be able to appeal to both
rural and urban constituencies; and a Sunni-Shia alliance, if
successful, could position the MSI and its southern allies to
compete on a national level. The fact that the religious
parties are actively recruiting tribal leaders is further
evidence of the importance of the tribal vote. Despite the
reported alliance with SAI, overall the southern tribes are
still fractured, as evidenced by Sheikh Munshid's comments
about his political rival, Sheikh Abu Chefat, and personal
rivalries may well pose the biggest obstacle to tribal
success in the elections. End Comment.
CROCKER