WASIT IHEC LEADER PREDICTS ELECTIONS IN 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000190

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: WASIT IHEC LEADER PREDICTS ELECTIONS IN 2008

Classified By: Wasit PRT Team Leader Wade Weems. Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. In a January 23 meeting with Wasit PRT Team
Leader and Poloffs, Wasit Director of the Independent High
Electoral Commission (IHEC) Haydar Abd Allawi said he
expected elections to happen in 2008 and expressed a strong
preference for an open-list system. He maintained his office
could be ready for elections with as little as two months'
notice despite challenges related to security and voter
education. Although reluctant to discuss politics, Haydar's
comments made it clear there is widespread public
dissatisfaction with the current provincial and national
governments. End Summary.

Details on the election process
--------------


2. (C) Haydar mentioned recent media reporting on progress
with the provincial powers and elections law and said he
hoped the Council of Representatives (COR) passed the law
soon. He expected elections to happen sometime in 2008 and
maintained that everyone in government and public wanted an
open-list system. Haydar added that an open-list system was
best because "The Iraqi people need an open and simple
system." When asked if an open-list system would take power
away from the political parties and if candidates capable of
competing individually existed in Wasit, Haydar answered "I
have only one thing to say about the open list: It is the one
way for Iraq to pass from the darkness of tyranny into the
light."


3. (C) Haydar preferred to focus on the technical details of
provincial elections. Registration will require two forms of
identification, including a ration card, passport, national
ID, or marriage passport. The IHEC will establish seven
sub-offices in Kut and fifteen throughout the governorate.
Each office will be staffed by twelve workers. On election
day, voters must cast their ballot in their resident
political district. Sub-offices will generate rolls and
voters will be checked off the rolls as they arrive at
polling places. Despite the amount of work involved, Haydar
maintained that his office could be ready for elections with
as little as two months' notice. Haydar said widespread
public dissatisfaction meant that either no one would vote
out of disenchantment with the democratic process or everyone
would vote to completely change the current government.


4. (C) Asked about challenges facing his office, Haydar
identified security concerns and voter education. On
security, he mentioned the possibility of checkpoints and
curfews preventing rural voters from voting as well as the
need for metal-detector wands, T-walls, and razor wire to
secure polling places. On voter education, Haydar pointed to
voter illiteracy as the greatest challenge and discussed the
possibility of assigning a symbol to each party or individual
candidate. He maintained that the government needed
authorization to regulate the behavior and message of the
media during elections.

Central government a new Saddam
--------------


5. (C) Haydar resisted attempts to turn the conversation to
politics, repeatedly saying that he was a technical
specialist and not a politician. When pressed, he said that
the central government pressured the provinces in a manner
reminiscent of the Saddam regime and said, "Give us one
national minister, or one deputy minister, or at least one
director general from Wasit." Haydar said this frustration
led people to consider decentralization or regions formation,
even though "Iraqi democracy is still in its adolescence, and
many people are scared of the concept of regions." Haydar
expressed concern that militias would react violently to
unfavorable election results. Asked if militias were
currently pressuring IHEC, he said no, then added, "Iraq is
like any country, it has good qualities and bad qualities.
Look at what is happening right now in Kenya."

Cooperation with PRT
--------------


6. (C) Haydar agreed to provide the PRT with a list of local
civil society organizations capable of working on voter
outreach and education projects. He asked the PRT for
assistance for his office, including the procurement of an
office vehicle.

Comment: Will discontent lead to change?
--------------

7. (C) Comment: Haydar's remarks echo similar comments from
contacts throughout the south on public dissatisfaction with
the current government. It remains to be seen whether this
discontent will translate into real political change, and

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Haydar was extremely reluctant to discuss the structural and
political obstacles to real reform. His comments also make
it clear that militia intimidation and voter manipulation
will pose serious threats to the integrity of the voting
process. End Comment.


CROCKER