ELECTION LAW STALLED AS BLOC LEADERS NEGOTIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002422 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: ELECTION LAW STALLED AS BLOC LEADERS NEGOTIATE REF: A. BAGHDAD 2357 ¶B. BAGHDAD 2315 ¶C. BAGHDAD 2305 ¶D. BAGHDAD 2280 Classified By: PolMinCouns Robert Ford for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Late on August 3, the highly anticipated vote in the Council of Representatives (CoR) to resolve the vetoed articles in the Provincial Election Law (PEL) stalled while members awaited instruction from their bloc leaders who were in intense negotiations led by the UN and the U.S. Embassy. Some CoR members stated they would not return the following day for a vote, while others were optimistic there would be quorum and the bill brought to a vote. Following lengthy discussions, we obtained assurances from the Shi'a (UIA) and Kurds that either of two drafts of Article 24 would be acceptable. Sunni bloc leader Ayad Samara'ee said he would take both versions back to his Sunni partners and return in the morning (August 4) with a decision. While an agreement among these three would likely overcome any attempts by the "July 22nd" Bloc (formerly 127 Alliance) to override the July 24 veto (ref B),the situation remains in flux. We continue to work the phones and press our interlocutors to accept compromise language to pass the election law. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The highly anticipated vote on the Provincial Elections Law (PEL) was delayed August 3 while bloc leaders engaged in intense negotiations at the KDP compound, with the Ambassador, POL MinCouns and UNAMI Deputy Special Representative Andrew Gilmour in attendance. Meanwhile, CoR members waited at the CoR cafeteria for word from their bloc leaders on the negotiations, which lasted for more than eight hours. The Ambassador and UNAMI pressed for compromise, leading Shi'a (UIA) and Kurdish leaders to agree to two alternate versions of Article 24. The first uses UNAMI's draft outlining power-sharing agreements, property rights and demographic changes and includes references to Law 13 (Regions Formation) and Law 21 (Provincial Powers),in addition to Article 140. The second draft simply states that elections in Kirkuk will be postponed, with the Kurds, the U.S. and the UN providing assurances that Kirkuk would not join the KRG during the interim period before elections in Kirkuk. During the negotiations, the Arabs insisted that these assurance be explicitly part of the law, to which Masood Barzani replied, "I respect my signature more than any law." The two drafts are now being vetted in Sunni circles (IIP) by Ayad Samara'ee. ¶3. (C) This anti-climactic day was preceded by two long days of intense negotiation led by UNAMI and the Embassy. The sticking point has been how the Kirkuk provincial council will operate while a CoR committee works toward a solution on power-sharing and demographic issues. The Arabs and Turkomen fear the Kurdish-dominated council will unilaterally vote to join the KRG (Note: the resolution passed by the Kirkuk provincial council on July 31 stating its intention to call for a referendum on joining the KRG if an election law is not passed only fueled Arab and Turkomen fears. End Note). At several points negotiations almost broke down as Turkomen representatives angrily accused the U.S. of backing the Kurds. ¶4. (C) There were mixed views in the CoR today, with some members stating they would return tomorrow to vote on the law, and others insisting they would not come back. Most seemed pessimistic about coming to an agreement on the law. A member of the July 22nd bloc accused the U.S. of conspiring with the Kurds. The bloc has approximately 100 seats in the CoR, not enough to override the veto, although some Tawafuq and UIA members voted with them on July 22. Many CoR members requested guarantees that Kirkuk would not become part of KRG. ¶5. (C) Comment: At this stage, the situation continues to be in flux. We are pressing our contacts in the IIP and the newly formed July 22nd Bloc to compromise and accept one of the two drafts of Article 24. UNAMI is also working the phones. Bloc leaders are reconvening August 4 to discuss IIP's position; Embassy and UNAMI will again be present at that meeting, and we will continue to report on developments. End comment. CROCKER