PRT WASIT: GOVERNOR'S AIDE HINTS AT LARGER U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001586

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV IR
SUBJECT: PRT WASIT: GOVERNOR'S AIDE HINTS AT LARGER U.S.
ROLE IN ELECTIONS

Classified By: Acting Team Leader Rob Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (U) This is a PRT Wasit reporting cable.


2. (C) Summary. On May 22, PRT met with the director of the
Governor's Management Office, Hajji Kareem Yusif Shenein, to
discuss provincial elections. Kareem suggested the
possibility that the marja'iyya might guide voters if they
"see that the people are confused"; dismissed forecasts of
Sadrist gains in provincial elections; reported that "all the
parties" are creating independent "shell" parties that will
run as independents but which will act in league with them;
and hinted at a larger U.S. role in Wasit elections. End
Summary.


3. (C) Hajji Kareem, who acts as a kind of Chief of Staff to
Governor Latif Hamid Turfah, helped assemble the List 221
slate (Gathering of Iraqi Elites) that swept Wasit's
provincial elections in 2005. Kareem also leads Wasit's
branch of the Independent Gathering (Qutl al Mustakaleen).
In 2005, List 221 claimed 31 of Wasit Provincial Council's 41
members, including the Governor and PC Chair Mohammed Hassan
Jabir. While he professed agnosticism as to the likely role
of religious authorities in the 2008 elections, he did offer
that the marja'iyya "will only support coalitions that
include the different groups from within Iraq. Until now,
there is no indication that the marja'iyya are going to get
involved," said Kareem. "But when the marja'iyya see that
the people are confused, they will drop a hint about whom to
vote for. They will never enter directly. Unlike the
Iranian clerics, the marja'iyya in Iraq do not need political
leaders to be religious men."


4. (C) "The local religious people are going to have a lot
of influence over who the people vote for," Kareem continued.
"That is just how things are in Iraq." Asked if this would
especially benefit Sadrist Trend or Fadilah candidates, since
their parties, along with the followers of Sistani, subsidize
many mosques in Wasit, Kareem demurred. "The only way the
Sadrist Trend will exceed its current representation is if
very few people vote," Kareem opined. Presented with the
counter argument that Sadrist candidates had swept local
council elections in al Kut, al Hayy, Numaniyah, and
Suwayrah, Kareem said these elections were poorly organized,
attracted few voters, and were exactly the kind of contest
that benefit the better organized Sadrist Trend (and
Communists).


5. (C) "Many countries enter into our elections, because
they have their own interests, and because we are a weak
country right now," Kareem said. PRT noted that the USG is
providing aid focused on logistical matters and voter
education. Kareem said that the USG should listen to what
the majority of Iraqis want, and act accordingly. "For
instance, let us say there is the head of the Communist Party
in Wasit, and he is a good person. You should support him."
Kareem would not be drawn out regarding the nature of the
support he had in mind.


6. (C) Asked about reports from local PRT contacts,
including Sadrist Trend PC member Ahmed Hassan Ebrah
(strictly protect),that ISCI is creating "shell" independent
parties that would run mixed lists of party members and
independents, Kareem said "All the parties are doing this,
not just ISCI," adding that there has also been a move by
parties to pull in independents. "There is no independent
candidate who has what it takes to attract the voters'
interest," Kareem said, suggesting that independents,
presumably not including his own Independent Gathering, would
have to be absorbed into the larger parties to be relevant.


7. (C) Comment: Hajji Kareem and his colleagues hit the
electoral jackpot in 2005 in large part as a result of the
endorsement of the marja'iyya, and they are likely hoping
that lightning will strike twice. In previous meetings,
Kareem said that List 221 was deliberately designed to be
regionally diverse and supportable by religious authorities
including the marja'iyya, and the structure of his
Independent Gathering seems similarly designed with an eye to
optimizing his chances of eliciting clerical support.
Kareem's suggestion, however muted, that the USG consider
involving itself in provincial elections represents a
significant change in tone. In a meeting with the PRT in
February he said, eyebrows arched, that he was aware the PRT
had been meeting with individuals in the political sphere and
cautioned against the USG becoming involved in Iraqi
electoral politics. "If you support a candidate it will be
obvious to everyone," he repeatedly cautioned the PRT. End
Comment.
CROCKER