BASRAH GOV CRITICAL OF GOI AND SAFA AL-SAFI

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002268 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV IR IZ SUBJECT: BASRAH GOV CRITICAL OF GOI AND SAFA AL-SAFI Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a July 15 meeting with Senior Advisor for Southern Affairs Gordon Gray and incoming and outgoing REO Directors, Basrah Governor Mohammad Musabeh al-Waeli said the security situation had improved since the March 2008 Operation Charge of the Knights (COK). He decried Iranian influence over the upcoming elections but predicted that Iraqi voters would be able to discern the true affiliation of political candidates. Waeli expressed frustration over the alleged misuse of the 100 million USD allocated for reconstruction by the GOI from the provincial budget and blamed PM Maliki and Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs Safa al-Safi for the delays. He concluded that continued central government missteps were an added reason to transform Basrah into a federal region. End summary. ¶2. (C) Describing Basrah's political scene, Waeli said that "many political forces are disappearing, especially those that disrespect the rule of law like Tharallah, Hizbollah, and 15 Shabaan." Waeli explained that in the face of decreasing popular support parties will seek to form coalitions with various social movements. He said that Iranian influence in the elections was coordinated by the Iranian consul and included financial support to clerics and religious parties. Waeli pointed to the 'First International Annual Islamic Conference' as an Iranian-backed effort to encourage religious and social leaders to develop into coalitions favorable to Iranian interests. Waeli said that educating voters about provincial candidates was the best way to counter this influence. According to Waeli, Iraq's other neighbors are not playing a large role in the elections, although the UAE is supporting Mohamed Tamimi and Tawfiq Abadi. Overall, Waeli predicted that Basrawis would identify and reject the religious parties and that the parties would not do well in elections. Asked what local issues would feature in the election, Waeli identified service delivery, especially electricity, and job creation. He estimated the unemployment in Basrah as around "20 percent" which he said "was not bad" when compared to neighboring governorates. ¶3. (C) Asked about the status of the 100 million USD allocated by the GOI for reconstruction, Waeli sighed and said "Safa al-Safi controls everything...I don't know." Elaborating, he said that Safi had "political goals" for the disbursement of the funds and had made his cousin Tariq responsible for awarding project grants to contractors. Laughing, Waeli said that "according to my friend, Maliki was tired of Safa and so he gave him 100 million and sent him to Basrah to get him out of Baghdad." Until now, Waeli said the only tangible results from the 100 million USD were some cleaning of water and sewage channels, and he predicted that "taking the money as a loan from the provincial government was illegal, there are many violations that occurred with money, and the investigative and integrity commissions will eventually expose this." He said Basrawis blamed the central government for the reconstruction delays, although "some political parties are trying to shift the blame to the provincial government." Regardless, Waeli said that 100 million USD would have little impact on a city of 3 million people. ¶4. (C) Waeli concluded the meeting with an appeal for transforming Basrah into a region, saying that "all of the past mistakes of the central government show why we need to make Basrah a region." Continuing, he said "we give the central government billions every year from customs alone; Basrah has other sources of income besides oil." ¶5. (C) Comment: Although Waeli has long had a contentious relationship with PM Maliki and the central government, his criticism over Safi's handling of the reconstruction fund is echoed by many contacts. However, many ordinary Basrawis hold the provincial government and the governor in contempt and, following the success of Charge of the Knights, seem willing to give the central government more time to produce results. Left unanswered in the conversation was whether and how the declining fortunes of the religious parties will impact the electoral chances of Waeli's Fadilah party. End comment. CROCKER