Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BAGHDAD2269
2008-07-21 14:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:
BASRAWI CLERIC HOPES FOR POLITICAL CHANGE
how-toVZCZCXYZ0001 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHGB #2269 2031417 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 211417Z JUL 08 FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8415 INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002269
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: BASRAWI CLERIC HOPES FOR POLITICAL CHANGE
Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002269
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: BASRAWI CLERIC HOPES FOR POLITICAL CHANGE
Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Senior Advisor for Southern Affairs Gordon Gray,
joined by incoming and outgoing REO Directors, met on July 14
with Shi'a cleric and businessman Sayid Abdel Musawi. Musawi
was generally positive about Basrah's future, favorably
comparing its economy to that of its neighbors and
acknowledging the security situation had improved
considerably. "People want change," he said, referring to
Basrah's current political status quo. However, he also
expressed worry that voter disenchantment may lead to low
turnout at the polls. He confirmed that Sadrists would
participate in the provincial elections and identified
several Sadrist-affiliated parties. End summary.
Economy in Decent Shape
--------------
2. (C) Musawi was generally positive about Basrah's economy
and security situation, noting that inflation and wages
compared favorably to neighboring countries and that security
had improved following Operation 'Charge of the Knights.' He
identified the main economic obstacle as a lack of financing
for entrepreneurs, noting that the Central Bank charges 12
percent for loans and private banks can charge as much as 22
percent (Note: The Central Bank lends to other banks, not the
Iraqi public. Although Musawi is wrong about the role of the
Central Bank, he is correct about the scarcity of bank
financing; Iraq's banks generally cannot lend profitably
under present conditions. End Note.) Musawi called the
status of the USD 100 million reconstruction fund "unclear"
and blamed Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs Safa
al-Safi for selecting unqualified contractors and using the
money for political benefit. Given the link between
unemployment and instability, Musawi advocated using the
money to address the immediate need for job creation. "In my
opinion," Musawi said, "we should use the money to create
fake jobs for unemployed workers until they have the
opportunity for real work."
Need for Political Change
--------------
3. (C) "People want change," declared Musawi, "and I hope
for change, because it will lead to stability." Musawi said
his main concern was that the political status quo would
remain in place due to low voter turnout. He said that Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran were supporting various political
candidates. According to Musawi, the Iraqi Islamic Party
(IIP) is backing the 'Group of Learned and Cultured of Iraq,'
while the Sadrists have at least four front groups, including
the 'Revolutionaries of the Shabaniyah Uprising Movement' and
the nationally-registered 'Hizbollah in Iraq Movement.'
Referring to the practice of religious parties that are using
'independent' fronts, Musawi laughed and said "Allah made
three kinds of beings: those that walk on four legs, those
that walk on two, and those that crawl on their stomachs."
SOFA Support Uneven
--------------
4. (C) Musawi said that Basrawis were evenly split over
whether to support a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with
the U.S. He said that people should be educated on the
positive aspects of the SOFA to overcome reluctance rooted in
religious principles.
Islamic Conference Mixed Success
--------------
5. (C) Musawi called the 'First International Annual Islamic
Conference,' held in Basrah from July 14-16, a "small seed"
in the process of reconciling Iraq's various religious
parties. However, he said that individuals linked to Iran
refused to attend the conference, and that holding a
conference next year would only be worthwhile if attendance
increased.
Comment
--------------
6. (C) Although his economic outlook was more positive than
many Iraqis, Musawi's hope for political change echoes the
calls of almost every REO contact. His examples of
'independent' entities linked to the established religious
parties provide yet more evidence that a major challenge
facing Iraqi voters will be determining exactly where their
vote goes. End comment.
CROCKER
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: BASRAWI CLERIC HOPES FOR POLITICAL CHANGE
Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Senior Advisor for Southern Affairs Gordon Gray,
joined by incoming and outgoing REO Directors, met on July 14
with Shi'a cleric and businessman Sayid Abdel Musawi. Musawi
was generally positive about Basrah's future, favorably
comparing its economy to that of its neighbors and
acknowledging the security situation had improved
considerably. "People want change," he said, referring to
Basrah's current political status quo. However, he also
expressed worry that voter disenchantment may lead to low
turnout at the polls. He confirmed that Sadrists would
participate in the provincial elections and identified
several Sadrist-affiliated parties. End summary.
Economy in Decent Shape
--------------
2. (C) Musawi was generally positive about Basrah's economy
and security situation, noting that inflation and wages
compared favorably to neighboring countries and that security
had improved following Operation 'Charge of the Knights.' He
identified the main economic obstacle as a lack of financing
for entrepreneurs, noting that the Central Bank charges 12
percent for loans and private banks can charge as much as 22
percent (Note: The Central Bank lends to other banks, not the
Iraqi public. Although Musawi is wrong about the role of the
Central Bank, he is correct about the scarcity of bank
financing; Iraq's banks generally cannot lend profitably
under present conditions. End Note.) Musawi called the
status of the USD 100 million reconstruction fund "unclear"
and blamed Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs Safa
al-Safi for selecting unqualified contractors and using the
money for political benefit. Given the link between
unemployment and instability, Musawi advocated using the
money to address the immediate need for job creation. "In my
opinion," Musawi said, "we should use the money to create
fake jobs for unemployed workers until they have the
opportunity for real work."
Need for Political Change
--------------
3. (C) "People want change," declared Musawi, "and I hope
for change, because it will lead to stability." Musawi said
his main concern was that the political status quo would
remain in place due to low voter turnout. He said that Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran were supporting various political
candidates. According to Musawi, the Iraqi Islamic Party
(IIP) is backing the 'Group of Learned and Cultured of Iraq,'
while the Sadrists have at least four front groups, including
the 'Revolutionaries of the Shabaniyah Uprising Movement' and
the nationally-registered 'Hizbollah in Iraq Movement.'
Referring to the practice of religious parties that are using
'independent' fronts, Musawi laughed and said "Allah made
three kinds of beings: those that walk on four legs, those
that walk on two, and those that crawl on their stomachs."
SOFA Support Uneven
--------------
4. (C) Musawi said that Basrawis were evenly split over
whether to support a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with
the U.S. He said that people should be educated on the
positive aspects of the SOFA to overcome reluctance rooted in
religious principles.
Islamic Conference Mixed Success
--------------
5. (C) Musawi called the 'First International Annual Islamic
Conference,' held in Basrah from July 14-16, a "small seed"
in the process of reconciling Iraq's various religious
parties. However, he said that individuals linked to Iran
refused to attend the conference, and that holding a
conference next year would only be worthwhile if attendance
increased.
Comment
--------------
6. (C) Although his economic outlook was more positive than
many Iraqis, Musawi's hope for political change echoes the
calls of almost every REO contact. His examples of
'independent' entities linked to the established religious
parties provide yet more evidence that a major challenge
facing Iraqi voters will be determining exactly where their
vote goes. End comment.
CROCKER