JULY 7 PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS UPDATE: NO SOLUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002106 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: JULY 7 PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS UPDATE: NO SOLUTION YET TO KIRKUK ISSUE REF: BAGHDAD 2079 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller, for reasons 1.4(b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Speaker Mashadani's "small group" of Arab, Turcoman and Kurdish CoR members has not reached agreement; it may ask for more time. Mashadani has announced his intention to force a CoR vote on July 15. The Turcoman position appears to have evolved to accepting either "32-32-32-4" or a modified version of UNAMI's latest proposal. It is unclear to what extent the small group members can speak for their blocs. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On July 6, poloff met with two of the four members of the small group established by Council of Representatives (CoR) speaker Mashadani with the purpose of negotiating a solution to the Kirkuk problem of the provincial elections law (reftels). ¶3. (C) According to Mohammed Tamin (Arab Sunni; Iraqi National Dialogue Front),the group had not yet reached a solution. Its members will submit a request to the CoR presidency council to extend its deadline (note: Speaker Mashadani, when he established the group, gave it until July 6 to reach a decision). Tamin says he supports the "32-32-32-4" formula and argues that elections in Kirkuk should take place at the same time as other provincial elections. Tamin, though, said that the members of the small group were chosen for their moderation. Consequently, it was not clear that, even if they reached a solution among themselves, they could sell it to their larger blocs. He accused the Kurds of intransigence, partly because they knew they could rely on American support. He encouraged U.S. pressure on the Kurdish bloc. Poloff replied that all blocs could expect American pressure to conclude an elections law, since we view timely provincial elections as an important step in Iraq's political development. ¶4. (C) Abbas Al-Bayati (UIA; independent Shi'a Turcoman) also blamed American support for the Kurds as increasing their stubbornness. He said that he now supported a modified version of the earlier Turcoman position. Members should choose one of two alternatives: either "32-32-32-4" or UNAMI SRSG de Mistura's July 2 proposal (listing several events, any of which would clear the way for elections in Kirkuk) with the following amendments -- no specific mention of Article 140 (instead, the condition would be along the lines of "once the issue of Kirkuk has been settled") and a stipulation that the provincial powers law would apply only to a newly elected Kirkuk provincial council, not the present one. ¶5. (SBU) On July 7, just before the CoR adjourned for its regularly scheduled week-long recess, Mashadani confirmed from the chair that the small group had not reached a solution on Kirkuk. Consequently, Mashadani said, he would bring the bill to the CoR for a vote option-by-option on July 15, the first day of the CoR's next session. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) It does not appear that Mashadani's small group has done any better than earlier attempts to resolve differences over Kirkuk. If Mashadani carries out his threat to bring the elections law to the floor without agreement, however, members can easily deny him a quorum for a vote. We will stay in touch with CoR leaders during the upcoming break to encourage ongoing efforts to resolve the impasse over Kirkuk. CROCKER