AYAD ALLAWI: RELUCTANT FOR IRAQIYYA LIST TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001186 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ SUBJECT: AYAD ALLAWI: RELUCTANT FOR IRAQIYYA LIST TO REJOIN THE GOI, FEARS IRAN'S INFLUENCE IN IRAQ REF: BAGHDAD 2018 Classified By: PolCouns Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S/NF) Summary. Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi told PolCouns and Special Assistant to the President Brett McGurk on April 13 other GOI leaders are encouraging Iraqiyya to rejoin the GOI. He is open to this goal, he said, but demands that PM Maliki clear his name in unfair allegations from the Ministry of Interior (MoI) that he has ties with Jund al-Samma (Soldiers of Heaven). Allawi said he does not support the Sadrists and their close ties to militias (i.e. Jaysh al-Mahdi) and Iran. Allawi noted he is trying to revitalize the Iraqiyya List through leadership changes and restructuring its branch offices. Regarding provincial elections, Allawi opined the Iraqiyya List may lose seats due to the rising influence of religious parties and Iran. He is supportive of the Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) between Iraq and the United States, but is not involved in the negotiations at this stage. End summary. DEMANDS FOR RETURN TO THE GOI -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) Allawi told PolCouns and McGurk he is actively reaching out to GOI leaders, who are encouraging Iraqiyya to rejoin the government. In the past several days, Allawi said he met with KRG President Massoud Barzani in Irbil with President Jalal Talabani, VP Adil Abdul Mahdi, and VP Tariq al-Hashimi regarding this issue. To achieve a national unity government, he said, there should be a nucleus of all parties as part of the decisionmaking process. His other demand, he said, is that PM Maliki must clear his name of the baseless allegations that he has ties to Jund al-Samma (Soldiers of Heaven). When asked, Allawi responded that he has not met with PM Maliki on this issue personally for fear that he will be arrested, but sends representatives from his party to political meetings instead. ¶3. (S/NF) Allawi said if a national unity government is possible based on partnership and equal views between all parties, then the Iraqiyya List will want to be part of it. "Otherwise it is better for us to remain in the opposition," he said. He fears, however, PM Maliki's administration will not accept this type of democracy. Allawi acknowledged there is good will amongst the POLITICAL blocs right now, except maybe the Sadrists, to work together again in the GOI. Allawi agreed to remain in Baghdad to work on solidifying his political bloc and building a non-sectarian POLITICAL movement. THE SADRISTS, MILITIAS, AND IRAN -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) Allawi said the Sadrists recently reached out to him, but he told them he doesn't support them. He said he talked to Nasar Rubaie and told him, "You can't have Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) and be part of the government." Allawi is against militias and the Sadrists' close relationship with JAM and Iran. Allawi complained the militias are institutionalized right now. "The Ministry of Interior (MoI) needs to purge all of its militias," he said. Allawi called Iran's influence a "strategic danger," particularly in the Southern provinces. Allawi said Iraq wants good RELATIONS with Iran, but not interference. He stressed PM Maliki and others need to push Iraq away from Iran. COMMUNIST PARTY WITHDRAWAL, RESTRUCTURING OF IRAQIYYA LIST -------------- -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) In a response to a question regarding the Communist Party withdrawal from the Iraqiyya List, Allawi said he is "changing the leadership." He added new signs and posters are going up, as well as the restructuring of Iraqiyya's branch offices. He is seeking support from unions, NGOs, politicians, intellectuals, tribal sheikhs, and others, he said. He referenced a preparatory committee meeting in the next month to prepare the Iraqiyya List for the upcoming provincial elections. Once we have our structure, he said, the Iraqiyya List will start announcing its views on various policy issues. "We want to play within the framework of the political process," he stressed. PROSPECTS FOR IRAQIYYA LIST IN PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS -------------- -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) Most of Allawi's comments regarding provincial elections were laden with fears of Iran's influence in the election process and results. "Iran will dominate the results," he said. Regarding Iraqiyya's prospects, he surmised it might lose some more seats this year as a result. BAGHDAD 00001186 002 OF 002 More support, he said, is needed for non-sectarian parties to make a difference. He fears Iran will undermine security and Iraq's provincial elections this year. STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) After complaining about Iran's growing role inside Iraq, Allawi responded positively to the need for Iraq to develop a strong strategic partnership with the United States this year, and the importance of having his voice as a formal part of the process, particularly through the POLITICAL Council for National Security (PCNS). McGurk explained the Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) will go to the PCNS and then the Council of Representatives (CoR) to ensure there is political consultation with the party blocs at each step. Allawi noted that he hasn't seen a draft, but is supportive of the agreement in concept. He is optimistic that it can help strengthen institutions in Iraq and weaken Iran's ties. He emphasized, however, that his present opposition role, and lack of a formal voice in the process, is due to the current government's decisions, not his own. CROCKER