TRIBAL AWAKENINGS: SOUTHERNERS STILL HALF-ASLEEP

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000159

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV IR IZ
SUBJECT: TRIBAL AWAKENINGS: SOUTHERNERS STILL HALF-ASLEEP

REF: A. BASRAH 000115

B. BAGHDAD 00008

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is a joint Baghdad POL - PRT Maysan, Muthanna,
Karbala, Najaf, Dhi Qar, Diwaniyah, Babil, Wasit and REO
Basrah cable.


2. (C) Summary: There is no "Shi'a awakening" in southern
Iraq comparable to the ar-Ramadi based Sunni Awakening.
There is a plethora of independent tribal movements of
unknown influence, including groups in Basrah, Dhi Qar, and
Maysan and more clandestine groups in Karbala and Najaf.
Individual sheikhs in many southern governorates have also
approached U.S. REOs and PRTs in hopes of securing U.S.
support for a southern awakening movement. Independent
tribal movements and sheikhs currently lack real power and
influence, although they could pose a future political threat
to the religious parties if they are able to capitalize on
growing popular resentment over provincial government
performance. The establishment, both the Supreme Council
(ISCI) and Dawa, are watching with concern. In the meantime,
the southern tribes are no longer asleep, but not yet fully
awake. End Summary.

Independent Shi'a Awakenings
--------------


3. (S/NF) In an echo of the "awakenings" by Sunni tribes in
Anbar and elsewhere, several independent tribal movements
have also emerged in the south. The Independent National
Iraqi Tribal Assembly was started in Basrah by technocrats,
local NGOs, and sheikhs from 33 tribes. The group's stated
goals are to end sectarianism and the rule of religious
parties and to support a unified Iraq. The group is slowly
expanding into Maysan, Dhi Qar, and Muthanna.


4. (S/NF) A second group, the Maysan Tribal Council, is led
by Sheikh Muhammad Hassan Sajar al-Fartusi. Some 500 tribal
members from Maysan, Wasit and Basrah reportedly attended the
last council conference held in December 2007. The
conference culminated in the release of a 10 point statement
that featured the rejection of any armed groups, statements
supporting national unity and federalism, and calls for
parties to sign an honor document to maintain security.


5. (C) In addition to the Maysan Tribal Council, two other
tribal groups are reportedly based in Maysan. Both were
founded by Kareem Mahmoud al-Muhammedewi (Abu Hatim). The
first, the Maysan Nobles Council, was founded in March 2006
to LOBBY the provincial government and eventually field
candidates in provincial elections. Mahmoud subsequently
founded the second, the National Front for the Salvation of
the South, to combat Iranian activity. No further
information is available on either group.


6. (S/NF) There are rumors of Shi'a awakening councils being
established in Karbala, especially in the al-Husseiniya
sub-district in response to al-Qaeda activity in nearby North
Babil. These councils do not enjoy a large degree of popular
support because the public considers Karbala relatively safe
and sees no need for additional armed groups. Separate
reporting indicates that senior sheikhs in Najaf have founded
a secret Shi'a awakening movement with CDR of the 5th Border
Patrol Unit MG Ghazali in order to combat Iranian influence.
Finally, individual sheikhs from Basrah, Karbala, Dhi Qar,
Maysan and Babil have approached the Regional Embassy Offices
in Basrah and Hillah in hopes of receiving U.S. support for
an Anbar-style awakening movement against Iran.


7. (S/NF) The exact influence and strength of these
independent movements is unclear, but at present the tribes
appear unwilling or unable to meaningfully influence politics
without U.S. support. However, some sheikhs are tentatively
beginning to seek alliances with political independents and
other civil society groups. If they are able to form a
common political front, they could in theory capitalize on
resentment towards religious parties to compete in the next
round of provincial elections.

Iranian, Sadrist, and GOI opposition
--------------


8. (S/NF) Provincial governments in the south are uniformly
hostile to these independent movements. Abd al-Aziz Hakim
and other ISCI heavyweights have expressed concern over what
they admit are unsubstantiated rumors of USG support to
southern tribal awakening groups. In meetings with U.S.
officials, the ISCI and Da'wa governors of Babil, Najaf,
Karbala, and Diwaniyah have repeatedly warned that the
absence of al-Qaeda and the presence of ISF and strong

BAGHDAD 00000159 002 OF 002


provincial governments make any attempt to replicate the
Anbar awakening unnecessary and dangerous.


9. (S/NF) IRAN opposes any tribal awakening movement and is
pursuing its own strategy of tribal engagement. Iran's
al-A'lam satellite channel regularly condemns tribal
awakening as a U.S. government plot to divide Iraq and
undermine the GOI. In a meeting with the REO, Basrah sheiks
warned that IRAN was recruiting tribal leaders to preempt any
U.S. policy of tribal engagement (reftel A). In November,
Iran invited 60 sheikhs and family members from Wasit for a
15-day tour of the country that included visits to holy sites
and anti-American lectures (reftel B). Reporting suggests
that the Sadr movement is likewise opposed to these movements
and is trying to infiltrate or suppress movements in Basrah
and Maysan.

Comment
--------------


10. (S/NF) Many of the south's tribal leaders are not
content with their political and economic circumstances,
although the amount of frustration depends on the degree to
which political power mirrors tribal power in the south. In
the majority of the south the political dominance of the
religious parties has marginalized the sheikhs while their
tribesmen have become entangled in militia fighting. The
sheikhs are also envious of U.S. support for their Sunni
counterparts.


11. (S/NF) This frustration and envy has led to the
appearance of several independent tribal movements throughout
the south. It is unclear how much influence and power these
movements have, if any, but most seem limited at present to
an advocacy and civil service role. The U.S. would likely be
aware of any substantial tribal movement, if only because
provincial government officials would immediately accuse us
of providing the movement support. Many of these leaders are
mimicking the organization and rhetoric of the Anbar
awakening, albeit against IRAN rather than AQI, in hopes of
gaining U.S. support. Southern tribes could in theory
mobilize against Iranian and militia influence in the same
way their Sunni cousins banded together against al-Qaeda.
However, as Dawa member and advisor to the Prime Minister
Sami al-Askari admitted to us, this would be actively opposed
by the GOI and the major religious parties. Absent a radical
change in U.S. policy, which would trigger a major
confrontation with the government, there is little to no
chance of a spontaneous tribal awakening in the south. A
slightly more likely possibility is a "political awakening"
of tribal leaders participating in the next round of
provincial elections. To succeed, a political awakening
would have to contend with the considerable organizational
and militia strength of the religious parties, who much
prefer the tribes continue their slumber. End Comment.
CROCKER