SHIA REACTION TO SADR CALL FOR ANTI-SOFA PROTEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001637 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2023 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ IR SUBJECT: SHIA REACTION TO SADR CALL FOR ANTI-SOFA PROTEST REF: BAGHDAD 239 (THE STREET IS STRONGER THAN PARLIAMENT) Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) On May 27, Muqtada al-Sadr issued a statement decrying "the security agreement between the forces of darkness, by which I mean the occupation, and the current Iraqi Government." Sadr asked Iraqis to stage demonstrations throughout Iraq, and prodded political blocs to oppose the agreement through various means. Preliminary soundings among Shia contacts reveal little surprise that Sadr and his followers would resort to such measures to protest the agreement: indeed, a senior Sadrist told us several months ago that Sadrists would employ street demonstrations and various forms of civil disobedience to register opposition to such an agreement (reftel). CoR member Abdul Hadi al-Hassani of the Dawa Tanzim Party stated that much will depend on whether the Maliki government permits street protests, and how GOI security forces act in case such demonstrations go forward. He said the anger of Sadr's statement is directed not only at the USG but also at the Maliki government. Stating that he and other Dawa and Dawa Tanzim leaders are contacting senior Sadrists to urge that any demonstrations be conducted in a calm and non-violent manner, he opined that the GOI should not try to quash such protests but to let them run their course. Hassani said Sadr's statement will cast a negative shadow on the agreement because it implies that the agreement is already concluded when in fact it is still being negotiated. He believes that Sadr's statement will make even more difficult the already tough task of explaining agreement advantages to the Iraqi people and convincing them that the agreement serves their interests. ¶2. (C) Fadhila Party deputy bloc leader Bassim al-Sharif agreed with Hassani that the GOI should allow Sadrists to express themselves as long as they do so in a peaceful manner. He warned that trouble will likely arise if Sadrists are not allowed to have a public voice. Bassim noted that rumors are circulating widely that Grand Ayatollah Sistani and other senior Shia clerics are opposed to the agreement, and that the Shia public has accepted such rumors as fact. He added that Sadr's statement takes full advantage of this. Shia independent CoR member Qassim Daood affirmed the prevalence of such rumors, and blamed Tehran for disseminating false information about Sistani's views. He claimed that Sistani's personal representative in Lebanon personally assured him the rumors are not true and that Sistani will support any agreement as long as "all parties and blocs agree." Qassim predicted that Sadr's protest call would draw few people into the street at a time when GOI prestige is high due to declining violence and improving economic conditions. Senior ISCI advisor Haitham al-Husseini echoed Qassim's view by questioning Sadr's ability to draw mass protests in the wake of the GOI's successful security operation in Sadr City. Speaking by phone from Berlin where he is accompanying Amar al-Hakim (who has now fully taken over day-to-day ISCI leadership duties from his father, Abdel Aziz) in meetings with German government officials, Haitham predicted that Sadr's call would be disregarded by all but a relatively small number of Iraqis. Negative PCNS View Toward SOFA/SFA -------------- ¶3. (C) On a related subject, Fadhila's Bassim al-Sharif and Dawa Party dissident Falih Fayadh told us they had attended a May 26 meeting of the Political Council for National Security (PCNS) and both stated that meeting participants were decidedly negative after Maliki briefed them on the current status of negotiations and outlined the USG position on controversial issues such as arrest/detention, operational authority, legal immunities, and military installations. (The topic of discussion at the PCNS focused primarily on the SOFA, not the SFA). Falih said "all agreed that the American position is unacceptable" and Bassim added that no participant expressed support for any agreement that contained the USG position as it was presented (we note that these reports track with septel readouts provided to the Ambassador by President Talabani and Deputy CoR Speaker Attiyah). They said Sadrist Trend representatives did not attend the meeting. Bassim said there was no discussion about how Iraqi leaders should explain and "sell" the agreement to the Iraqi people, which he characterized as a key element. Stating that he and other Iraqi politicians are currently unwilling to say anything positive in public about an agreement that is still being negotiated, Bassim warned that the entire process will take time, "maybe more than one year." ¶4. (C) These engagement are consistent with engagements Ambassador Crocker and Brett McGurk held with senior leaders BAGHDAD 00001637 002 OF 002 over the past 72-hours, including Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, President Talabani, Tariq Hashimi, Barham Salih, Hoshyar Zebari, and Khalid al-Attiyah, all of whom emphasized the importance of concluding an agreement that Iraq's leaders can successfully "market" to the Iraqi people and the parliament. The leadership is determined to move forward, but they are also keenly aware of the history in this region and the fate of leaders who have signed similar security arrangements - arrangements that are transparent and open to public scrutiny, unlike our present-day SOFAs in the region - with the United States or the United Kingdom. BUTENIS