PRT MAYSAN: MAYSAN ATMOSPHERICS

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 001349

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2018
TAGS: PINS PGOV MOPS IR
SUBJECT: PRT MAYSAN: MAYSAN ATMOSPHERICS

REF: BAGHDAD 1198

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Darrell Jenks for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (U) This is a PRT Maysan reporting cable.


2. (S) Summary: A Maysani employee reported to the PRT that
Maysanis do not support Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) and hope the
Iraqi government will conduct military operations in Maysan
to bring stability to the province. Maysanis expressed
similar views to PRT engineers who recently traveled to the
north of the governorate. The degree to which Maysanis would
actually welcome armed intervention is difficult to gauge,
but past history suggests that locals would react negatively
to any enduring foreign military presence. Tribal leaders
also told the engineers that the Governor was in negotiations
with the GOI and hoped to forestall any military operations
by cooperating with the Iraqi Army (IA) and local sheikhs to
arrest suspects. End Summary.


3. (S) On 20 April, a PRT employee located in Maysan
reported that on the nights of the 19th and 20th of April,
Sadrists sung songs (howsat) and fired into the air in the
streets of al-'Amara to show that they were ready to face
their enemies. IEDs were also reported to be planted along
some roads inside the city. In general, he said that
security in Maysan is such that when a person goes out in the
morning, he will not be sure that he will return home at
night. Our source claimed that people were happy about the
government's Basra initiative. He added that Maysanis hope
the government and Iraqi Army will come into Maysan to
enforce security and law, restoring peace and enabling
children to go to school. In preparation for the rumored
operation, the residents of al-'Amara were stocking up on
water and food.


4. (S) On 22 April 2008, the same employee reported that
many people were afraid when Muqtada as-Sadr announced that
he will make open war against the government. Our source
claimed that the people approved of Iraqi Foreign Minister
Zubary's statement that the government will not allow as-Sadr
to make open war and the government will face him strongly.
The employee added that Maysan is now being seen as a safe
haven for Jaysh al-Mehdi (JAM) leadership and they are
flocking to Maysan from other provinces. Facilities have
been made available to them by Maysan as-Sadr office. This
correlates with separate reporting indicating that elements
of JAM from various parts of Iraq intended to move into
al-'Amara.


5. (S) From April 20-22 PRT engineers traveled to the Qada'a
of 'Ali al Gharbi and the sub-towns of at-Teeb (border) and
surrounding villages in northern Maysan to conduct
assessments. In their encounters with the villagers and
tribal leadership in 'Ali al-Gharbi, the employees reported
that the people were very excited about the events in Basra
and hoped similar operations would be conducted in Maysan.
The Maysanis also said security is better in the northern
half of the province, explaining that travel in the south is
very unsafe and people refuse to travel after sunset.
Finally, the tribal leadership mentioned that the Governor
was engaged in discussions over a list of criminals to be
apprehended with the Iraqi Army and tribal shaykhs. The
Governor wants to reach an agreement to stave off an Iraqi
Army operation in Maysan. This correlates with a previous
statement made by PM Maliki (reftel).


6. (S) Comment: Our inability to travel to Maysan makes it
difficult to assess the degree to which most Maysan
inhabitants would really welcome armed intervention.
However, given the British experience in 2003 and 2004, we
are fairly sure that the Maysanis would resent any long-term
foreign presence in the province. End comment.
BUTENIS