OPPOSITION TABLES NO CONFIDENCE MOTION AGAINST

C O N F I D E N T I A L ATHENS 000452 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON MK GR SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TABLES NO CONFIDENCE MOTION AGAINST KARAMANLIS GOVERNMENT REF: ATHENS 441 Classified By: Ambassador Daniel V. Speckhard for 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Main opposition PASOK leader George Papandreou tabled a motion of no confidence against the Karamanlis administration March 26, following a debate punctuated by sharp exchanges between government and opposition on the issue of social security reform. Although it is unlikely PASOK will muster the 151 votes in a 300-seat house it requires to pass the motion (Note: the Government has a 151-seat majority in the Parliament and a de facto 152-seat majority with the one "independent," a former ruling party MP, consistently voting with the Government. End Note), this motion stops the clock for the final vote on the social security reform bill, which had been expected to take place the evening on March 26 (reftel). President of Parliament Sioufas has declared a three-day debate on the motion of no confidence, as provided by the parliamentary rules of procedure, to conclude on March 28 with a roll call vote on the motion. ¶2. (U) Motions of no confidence are a rarity in Greece; most local pundits immediately began to cast PASOK's move as an attempt to show leadership on social security reform, lest left coalition SYRIZA party's calls for a referendum on the social security reform bill further erode PASOK's public standing on this issue. PASOK's leadership remains unnerved by public opinion polls showing unprecedented defections from PASOK to SYRIZA. Meanwhile, SYRIZA parliamentary caucus leader Alekos Alavanos was scheduled to pay a visit to President Papoulias late on the morning of March 26 to highlight SYRIZA,s opposition to the pension reform bill, and SYRIZA leaders have begun collecting signatures for a petition calling for a referendum. ¶3. (C) Comment: For the next three days, the Parliament's only agenda is the no confidence motion. Given the proximity of the NATO Summit, and our ongoing efforts to encourage maximum flexibility from the Government on the Macedonia name issue, the timing could not be worse. Although PASOK's motion was driven by domestic politics and popular discontent with the Government's social security reform package, the pending vote of no confidence will not embolden the overnment to be more flexible or creative on the Macedonia name issue, at least through the Friday night vote of confidence. The final vote on social security reform is now likely to be pushed back to Monday, March 30 -- which will give unions and the opposition time to organize additional strikes and public protests against the Government. End Comment. SPECKHARD