AMAR AL-HAKIM ON MALIKI, BILATERAL SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000101 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2023 TAGS: PGOV IZ SUBJECT: AMAR AL-HAKIM ON MALIKI, BILATERAL SECURITY AGREEMENT, AND ELECTIONS REF: 07 BAGHDAD 3799 (ISCI AND FEDERALISM) Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: ISCI Heir Apparent Amar al-Hakim told S/I Satterfield January 13 that ISCI agrees with the USG position that the Maliki government must operate in a more inclusive manner and should start by reactivating the "Three Plus One" leadership mechanism. Amar, who delivered a well-publicized January 11 mosque sermon that called for Maliki to reach out to Sunnis and disaffected Shia parties in order to promote national unity, said he detected new flexibility throughout Iraq's political leadership. Hakim said ISCI fully supports the U.S. wish to negotiate a long-term bilateral security agreement with a broadly-representative GOI team, adding that he and his father, ISCI Chairman Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, are already preparing the Iraqi public for such an agreement through public meetings and speeches. He maintained that ISCI shares the USG view that expeditious CoR passage of pending provincial powers and elections laws is needed, but complained that Sadrist tampering within the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) threatens to undermine the legitimacy of future provincial elections. End Summary. Helpful Public Statements from Father and Son Hakim -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Satterfield expressed USG appreciation and gratitude for a recent public statement by the elder Hakim that expressed general support for Awakening movements ("people's committees" in the ISCI parlance) and for Amar's well-publicized Friday January 11 sermon at Baghdad's Baratha Mosque in which he called for Maliki to reach out to Sunnis and the Shia Fadhila Party and the Sadrist Trend and bring them back into the government fold in order to promote national unity. Amar replied that he and his father understand the importance of explaining political developments to Iraq's masses because "when leaders step forward, the others will follow." He added that such public statements also motivate the CoR to show courage in dealing with difficult but vitally important national issues. Amar said ISCI agrees with the USG stance that the Maliki government must operate in a more inclusive manner, remarking that Maliki should start by reactivating the "Three Plus One" leadership mechanism and implementing the leaders' decisions. Satterfield underscored that the USG wants to see the present, dysfunctional, Iraqi government work - and is not seeking a new government - points on which Hakim said his father and Ayatollah Sistani concur exactly. ¶3. (C) Relaxed and jovial, the black-turbaned Amar praised passage of the De-Baathification law and maintained that no one benefits from "the current political vacuum" that can be dealt with only if Iraq's leaders demonstrate real will to overcome national problems. He said he detected new-found flexibility among Iraq's leaders, particularly the Sunnis, as evidenced by VP al-Hashemi's inclusion of an ISCI member in the delegation he took recently to Kuwaiti where he delivered a positive, nationalist message. Such increased flexibility will reduce tension, Amar stated, which in turn allows Iraq's leaders to work through "personal differences" and focus on issues of vital national importance. ¶4. (C) With regard to upcoming negotiations over a long-term bilateral security agreement, Amar said he shares our view that the GOI negotiating team should be comprised of members who represent all of Iraq's political leaders and competent GOI ministries. Stating that the agreement will serve the interests of the Iraqi people, he indicated that he and his father have already begun to shape public receptivity to the agreement by talking about it in public meetings and speeches. The Hakims may have occasion to make such points during the important upcoming Shia religious celebration of Ashura: Shia groups from throughout Iraq have already begun to gather in Hakim's housing compound, and we passed throngs of women draped head to toe in black cloth and young boys sporting ski caps embroidered with "Ya Ali" who were milling about pilgrim tents and open-air kitchens as we departed the ISCI compound. Supportive of Elections but Wary of IHEC -------------- ¶5. (C) Amar said ISCI shares the USG view that expeditious CoR passage of pending provincial powers and elections laws is needed, opining that Fadhila and the Sadrists have a positive view of the CoR's draft provincial powers bill (Maysan's Governor, a Sadrist, personally told Amar of his support for the draft). Repeating a warning that he has sounded during previous meetings with USG officials (reftel), he complained at some length that Sadrist shenanigans within BAGHDAD 00000101 002 OF 002 the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) threatens to undermine the legitimacy of future provincial elections. Amar said he had emphasized this point to UN officials who have yet to take corrective measures to ensure that coming elections, like the elections of 2005, are accepted by winners and losers alike. He asked the USG to weigh in with the UN on this important topic. Amar confided that ISCI is still mulling over the relative merits of an "open" or "closed" election list system, maintaining that each approach has good and bad points. Satterfield interjected that experience has shown us that a democracy functions best when there is a direct link between electors and those to whom they give their votes. CROCKER