FADHILA PARTY BOSS SOUNDS OFF ON MALIKI,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000194

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: FADHILA PARTY BOSS SOUNDS OFF ON MALIKI,
FEDERALISM, AND THE MARJA'IYYAH

REF: A. BAGHDAD 107 (NATIONAL PROJECT)

B. BASRAH 002 (BASRAH REGION)

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Shia Fadhila Party legislative bloc leader
Hassan al-Shammari told the Ambassador January 22 that the
recently-passed De-Baathification Law and prospective passage
of a draft Provincial Powers bill are "false victories" and
should not be mistaken for signs of political progress.
Displaying the maverick spirit that led his party to break
away from the Shia United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) and run afoul
of the Maliki government, Shammari criticized the Prime
Minister for his non-inclusive style; claimed the GOI is
unable to account for USD 1.5 billion earmarked for
investment spending; decried sectarian-based politics and
urged the USG to support secular liberals; asserted that the
Najaf-based Marja'iyyah no longer hold sway over the Shia
masses; warned that Iraq is not ready for federalism; and
predicted that formation of a Shia-based region or regions in
south-central Iraq would only increase Iranian influence,
which is already strong. End Summary.

Bleak Political Landscape
--------------


2. (C) Fadhila Party CoR bloc leader Hassan al-Shammari and
his deputy, Bassim al-Sharif, were decidedly downbeat in
their assessment of Iraq's current political situation.
While Fadhila sees "true political participation" of all
parties in the GOI as the only way forward, Maliki continues
to rule in a non-inclusive manner and Shammari has all but
given up hope that Maliki will include a Fadhila member in a
re-shuffled cabinet. On the contrary, Shammari asserted that
Maliki seems intent on "punishing" Fadhila for withdrawing
its 15-member CoR bloc from the UIA last year and he confided
that he has heard from "international community" sources that
he and Basrah Governor Waeli, a senior Fadhila Party member,
may be in physical danger. He said Maliki and the GOI can
take absolutely no credit for Iraq's improving security
situation, which is attributable only to Coalition Forces,
"Awakening" movements, and Moqtada al-Sadr's "freeze" on JAM
operations. Shammari said he had not met with Maliki since
the latter's return to Iraq after undergoing medical
treatment in London.


3. (C) The glib 45-year old lawyer characterized the ruling
"Group of Four" alliance between ISCI, Dawa, and the two
leading Kurdish parties as a "failure," and says he advised
President Talabani and Vice President Hashemi to include
other parties in their "Group of Three" alliance between the
two leading Kurdish parties and the Sunni IIP. He was
unenthusiastic about the fledgling "National Project"
coalition (Ref A),alleging that it played to ethno-sectarian
divisions and was supported by unnamed "external forces." He
encouraged greater USG support for "liberal" political groups
and parties because they enjoy greater public support than
other parties, and cited as evidence the fact that Ayad
Allawi's Iraqiyyah Party won 25 CoR seats in 2005 even though
the party was openly opposed by the Shia Marja'iyyah.


Sour Views on Key Legislation
--------------


4. (C) In a previous meeting on January 10, Shammari told
Poloff that his party had taken a "strategic decision" to
prevent Maliki from achieving any sort of political success
until he shuffles his cabinet to include Fadhila cadres,
adding that Fadhila will try to prevent a quorum for a vote
on any significant bill (possible exception is 2008 budget)
and will vote against any bill that comes to a vote, even
though they were not successful in blocking the
De-Baathification law. In his meeting with the Ambassador,
Shammari said the party does not want to be an "obstacle" for
Maliki but the PM must rule in a more democratic fashion. He
stated that the recently-passed De-Baathification Law and
prospective passage of a draft Provincial Powers bill are
"false victories" and should not e mistaken for signs of
political progress. Fadhila Deputy bloc leader Bassim chimed
in that the De-Baathification Law created more problems than
it solved because it bars key personnel from employment at
several vital GOI Ministries. Regarding ongoing CoR
deliberation over the 2008 GOI budget, Bassim noted with a
wry grin that the Ministry of Finance has been unable to
provide a clear accounting for USD 1.5 billion earmarked for
2007 investment spending.


5. (C) In reply to the Ambassador's urging of rapid CoR
action on a Provincial Powers law, Shammari said he took a
dim view of the current draft bill on the grounds that it
does not set forth a specific date for provincial elections.

BAGHDAD 00000194 002 OF 002


In Fadhila's view, the absence of a fixed date will all but
guarantee that such elections will not be held this year.
Fadhila wants provincial elections to be held before the end
of April: Shammari said his party favors an "open list"
system but anticipates that the Najaf-based Marja'iyyah will
oppose "open lists." He opined that the GOI is not serious
about conducting elections. In a previous January 10
meeting, Shammari predicted that Fadhila, the Sadrists, and
Shia independents will split the vote in the southern and
central Shia-majority provinces, exposing ISCI and Dawa as
parties without a popular base. Shammari and Bassim were
noncommittal in response to the Ambassador's suggestion that
the CoR forego a planned February recess and stay in session.


Federalism, Meddlesome Neighbors, Marja'iyyah
--------------


6. (C) After the Ambassador asked about Fadhila views on a
proposal floated in the "Washington Post" by National
Security Advisor Muwafaq al-Rubaie that called for five
regions, two of which would be located in Shia-majority
areas, Shammari said that federalism is a good concept but
inappropriate for Iraq at the present time. He predicted
that a Shia-dominated region or regions would only strengthen
Iran's already significant influence in the south and center,
lead to conflict between Iraq's Arab neighbors and Iran, and
isolate such regions from the Arab and international
communities. (We note that Shammari's stated view on region
formation is at odds with fellow Fadhila cohort Waeli's
declared intention to move forward on forming a Basrah region
(Ref B)).


7. (C) Shammari agreed with the Ambassador's observation that
Arab neighbors appear to erroneously believe that Iraq's Shia
are somehow beholden to Iran and that Arab states should have
a greater presence here in order to counter Iranian
influence. In line with the Fadhila Party's belief that it
-- and not the Sadrist Trend -- is the rightful heir to the
teachings and orientation of Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr
(Moqtada's late father),Shammari stated that the elder Sadr
always emphasized the proud Arab identity of Iraq's Shia
community and single-handedly ended a Persian tradition
whereby Shia masses kiss the hand of senior religious
clerics. In addition to the above-cited examples of
Shammari's negative perception of the Najaf-based
Marja'iyyah, he asserted that the international community
should recognize that the "traditional" Marja'iyyah no longer
hold sway over the Shia masses who do not revere them as
saints, and should look instead to other senior Shia clerics
of influence. (We note that while Shammari did not mention
any such cleric by name, he may have been referring to
Fadhila spiritual head Ayatollah Muhammad al-Yaqoubi).
CROCKER