VP ADEL ON BUDGET, NEW CABINET, SECURITY, REGIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000224

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: VP ADEL ON BUDGET, NEW CABINET, SECURITY, REGIONS,
AND LTSR

REF: A. BAGHDAD 178 (ATTACK ON RUBAIE)

B. 07 BAGHDAD 4048 (JAM FREEZE UPDATE)

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Vice President Adel Abdel Mehdi told the
Ambassador January 24 that Prime Minister Maliki continues to
obstruct passage of the 2008 GOI budget, but it is unlikely
that the budget would need to be submitted for an additional,
time-consuming cabinet vote prior to final parliamentary
consideration. Adel said that Maliki was still mulling over
a possible cabinet shuffle and had not yet decided whether
his revamped government would have 17 or 21 ministerial
posts. He expressed concern over a January 19 attack on NSA
Rubaie and requested consultations with the Mission and
Coalition Forces to address a possible resurgence of Sadrist
militia violence. Acknowledging that legislative debate over
a draft Provincial Powers bill turns on the issue of
appointment/dismissal of provincial governors, Adel declared
that the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) continues to
believe that federalism is appropriate for Iraq and will
continue to seek formation of a nine-province southern region
in a "wise" and non-divisive manner. Echoing concerns raised
by ISCI chief Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, Adel said that problems
within Iraq's electoral commission must be resolved in
advance of provincial elections. Noting that the Sadrists
had left the GOI Political Committee in advance of internal
GOI preparation for bilateral long-term security
negotiations, Adel said S/I Satterfield's recent comments to
the Arab media about such negotiations were helpful. End
Summary.

Budget Doldrums
--------------


2. (C) After receiving a telephonic budget situation report
in our presence from GOI Finance Minister Bayan Jabr (who,
like Adel, is a senior ISCI official),the Vice President
said Maliki is exerting "negative pressure" on the Council of
Representatives (CoR) to delay budget passage and that Maliki
is using budget delay as a tool in his ongoing dispute with
the Kurds. Adel said there is no real CoR opposition to the
proposed budget, and that it appears Jabr will be able to
prevent the draft budget from being re-submitted to the full
cabinet for deliberation and a vote, a move that would only
lead to further delay. Stating that the lengthy absence of
Deputy PM Barham Saleh is badly hampering the budget process
(Barham is not expected back to Baghdad until February 4),
Adel said the bottom line is that Maliki must decide whether
he wants a budget or not. The Ambassador urged rapid
closure, emphasizing that the votes are there now for CoR
passage.

New Cabinet, New Flag
--------------


3. (C) Adel characterized his January 23 "Executive Council"
meeting with Maliki, Talabani, and Hashemi as "very positive
on the surface (septel readout from Talabani). The leaders
said the right things and had the right attitude" but he
warned that time will tell if this cooperative spirit
continues. He said that he had urged Maliki to move quickly
to re-constitute his cabinet in a manner that would bring
Tawafuq back into the fold, formally renew Maliki's PM
position, remove poor performers, and improve GOI efficiency,
noting that such a move would send a positive signal to the
Iraqi public and facilitate political progress on various
fronts. Adel claimed Maliki is still grappling with the
issue of cabinet size (17 or 21 ministers) and a proper
tactical approach. Adel said senior Dawa and ISCI officials
were meeting to address these issues.


4. (C) The Ambassador thanked Adel for weighing in with
Hashemi to overcome the latter's quibbles with the
recently-passed De-Baathification law. Adel cautioned that
he was taking a wait-and-see approach to Hashemi's stated
intention to not block the law. Adel also stated Hashemi had
told him that he was unenthusiastic about the new Iraq flag
but that a majority of Iraq Islamic Party (IIP) CoR members
voted in favor of the new design. Adel said the decision was
a good compromise and put a final end to the era of Arab
nationalism and Baathism. The Ambassador noted the
importance that Iraq's Arab neighbors not view this
development as a repudiation of Iraq's Arab nature and said
IIP support would help in this regard.

Resurgent or Reduced JAM?
--------------


5. (C) The Ambassador praised the Iraqi Security Forces for
their performance in helping to ensure a calm Ashura Shia
religious festival in most of Iraq and in effectively dealing

BAGHDAD 00000224 002 OF 002


with Ashura-related clashes in Basrah and Nasariyyah. Adel
agreed that the performance reflected growing capacity but
lamented that "we lost some good men last week." He said the
security situation in Basrah was improving, but the reported
January 19 attack by Jaysh al-Mehdi (JAM) elements on NSA
Muwafaq Rubaie as he prayed at a mosque in a JAM-controlled
Baghdad neighborhood raised many questions and concerns about
Baghdad security and a possible resurgence of JAM operations
(Ref A). Speculating that the absence of a visible JAM
public presence in last week's Ashura processions could
signal either a sign of JAM weakness or reorganization, Adel
and the Ambassador agreed to consult closely with Coalition
Forces to address the possibility of renewed JAM violence in
Baghdad. Adel pointed out that President Talabani was
helping to organize an upcoming conference of Adnan
Shahmani's "National Gathering," a group that has broken with
the Sadrist Trend (Ref B) that Adel characterized as
comprised of intellectuals devoted to the ideas of Muhammad
Sadiq al-Sadr, Moqtada's late father.

Provincial Powers, Regions, Elections
--------------


6. (C) Adel warned that unnamed sources (read Maliki) are
trying to "manipulate" the draft Provincial Powers bill to
reintroduce centralized rule, and that the critical issue is
ensuring a degree of provincial independence consistent with
Iraq's constitution. Agreeing with the Ambassador's view
that democratic experience shows that governors are best
elected by their constituents and not appointed by an
executive, Adel said the notion that the PM can appoint and
dismiss governors violates the constitution. He said ISCI
continues to believe that federalism is Iraq's only
appropriate model and that the current system "has no
future." He predicted that, over time, Sunnis would begin to
understand that federalism is also in their interests since
strong local governments can contribute to a strong federal
government.


7. (C) Asserting that ISCI intends to pursue formation of a
nine-province southern region after the GOI region formation
law takes effect in April, he vowed that ISCI would act
"wisely" and in a spirit of compromise to achieve this goal
in a peaceful and non-divisive manner accepted by Iraqis and
Iraq's neighbors. Adel continued that, although all UIA
parties had previously signed onto the nine-province region
approach, there was now opposition within the Shia camp:
Fadhila agrees with the concept but feels the time is not
right; the Sadrists think the "occupation" must end before
moving ahead on region formation; and Dawa fears that the
plan will allow ISCI to dominate the entire south.


8. (C) Turning to provincial elections, Adel echoed the
oft-stated concerns of ISCI boss Hakim about the true
independence of the Independent High Electoral Commission
(IHEC) and said the IHEC issue must be resolved prior to
elections. The Ambassador related that UNAMI Chief De
Mistura had told him that UNAMI assessed the situation
differently and believes that free and fair polling can be
conducted. He urged Adel to talk to UNAMI. Adel replied he
had heard a contrary assessment from former UNAMI deputy von
der Schulenburg, but said he would speak to UNAMI.

LSTR
--------------


8. (C) The Vice President noted the Sadrists had left the GOI
Political Committee in advance of internal GOI preparation
for bilateral long-term strategic relationship (LTSR)
negotiations in order to distance the Trend from any
association with the process. Adel said S/I Satterfield's
recent interview with "al-Sharq al-Awsat" newspaper about
such negotiations was helpful as it dispelled the notion that
the USG sought permanent military bases in Iraq. He said
Talabani would chair an upcoming meeting to reviews GOI LTSR
preparations.
CROCKER