PRT WASIT: PC MEMBERS SEE TOUGH ROAD AHEAD FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001432 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2018 TAGS: PGOV IZ SUBJECT: PRT WASIT: PC MEMBERS SEE TOUGH ROAD AHEAD FOR INDEPENDENTS REF: BAGHDAD 699 Classified By: PRT Team Leader Rob Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is a PRT Wasit reporting cable. ¶2. (C) Summary: In May 3 meetings with the PRT, Provincial Council (PC) members Siraj Ali and Haji Jassem discussed the relations with other Shi'a parties and the challenges facing independents in the next election. Jassem identified the primary challenge as financial, estimating that a successful bid for a PC seat would require 60 - 80,000 USD. He predicted that the difficulties facing independent candidates would lead to an increase in Sadrist representation on the PC. End Summary. ¶3. (C) On May 3 the PRT met with new PC principal deputy Siraj Anwar Ali and PC member Haji Jassem Mohammed Ritha Aziz. Deputy Siraj explained that he was elected to the PC as a member of a three-party coalition under the umbrella of the Shi'a Political Assembly, which includes the Sadrist Trend, the Islamic Democratic Trend, and Ahmed Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress. While the parties got elected under the same umbrella, they do not caucus together, per Siraj, who said he works with Sadrist members "for the benefit of Kut" and on issues such as detainees, although he "does not defend violence." (Note. Siraj was elected First Deputy vice Sadrist member Ahmed Hussein Ebrah, who did run for reelection, suggesting a trading of seats. End note.) ¶4. (C) Independent member Haji Jassem joined the meeting and offered his assessment that the big parties in the COR will "use the elections law to achieve their goals" of being reelected. "The big parties that run things are going to use regulations to paralyze the small parties," Jassem said, adding rhetorically, "Why would the independents be elected, when the parties have all the advantages?" ¶5. (C) Jassem identified lack of funding as the major hurdle for independent candidates. "We have 17 Qadas and Nahiyas," Jassim said. "Just imagine the cost, if somebody is going to travel to all 17 and give speeches. Then they need to print 5,000 posters, that's $10,000. Add in $25,000 to register the party. Our estimates are that a PC candidate needs $60-80,000 to mount a credible candidacy," Jassem said, "not including the registration fee." ¶6. (C) The result of this lack of funding and organization may be gains by the parties, or at least an increase in Sadrist representation on the PC, Jassim speculated. "There are only four Sadrists on the PC, but their numbers will increase," Jassem said. "We estimate the Sadrists at 20 percent of the electorate, but they are very organized. They turn out with their families. The 80 percent, meanwhile, are fragmented. Look at the Communists. They are disciplined. There are two of them in the PC. There are two of them in many of the local councils. They have a small but reliable base of support." ¶7. (C) Comment: Wasit's political class oscillates back and forth between enumerating the huge obstacles facing independents and predicting a crushing defeat for the major parties. The obstacles are real enough; the PRT just learned of the reported demise of one such independent party, the "People of Wasit" (reftel). Either way, Sadrist representation on the PRT is artificially low due to their party's boycott of the provincial elections in 2005. If saturation-level Sadrist representation on many of Wasit's local councils is any indication, the Sadrist Trend's fortunes in the Provincial Council should improve regardless of the performance of Wasit independents. End Comment. CROCKER