TURKISH SPECIAL ENVOY UPDATES S/I SATTERFIELD ON

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001772 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV TU IZ SUBJECT: TURKISH SPECIAL ENVOY UPDATES S/I SATTERFIELD ON PM ERDOGAN VISIT, KIRKUK, AND PLANS FOR TURKISH CONSULATE IN BASRA; UNDERLINES TURKEY WANTS TO DO MORE TO ASSIST U.S. REF: (A) BAGHDAD 1726 (B) BAGHDAD 1723 AND PREVIOUS (C) ANKARA 971 Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (S) Summary: During a June 9 meeting, Turkish Special Envoy Murat Ozcelik provided S/I Satterfield with an update on the state of play of issues discussed ref A, following Ozcelik's meetings in Baghdad over the past several days. Overall, Ozcelik said he came away impressed with the level of credibility Turkey has with key Iraqi actors (sic) and convinced that Turkey can, and should, do more to support broader U.S. interests in Iraq. On Kirkuk elections, he said that Council of Representatives (CoR) Speaker Mashadani agrees with an approach that Ozcelik also discussed with UNAMI SRSG de Mistura, that if agreement is not reached by June 15 to allow for Kirkuk elections along power-sharing lines, then a compromise would be sought to delay elections in Kirkuk by several months. Any delay on Kirkuk, however, must not be an obstacle to holding provincial elections elsewhere before the end of the year and the draft elections law should not be held up. Ozcelik said a Turkish PM Erdogan visit will take place either July 3 or 4 but that functional coordinators for both sides have yet to be named. He said plans to open a Turkish Consulate in Basrah were moving forward although options on a location are still being discussed. Finally, he said that he will be working to attract Turkish companies to Iraq and sought USG assistance in this effort. End Summary. Turkish Credibility an Underutilized Asset -------------- ¶2. (S) Special Envoy Ozcelik opened the meeting by offering an overall impression of his meetings with GOI officials during his current visit, which he characterized as very positive: "I was really happy to see we have credibility with all the important players. They respect us, they see us as a benign force and they will listen when we offer proper arguments." Such credibility, he stressed, puts Turkey in a position "to do more to help you," and not just on Kirkuk but more broadly, and especially as a counterbalance to Iranian influence in Iraq. PM Erdogan July Visit -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) Turning to plans for Turkish PM Erdogan to visit Baghdad in the coming weeks, Ozcelik said GOI President Talabani's upcoming trips to the U.S. and Greece made an Erdogan visit on July 3 unlikely, but that GOT and GOI officials are looking at July 4 as an alternate date. Ozcelik said that the visit would consist of PM Erdogan and other GOT ministers meeting with PM Maliki and their GOI ministerial counterparts, the signing of a joint declaration on cooperation in which President Talabani would participate, and a series of bilateral meetings between ministers on specific sectoral issues. In response to a question from S/I Satterfield on the naming of functional coordinators to oversee preparations for the visit and the joint declaration, Ozcelik said that as of now no one had been named on either side. The GOT had expectations that Deputy PM Salih would play that role for the GOI but that now appears unlikely, with FM Zebari now the most probable choice. For Turkey, while no final decision has been made, Ozcelik predicted Turkish FM Babacan would be given that role. S/I Satterfield reiterated the U.S. view that whomever is named for the GOI, that person should have broad expertise beyond political matters alone. Kirkuk -------------- ¶4. (S) Ozcelik said he had met with Speaker of the Parliament Mashadani the day before and had come to a mutual understanding on the way ahead that is the same as what Ozcelik discussed with UNAMI SRSG De Mistura: that the CoR committee working on reconciling the issues of whether a provision should be added to the draft elections law along power-sharing lines, which the Kurdish parties currently oppose (Ref B),would continue its work until the 15th. If they can reach a solution, wonderful. If not, then they would look for compromise language, perhaps calling for Kirkuk elections to be delayed by 3-4 months. The GOT, he stressed, did not want the issue of Kirkuk to derail efforts to hold provincial elections by the end of the year. He added that Speaker Mashadani and Iraqi Turkmen officials made clear to him that they know provincial elections need to move forward. BAGHDAD 00001772 002 OF 002 ¶5. (S) Offering muted criticism of the U.S. for not supporting the GOT's proposal on a special Kirkuk election (Ref C),citing Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani's "good statement" on power sharing in Kirkuk, Ozcelik said "if you had nudged Massoud a bit more, we could have gotten to another step." In response, S/I Satterfield said the U.S. had seen no indication that the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 formula would enjoy Kurdish support and was concerned at the disruption to consideration of the elections law in the CoR precipitated by the Turkish proposal. Satterfield observed that the Arabs and Turkmen blocs saw it as a way to obtain more power than they otherwise would; but that it was clear the Kurds would never agree to a law giving them minority status in Kirkuk. Ozcelik countered that the Kurds would soon see that their fears are misplaced - the dynamic will not be Arab plus Turkmen in alliance against Kurd, but rather Kurd plus Turkmen since that configuration of power is in Turkey's interest. He said he made these points to FM Zebari in a meeting with him yesterday and would be seeing President Talabani and PM Maliki the next day before departing for Ankara. Ozcelik stressed that Turkish interests dictate against seeing Kirkuk develop into a trouble spot: "the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline starts in Kirkuk and we want to see the oil flow." Basrah -------------- ¶6. (S) S/I Satterfield asked Ozcelik for an update on GOT plans to open a Consulate in Basrah. S/I Satterfield said the opening of a consulate would be an important step and recommended to Ozcelik that he bring this up with PM Maliki the following day. Maliki would be supportive but Ozcelik also needs to be mindful that the Maliki-Governor Wa'eli relationship is not good and calibrate his actions accordingly. Ozcelik said that the GOT is currently considering establishing its consulate downtown rather than on Basrah Air Station (as had been negotiated with the British). (Note: FM Zebari told Satterfield June 9 that the GOI wanted to move forward with the UK and Kuwait as initial partners in Basrah economic/commercial development, with Turkey to follow. End Note.) Economic Cooperation -------------- ¶7. (S) Before concluding the meeting, Ozcelik underlined that the GOT very much wants to attract more Turkish companies to Iraq and would welcome U.S. assistance in this effort. Opportunities for Turkish companies specializing in medical equipment is a particular area of interest. He also noted that in October, he hoped to organize an investment conference in Istanbul focused on Iraq, something he had highlighted to VP Adel Abdel Mehdi. 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