TURKISH SPECIAL ENVOY UPDATES S/I SATTERFIELD ON

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001772

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU IZ
SUBJECT: TURKISH SPECIAL ENVOY UPDATES S/I SATTERFIELD ON
PM ERDOGAN VISIT, KIRKUK, AND PLANS FOR TURKISH CONSULATE
IN BASRA; UNDERLINES TURKEY WANTS TO DO MORE TO ASSIST U.S.

REF: (A) BAGHDAD 1726 (B) BAGHDAD 1723 AND PREVIOUS
(C) ANKARA 971

Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (S) Summary: During a June 9 meeting, Turkish Special
Envoy Murat Ozcelik provided S/I Satterfield with an update
on the state of play of issues discussed ref A, following
Ozcelik's meetings in Baghdad over the past several days.
Overall, Ozcelik said he came away impressed with the level
of credibility Turkey has with key Iraqi actors (sic) and
convinced that Turkey can, and should, do more to support
broader U.S. interests in Iraq. On Kirkuk elections, he said
that Council of Representatives (CoR) Speaker Mashadani
agrees with an approach that Ozcelik also discussed with
UNAMI SRSG de Mistura, that if agreement is not reached by
June 15 to allow for Kirkuk elections along power-sharing
lines, then a compromise would be sought to delay elections
in Kirkuk by several months. Any delay on Kirkuk, however,
must not be an obstacle to holding provincial elections
elsewhere before the end of the year and the draft elections
law should not be held up. Ozcelik said a Turkish PM Erdogan
visit will take place either July 3 or 4 but that functional
coordinators for both sides have yet to be named. He said
plans to open a Turkish Consulate in Basrah were moving
forward although options on a location are still being
discussed. Finally, he said that he will be working to
attract Turkish companies to Iraq and sought USG assistance
in this effort. End Summary.

Turkish Credibility an Underutilized Asset
--------------


2. (S) Special Envoy Ozcelik opened the meeting by offering
an overall impression of his meetings with GOI officials
during his current visit, which he characterized as very
positive: "I was really happy to see we have credibility with
all the important players. They respect us, they see us as a
benign force and they will listen when we offer proper
arguments." Such credibility, he stressed, puts Turkey in a
position "to do more to help you," and not just on Kirkuk but
more broadly, and especially as a counterbalance to Iranian
influence in Iraq.

PM Erdogan July Visit
--------------


3. (S/NF) Turning to plans for Turkish PM Erdogan to visit
Baghdad in the coming weeks, Ozcelik said GOI President
Talabani's upcoming trips to the U.S. and Greece made an
Erdogan visit on July 3 unlikely, but that GOT and GOI
officials are looking at July 4 as an alternate date.
Ozcelik said that the visit would consist of PM Erdogan and
other GOT ministers meeting with PM Maliki and their GOI
ministerial counterparts, the signing of a joint declaration
on cooperation in which President Talabani would participate,
and a series of bilateral meetings between ministers on
specific sectoral issues. In response to a question from S/I
Satterfield on the naming of functional coordinators to
oversee preparations for the visit and the joint declaration,
Ozcelik said that as of now no one had been named on either
side. The GOT had expectations that Deputy PM Salih would
play that role for the GOI but that now appears unlikely,
with FM Zebari now the most probable choice. For Turkey,
while no final decision has been made, Ozcelik predicted
Turkish FM Babacan would be given that role. S/I Satterfield
reiterated the U.S. view that whomever is named for the GOI,
that person should have broad expertise beyond political
matters alone.

Kirkuk
--------------


4. (S) Ozcelik said he had met with Speaker of the Parliament
Mashadani the day before and had come to a mutual
understanding on the way ahead that is the same as what
Ozcelik discussed with UNAMI SRSG De Mistura: that the CoR
committee working on reconciling the issues of whether a
provision should be added to the draft elections law along
power-sharing lines, which the Kurdish parties currently
oppose (Ref B),would continue its work until the 15th. If
they can reach a solution, wonderful. If not, then they
would look for compromise language, perhaps calling for
Kirkuk elections to be delayed by 3-4 months. The GOT, he
stressed, did not want the issue of Kirkuk to derail efforts
to hold provincial elections by the end of the year. He
added that Speaker Mashadani and Iraqi Turkmen officials made
clear to him that they know provincial elections need to move
forward.

BAGHDAD 00001772 002 OF 002




5. (S) Offering muted criticism of the U.S. for not
supporting the GOT's proposal on a special Kirkuk election
(Ref C),citing Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime
Minister Nechirvan Barzani's "good statement" on power
sharing in Kirkuk, Ozcelik said "if you had nudged Massoud a
bit more, we could have gotten to another step." In
response, S/I Satterfield said the U.S. had seen no
indication that the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 formula would enjoy Kurdish
support and was concerned at the disruption to consideration
of the elections law in the CoR precipitated by the Turkish
proposal. Satterfield observed that the Arabs and Turkmen
blocs saw it as a way to obtain more power than they
otherwise would; but that it was clear the Kurds would never
agree to a law giving them minority status in Kirkuk.
Ozcelik countered that the Kurds would soon see that their
fears are misplaced - the dynamic will not be Arab plus
Turkmen in alliance against Kurd, but rather Kurd plus
Turkmen since that configuration of power is in Turkey's
interest. He said he made these points to FM Zebari in a
meeting with him yesterday and would be seeing President
Talabani and PM Maliki the next day before departing for
Ankara. Ozcelik stressed that Turkish interests dictate
against seeing Kirkuk develop into a trouble spot: "the
Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline starts in Kirkuk and we want to see
the oil flow."

Basrah
--------------


6. (S) S/I Satterfield asked Ozcelik for an update on GOT
plans to open a Consulate in Basrah. S/I Satterfield said
the opening of a consulate would be an important step and
recommended to Ozcelik that he bring this up with PM Maliki
the following day. Maliki would be supportive but Ozcelik
also needs to be mindful that the Maliki-Governor Wa'eli
relationship is not good and calibrate his actions
accordingly. Ozcelik said that the GOT is currently
considering establishing its consulate downtown rather than
on Basrah Air Station (as had been negotiated with the
British). (Note: FM Zebari told Satterfield June 9 that the
GOI wanted to move forward with the UK and Kuwait as initial
partners in Basrah economic/commercial development, with
Turkey to follow. End Note.)

Economic Cooperation
--------------


7. (S) Before concluding the meeting, Ozcelik underlined that
the GOT very much wants to attract more Turkish companies to
Iraq and would welcome U.S. assistance in this effort.
Opportunities for Turkish companies specializing in medical
equipment is a particular area of interest. He also noted
that in October, he hoped to organize an investment
conference in Istanbul focused on Iraq, something he had
highlighted to VP Adel Abdel Mehdi.

BUTENIS