MAIN SUNNI BLOC INCHES CLOSER TO DEAL TO RETURN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002032 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2023 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: MAIN SUNNI BLOC INCHES CLOSER TO DEAL TO RETURN MINISTERS TO GOVERNMENT REF: BAGHDAD 2013 Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (c) ¶1. (C) Government spokesman Ali Dabbagh on June 30 announced that PM Maliki and VP Hashimi worked out a compromise deal to return the Tawafuq Front - the main Sunni Arab bloc in Parliament - to its cabinet seats. A list of cabinet nominees was reportedly agreed to by the two leaders, including a replacement Deputy Prime Minister and six other names to replace (and expand) the porfolios that the Front abandoned on August 1, 2007. ¶2. (C) Political Advisor to VP Hashimi, Saifeldin AbdelRahman, confirmed to Poloff on June 30 the general outline of GOI Spokesman Dabbagh's statement, cautioning that the deal was not yet final. Maliki and Hashimi, he said, met privately on the evening of June 29 to discuss the issue, and agreed in principle to conclude the issue and return Tawafuq to government. AbdelRahman said that the Vice President would likely make additional comments on the subject following his return from Jordan (July 1-3) where he was to attend a two-day Iraq-Japan friendship ceremony. The VP's Advisor was uncertain how the issue of the Ministry of Planning, the main stumbling block to resolution, had been resolved - if at all. ¶3. (SBU) GOI Spokesman Dabbagh told PAO on June 30 that the Tawafuq nominations would not be made public, pending Parliamentary confirmation, but that the nominations would be part of a "package" of nominations that would include four names to fill seats vacated by Sadrist ministers last year. According to Dabbagh and other CoR contacts, Tawafuq's nominees are as follows: Proposed cabinet nominees agreed by the PM: - Deputy Prime Minister: Rafie el-Essawi, IIP member. - Minister of Higher Education: Abd Dhiyab al-Ajili (previous Min Higher Ed),nominated by Khallaf Allyan. - Minister of Culture: Maher Dalli, Professor of Arabic, Dean of College in Anbar, nominated by Adnan Dulaymi. - Minister of State for Women's Affairs: Nawal al-Samaraie, nominated by Adnan Dulaymi. - Minister of State for Foreign Affairs: Dr. Mohamed Menajid, a relative of Khallaf Allyan, a university professor specializing in agricultural sciences. - Minister of Communications or Justice: Dr. Faruq Abdel Rahman, an advisor to the PM, independent, though agreed to by Hashimi, Dulaymi, and Allyan. Not clear whether Kurds will agree to Tawafuq taking Justice. - Minister of Planning: Ali Baban remains for time being. Tawafuq Spokesman Salim Jaboori tells us that Maliki agreed that Baban would be "let go" some time in the future, to be replaced by another Tawafuq nominee. ¶4. (C) According to Tawafuq Spokesman Salim al-Jaboori, the list of names will be delivered by the Council of Ministers directly to the CoR Presidency Council "by this Saturday." The CoR Presidency will determine when the nominations will be put to a vote, once members have had a chance to review the candidates' CV's. Jaboori did not expect there to be any problems with the confirmations, though he noted that CoR opposition groups might attempt to block agreement. An IIP senior CoR member also confirmed the outline of the deal described above, noting that the cabinet confirmations would be followed by additional negotiations in the near future on ministerial deputies, senior advisors, and Ambassadors. ¶5. (C) Comment: While this is certainly a positive step toward returning Sunnis to government, it would be wise to keep the champagne corked until Parliament vets and approves the cabinet nominees. Speaker Mashadani told the Ambassador on June 29 that the real struggle to return Tawafuq ministers to the government would take place in the Council of Representatives. And it remains to be seen whether these individuals, once installed in their ministries, will be capable of effectively delivering services to the Iraqi people, or even managing the institutions that they may soon be in charge of. (Tawafuq ministers did not distinguish themselves before the bloc's August 2007 withdrawal from the Cabinet.) We can expect that Tawafuq and its constituent parties will focus on using their ministerial positions and authorities to position themselves as best they can ahead of provincial elections. Nevertheless, having Sunnis back in government will be symbolically important for the Arab neighbors and should be emphasized in our conversations in regional capitals. We should also press Hashimi to fulfil his earlier promise to tour the region to tout the need for regional support to Maliki and his government. End comment. CROCKER