PRT MUTHANNA: DANGEROUS BUSINESS: IRANIAN EFFORTS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001201

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS IR IZ
SUBJECT: PRT MUTHANNA: DANGEROUS BUSINESS: IRANIAN EFFORTS
TO SHAPE S. IRAQ POLITICS

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Paul O'Friel for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (U) This is a PRT Muthanna reporting cable.


2. (S/REL MCFI) SUMMARY: Post Basra, Sadrist fortunes are
reviving in Muthanna, coupled with growing disenchantment
with Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and Dawa,a
politicians who control the local and provincial government.
However, a third force ) Iran ) may be maneuvering to fill
the gap between the still-not-rehabilitated Sadrists and the
discredited ISCI/Dawa,a politicians. Multiple local sources
allege that Iran is spending "millions" of dollars to
cultivate a series of "independent" candidates to run in the
upcoming provincial elections. Governor Marzook, who is
allied with neither ISCI nor Da'wa, is worried about Iranian
influence, but believes the elections could provide an
opportunity to change political borders. He urges the United
States support politicians who back secular federalism. If
the stories about Tehran developing a list of "independent"
candidates to do its bidding are true, we face numerous
challenges ahead, for the Iranians appear to have covered
their bets at the political table by providing support to
each and all of the political forces: ISCI/Dawa'a; the
Sadrists; and, the "independents." As one of our well placed
contacts said, "This is very dangerous business." END SUMMARY.


3. (C) The after shocks from Basra have begun to reverberate
through the neighboring province of Muthanna. Under the
nation-wide agreement between the Maliki government and
Moqtada al-Sadr, local police have released the 50 or so
Sadrists they preemptively arrested before the kick-off of
the Basra anti-militia operation in late March. The Sadrists
have also been given permission to re-open their Rumaytha
offices ) a long-standing demand. The Office the Martyr
Sadr (OMS) bureaus were closed after successful security
force operations in December 2006 broke up Sadrist attempts
to expand their power in the province.


4. (C) The Sadrist movement in Muthanna, which has lacked
effective leadership since December 2006, also has a new
head, Sheikh Muhannad Abdul Hussein al-Karbala'i, who we
understand is quite capable. Our sources tell us that the
well-educated and cultivated Sheikh is several cuts above his
more thuggish followers.


5. (C) The revived fortunes of the Sadrists are coupled with
growing disenchantment with Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
(ISCI) and Da'wa politicians who control the local and
provincial government. "What you have to understand," one
well informed contact told us, "is that people are fed up )
there is widespread dissatisfaction with the increase in
water, electricity, and telephone fees." ISCI/Da'wa have
been discredited because of their perceived corruption and
inability to provide or improve basic services.


6. (C) Another local observer commented, "Many people are
disillusioned with what they have seen of our early efforts
at democracy -- politicians elected in 2005 had nothing;
today they are wealthy." He noted the widespread practice of
paying a bribe to secure a job with the security services and
the relationship between the political parties and the
police, saying, "There are some 250 policemen in Muthanna
working for just one political party." The widespread
perception that Prime Minister Maliki launched the Basra
operation as a political gambit to crush the Sadrists before
the October elections has not helped ISCI/Da'wa's reputation.


7. (S/REL MCFI) A third force may be maneuvering to fill the
gap between the still-not-rehabilitated Sadrists and the
discredited ISCI/Da'wa politicians ) Iran. According to
multiple local sources, Iran has singled out a series of
potential "independent" candidates for the upcoming
provincial elections. Quietly funneling money to selected
individuals, the Iranians have allegedly identified local
businessmen and other community leaders who, in gaining
office, would serve Tehran,s interests. The money, which is
said to come in the form of business opportunities,
no-interest loans, or gifts of cars, houses, cattle, and
land, purportedly numbers ¬ in the thousands, but in the
millions8 of dollars.


8. (S/REL MCFI) One prominent commentator bitterly remarked,
"The Iranians are manipulating events in Iraq to serve their
purposes. There will be no peace if we let the Iranians
interfere with our affairs." Truly independent candidates,
he said, are needed to demonstrate that they are not corrupt,
and that they have Iraq's interest at heart, not Iran,s.
"Without a true awakening to Iraq,s needs, there will be no
democracy in this country."


9. (S/REL MCFI) This concern about Iran,s intentions

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reaches to the highest levels of the province. In an April
13 meeting with the Provincial Team Leader, Governor Ahmed
Marzook al-Salal expressed concern about where his country
was heading, saying it was a "very dangerous situation."
"What democracy do we have in Iraq? The turban heads are
running the country." He worried that without true
independent candidates, Iranian-influenced ISCI would succeed
in its goal of creating a nine-province Shia,a region in
southern Iraq. He argued vehemently that this was the wrong
approach. "It will partition the country, and make Muthanna
and the rest of the south part of Iran." Marzook, who is an
independent, stressed that no true Iraqi wanted the country
to be divided. He noted that the upcoming provincial
elections posed a danger, but also represented an opportunity
to change political borders. Marzook urged that the United
States support politicians who would back secular federalism.
"The climate is right to fix things," he stated.


10. (S/REL MCFI) COMMENT: Muthanna represents in microcosm
the challenges inherent in southern Iraq, where our knowledge
of the nature and extent of the Iranian networks is still
unclear. If the stories about Tehran developing a list of
"independent" candidates to do its bidding are true, we face
numerous challenges ahead, for the Iranians appear to have
covered their bets at the political table by providing
support to each and all of the political forces: ISCI/Dawa'a;
the Sadrists; and, the "independents." As one of our well
placed contacts said, "This is very dangerous business."
CROCKER