TALABANI APPARENTLY PERSUADES IRAN TO CONDEMN IZ

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 001115

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (CHANGING CLASSIFICATION)

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS PINR IZ
SUBJECT: TALABANI APPARENTLY PERSUADES IRAN TO CONDEMN IZ
ROCKET ATTACKS


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Patricia M. Butenis for
reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (S) SUMMARY: NSC Senior Director for Iraq and
Afghanistan Brett McGurk spoke on April 7 with Iraqi
President Jalal Talabani to discuss the ongoing political
situation including the recently held PCNS meeting and the
Executive Council meeting scheduled for that evening.
Talabani reiterated that Iran wants more serious talks with
the U.S. as a result of the violence in the south. After
McGurk pushed back that their request rings hollow with
rockets still falling on International Zone (IZ),Talabani
appears to have persuaded Tehran to issue a statement on
April 8 condemning the rocket attacks. On the domestic
political scene, Talabani observed a greater sense of unity
among the Iraqi political leadership, increased support for
Prime Minister Maliki, and near-total isolation of the
Sadrists. Talabani also confirmed the Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG) had agreed on a vastly reduced cabinet which
would exclude KRG Oil Minister Ashti Hawrami ) often
considered one cause of the stalemate over national
hydrocarbon legislation. End summary.


2. (S) McGurk noted that Iranian rhetoric with regard to
positive intentions rings hollow with rockets still falling
daily on the International Zone (IZ) ) and noting the
casualties suffered the previous night. Talabani pledged to
call Iranian Ambassador Qomi with a firm message that the
rockets must stop, as per Soleimani,s early April pledge to
Talabani. Several hours later, Talabani called to report
that Soleimani told Qomi Iran does not control every group
firing rockets, but would restrain the groups it does
control. Talabani said he told the Iranians, "you are not
keeping your promises and we are noticing." Talabani then
called back 20 minutes later to say Qomi had a follow up
message for him. According to Talabani, Soleimani followed
up the first conversation with Qomi and asked him to tell
Talabani that Tehran would issue a statement the following
day condemning the rocket attacks on the IZ. (Comment: The
following afternoon the Iranian Foreign Ministry did in fact
condemn the attacks on the IZ for the first time.)


3. (S) Echoing the views of other senior leaders, Talabani
agreed there is a new sense of unity following the Basrah
operation. Maliki and Hashemi,s relationship in particular
has improved; Talabani noted that Hashemi during the fighting
had offered to join Maliki in Basrah to show support.
Talabani repeatedly expressed optimism that this could
trigger Tawafuq,s return to the cabinet, saying Maliki and
Hashemi agree the time is right and will meet Wednesday to
discuss specific ministries and ministers. One of the most
important results of Basrah, in Talabani,s estimation, was
that Maliki learned he has genuine backing ) political
leaders of all stripes had rallied around him even in the
operation,s first days, when the battlefield outcome
remained in doubt.


4. (S) Talabani claimed the Sadrists had been isolated and
on the defensive at the April 5 meeting of the Political
Council for National Security (PCNS). Every party in
attendance condemned the activities of JAM ) and in many
cases of Iran as well ) including representatives of former
Prime Ministers Jafari and Allawi, who in recent months
tentatively have courted the Sadrists. The meeting,s final
communiqu, according to Talabani, reflected a dramatic
breakthrough and a new sense of unity among Iraqi leaders.
"I have never felt as good as I do now," Talabani said. On
the Sadrists, Talabani said their political isolation would
help to marginalize the militant elements within JAM. He
claimed to have told the Sadrists if they would abandon
violence and pursue their aims politically, he would be their
"lawyer" to the U.S. and GOI, but will not accept or support
them otherwise. Talabani claimed the Sadrists are speaking
more moderately and blame Jaysh al-Mahdi excesses on a
handful of extremists, prompting Talabani to encourage
limited prisoner releases or other gestures to encourage
peaceful dissent.


5. (S) McGurk congratulated Talabani on the agreement
between his Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) to shrink the bloated
cabinet of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Talabani
highlighted the transfer of the KRG Energy Ministry from the
KDP to the PUK. He specified this will mean unloading
current KRG Oil Minister Ashti Hawrami, whose personal feud
with GOI Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani has contributed to
the stalemate on national hydrocarbon legislation. When
asked what role Hawrami would take on, Talabani smiled and
said, "he'll go back to London!"
BUTENIS