DPM TO AMBASSADOR: "THERE IS NO POLITICAL WILL"

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000021 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2018 TAGS: ECON ETRD EFIN PREL MARR ENRG MOPS NBTS IZ SUBJECT: DPM TO AMBASSADOR: "THERE IS NO POLITICAL WILL" REF: BAGHDAD 00003 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary. Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih spiced a 30 December meeting with Ambassador and CG Petraeus with complaints that his colleagues in government lacked the political will needed to steer the country away from civil war in 2008. He avoided being drawn into any constructive discussion of trying to launch the New Year with an ambitious legislative agenda. However, he did commit to make personal efforts necessary to address pressing problems of the removal of radioactive materials from Tuwaitha, conduct his own anti-corruption conference, and resolve problems of Turkish electricity supplies to Dohuk province. End Summary. "Making Government Work" -------------- ¶2. (S) Ambassador Crocker met with DPM -- and Acting Prime Minister -- Barham Salih on December 30, accompanied by CG Petraeus, EMIN, and DCG LtGen Rollo. Ambassador and CG sought to encourage the DPM to embrace a wide-ranging effort to start 2008 as the Year of Making Government Work. He hoped that, upon the return of President Talabani to Baghdad from holiday in Sulaymaniyah (2 or 3 January, per DPM),and the PM from medical tests in London (date unknown),a quorum could quickly be achieved in Councils of Ministers and Representatives (CoM and CoR, respecitvely). Ambassador stressed that that it would be imperative for the GoI to prove itself able of conducting the business of the country, in drafting and passing urgent legislation, pushing services out to the people, taking control of the country's security, re-energizing the Legislative Preparatory Committee -- A Year for Iraqi Institutions. ¶3. (S) DPM responded that 2008 would either be the Year of Success, or the Year of Disaster, if Iraq squanders the gains made in security. "If there is no political will, the Legislative Preparatory Committee is a waste of time -- and there is no political will." Ambassador asked him what he saw as the alternative. DPM responded, "The issue is political will. We can go through the motions, put check marks in boxes, but that will all be window-dressing." Ambassador expressed the hope that smart people in positions of influence do recognize what's at stake, and that the DPM was not throwing up his hands in surrender, to which the DPM �00A;replied only "I've made clear my opinion ..." The CG suggested that passage of legislation on accountability, the justice system, and budget would be needed within days, not weeks. The DPM offered that the amnesty law is in draft, and the budget well along, but expressed little enthusiasm for "the other stuff, like the oil law." SOFA and Other Priority Issues -------------- ¶4. (S) Ambassador brought up the subject of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) security portion of the Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA). He noted that Iraq has only one more year in special status under the UNSCR and encouraged the DPM to find a way to get down to serious business on the SFA, stressing that getting the right people in the room from the beginning would be critical. The DPM agreed, emphasizing that those involved must have to have full authority to negotiate. Ambassador pointed to the problems of services, of unemployment, and of the situation in Basra, and suggested that the DPM search for ways to drain some of the animosity out of the political climate. Ambassador said he would push hard, as leaders returned, for the different parties to return to the project of governing, and stressed the importance of the first meeting of political leaders not "imploding." DPM responded that he hoped it would be possible to bring up the SFA in the first week in which the President, PM, and CoR are all in Baghdad. He then stated, "We could have a real civil war if we don't get the politics right. This won't be a conflict with Al Qaeda -- this will be civil war." National Investment Law and Commission -------------- ¶5. (S) Ambassador noted that the new nominee for head of the National Investment Commission appeared to be on track for eventual confirmation. DPM said he was not acquainted with the nominee, having met him only once, but had heard both good and indifferent things about him. "Some say, he's worked only for government his whole professional life -- how can he promote private investment?" he wondered. He stated that, even without formal CoR confirmation, the Investment Commission Head nominee could begin work. Ambassador urged BAGHDAD 00000021 002 OF 002 that the CoR move quickly to confirm, nonetheless. Anti-Corruption Conference -------------- ¶6. (S) DPM confirmed that, despite the absence of the PM, he intended to keep to the scheduled January 3, 2008 date for the GoI's anti-corruption conference, which he intended to use to establish unambiguous procedures through which to confront the problem in Iraq. Dohuk Electricity Cut-Off Threat -------------- ¶7. (S) DPM stated that the CoM had approved the same day (30 December) renewal of the electricity delivery contract with Turkey, under same terms, for the next six months. He said payment of the existing $20 mn float charge (referred to as "arrears") will be made, and that this should resolve for the immediate term the crisis in Dohuk. Tuwaitha Radioactive Materials Shipment -------------- ¶8. (S) Ambassador thanked the DPM for efforts to push removal of irradiators and yellow cake uranium materials from Iraq within the next days. DPM sought verification that of actions immediately required: Ministry of Foreign Affairs notification to IAEA of intention to break seals; GoI instructions to the Iraqi Facilities Protection Force to allow the 90-plus member technical team access to specific buildings on the Tuwaitha site to pack the materials for shipment; and formal GoI authorization for all pertinent materials to be removed from the site and the country. He promised to push the process forward. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (S) DPM Barham Salih seemed particularly glum in the meeting, countering most suggestions for the need for energetic efforts to bring true governance to Iraq with dire predictions of civil war generated by rivalries and the absence of political will to do right by the country. This may have been connected to his expressed lack of joy at being Acting Prime Minister while the PM addressed his medical concerns -- an event that interrupted his plans to pass the New Year in Sulaymaniyah with his immediate family, forcing him to decamp to Baghdad. END COMMENT. CROCKER