BASRAH GOV CRITICAL OF GOI AND SAFA AL-SAFI

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002268

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV IR IZ
SUBJECT: BASRAH GOV CRITICAL OF GOI AND SAFA AL-SAFI

Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a July 15 meeting with Senior Advisor
for Southern Affairs Gordon Gray and incoming and outgoing
REO Directors, Basrah Governor Mohammad Musabeh al-Waeli said
the security situation had improved since the March 2008
Operation Charge of the Knights (COK). He decried Iranian
influence over the upcoming elections but predicted that
Iraqi voters would be able to discern the true affiliation of
political candidates. Waeli expressed frustration over the
alleged misuse of the 100 million USD allocated for
reconstruction by the GOI from the provincial budget and
blamed PM Maliki and Minister of State for Parliamentary
Affairs Safa al-Safi for the delays. He concluded that
continued central government missteps were an added reason to
transform Basrah into a federal region. End summary.


2. (C) Describing Basrah's political scene, Waeli said that
"many political forces are disappearing, especially those
that disrespect the rule of law like Tharallah, Hizbollah,
and 15 Shabaan." Waeli explained that in the face of
decreasing popular support parties will seek to form
coalitions with various social movements. He said that
Iranian influence in the elections was coordinated by the
Iranian consul and included financial support to clerics and
religious parties. Waeli pointed to the 'First International
Annual Islamic Conference' as an Iranian-backed effort to
encourage religious and social leaders to develop into
coalitions favorable to Iranian interests. Waeli said that
educating voters about provincial candidates was the best way
to counter this influence. According to Waeli, Iraq's other
neighbors are not playing a large role in the elections,
although the UAE is supporting Mohamed Tamimi and Tawfiq
Abadi. Overall, Waeli predicted that Basrawis would identify
and reject the religious parties and that the parties would
not do well in elections. Asked what local issues would
feature in the election, Waeli identified service delivery,
especially electricity, and job creation. He estimated the
unemployment in Basrah as around "20 percent" which he said
"was not bad" when compared to neighboring governorates.


3. (C) Asked about the status of the 100 million USD
allocated by the GOI for reconstruction, Waeli sighed and
said "Safa al-Safi controls everything...I don't know."
Elaborating, he said that Safi had "political goals" for the
disbursement of the funds and had made his cousin Tariq
responsible for awarding project grants to contractors.
Laughing, Waeli said that "according to my friend, Maliki was
tired of Safa and so he gave him 100 million and sent him to
Basrah to get him out of Baghdad." Until now, Waeli said the
only tangible results from the 100 million USD were some
cleaning of water and sewage channels, and he predicted that
"taking the money as a loan from the provincial government
was illegal, there are many violations that occurred with
money, and the investigative and integrity commissions will
eventually expose this." He said Basrawis blamed the central
government for the reconstruction delays, although "some
political parties are trying to shift the blame to the
provincial government." Regardless, Waeli said that 100
million USD would have little impact on a city of 3 million
people.


4. (C) Waeli concluded the meeting with an appeal for
transforming Basrah into a region, saying that "all of the
past mistakes of the central government show why we need to
make Basrah a region." Continuing, he said "we give the
central government billions every year from customs alone;
Basrah has other sources of income besides oil."


5. (C) Comment: Although Waeli has long had a contentious
relationship with PM Maliki and the central government, his
criticism over Safi's handling of the reconstruction fund is
echoed by many contacts. However, many ordinary Basrawis
hold the provincial government and the governor in contempt
and, following the success of Charge of the Knights, seem
willing to give the central government more time to produce
results. Left unanswered in the conversation was whether and
how the declining fortunes of the religious parties will
impact the electoral chances of Waeli's Fadilah party. End
comment.
CROCKER