UNAMI TO PRESENT DISPUTED BOUNDARIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001556 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2023 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: UNAMI TO PRESENT DISPUTED BOUNDARIES RECOMMENDATIONS ON JUNE 4; PM MALIKI LUKEWARM ON MOVING AHEAD REF: BAGHDAD 1514 Classified By: Senior Advisor Thomas Krajeski for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) UNAMI now plans to present phase one of its disputed boundaries recommendations to the GOI Executive Council on June 4. UNAMI SRSG Staffan de Mistura told Senior Advisor May 19 that he now plans to wait until after the May 29 International Compact for Iraq (ICI) conference in Stockholm to officially present UNAMI's recommendations on phase one of its Disputed Internal Boundaries (DIBs) assistance to the Executive Council (aka the 3 1),rather than on May 22 as most recently envisioned. Phase one covers UNAMI's analysis on whether four initial districts should become part of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) or not. Its presentation to the Executive Council would also include what UNAMI D/SRSG for Political Affairs Andrew Gilmour characterized as a "chapeau" outlining UNAMI's methodology and process. ¶2. (C) UNAMI plans to recommend that Akre and Makhmour in Ninewa province go to the KRG, while Hamdaniya in Ninewa and BaladRooz/Mandali in Diyala remain in their current provinces (reftel). De Mistura said he preferred to avoid the possibility of political reaction -- once UNAMI's recommendations to the GOI are inevitably leaked to the public -- negatively distracting the ICI from its core goals. KRG Minister for Extra-Regional Affairs Mohammed Ihsan told Senior Advisor on May 18 that he also preferred to wait until after Stockholm, but because he wanted to ensure de Mistura was in Iraq to "take the heat." ¶3. (C) De Mistura briefed on his May 18 meeting with PM Maliki, which was his first meeting on Article 140 issues with the Prime Minister himself rather than key advisors. De Mistura said Maliki initially tried to downplay the necessity of his own involvement and cautioned UNAMI about moving too fast on resolving it, arguing that there were too many other difficult issues in Iraq to tackle disputed territories now. De Mistura opined that Maliki did not seem to want to use any of his Basra political capital for 140. To de Mistura's offer to halt UNAMI's work, PM Maliki immediately backpedaled, said no and ultimately agreed that the proposal could be presented to the Executive Council on June 4. De Mistura reminded Maliki that once these recommendations were presented, it was up to the GOI to act upon them and the GOI could take what time it believes it needs. ¶4. (C) De Mistura expects the GOI to sit on its initial recommendations for awhile, a long while. UNAMI will work on the much harder phases two and three and present their findings a bit later in the summer. De Mistura said he hopes to keep the UNAMI profile low enough not to produce political turmoil but to have enough momentum in the process to demonstrate results, particularly to the Kurds. CROCKER