WASIT GOV: PEOPLE WANT CHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002444

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV IR IZ
SUBJECT: WASIT GOV: PEOPLE WANT CHANGE

Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) "People want change," said Wasit Governor Abdel Latif
Turfa in a July 29 conversation with Senior Advisor Gordon
Gray and PRT Team Leader. Although Turfa declined to offer
any prediction over election results, he said the Sadrists
were unpopular, while Prime Minister Maliki had gained Sunni
support due to GOI operations against Shi'a militants. Turfa
said that "American pressure" was necessary to pass the
elections law, but speculated over the benefits of postponing
the elections until 2009. End summary.

People want change
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2. (C) "People want change, the same as is happening in your
country," Turfa said when asked about provincial elections.
He pointed to the 18 nominal independents on the Provincial
Council (PC) as evidence of Wasit's unique political
character but declined to offer any prediction of electoral
results, saying only that "everything could change in the
last hour." Turfa estimated that 50 to 65 percent of
eligible voters would participate in the elections.

Sadrists lost support
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3. (C) Turfa said that the Sadrists had lost much of their
popular support over the past year. "They used to have six
ministers and 28 members in parliament, and what did they
accomplish? I don't think they will get a second chance." A
central weakness of the Sadrists, according to Turfa, is that
the movement is controlled by the Najaf office: "Some members
may want to meet the Americans, but that is prohibited."

Foreign and sectarian tensions
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4. (C) Asked about foreign influence in the elections, Turfa
highlighted Iran's close relationship with ISCI and the
possibility of Sunni interference: "The Sunni countries don't
like the Shi'a religious parties. At the same time, the
Shi'a need to realize that in the Arab world they are a
minority surrounded by a Sunni sea." Turning to sectarian
issues, Turfa said that recent GOI offensives against Shi'a
militants had increased PM Maliki's popularity among Sunnis.
"I recently spoke to the deputy governor of Salah-ah-din,"
Turfa added, "and he said 'If Maliki and I were running on
the same ballot, I would vote for him!" If Iraq's Arabs were
unified, he explained, there would be no debate over the
provincial elections law. Turfa said that he was optimistic
the law would eventually pass due to "American pressure," but
speculated over the benefits of postponing the elections.
"Why not keep elections until 2009?" he asked, "Some
provincial governments are successful."

Good relationship with GOI
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5. (C) Turfa characterized Wasit's relationship with the
central government as "good," pointing to the establishment
of a governors' council by Ali Alaq. However, he added that
"political interests" within the ministries have a negative
impact on provincial development and said he and other
governors wanted more autonomy over investment and financial
management.

Comment
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6. (C) Turfa, like other unpopular southern governors, sees
the advantage (to incumbents) of delaying provincial
elections until the next year. Many contacts share his
assessment of a southern Iraq whose loyalties have nearly
flipped over the last year, with declining Sadrist support
and a growing personality cult centered on Prime Minister
Maliki. End comment.
CROCKER